by oiless » Sat 24 Sep 2005, 13:58:27
I've always know that oil was a finite resource, (that's obvious to even the meanest intelligence) but when I was in school in the early '70's we were taught in social studies that Canada had sufficient oil reserves to last us 1100 years, at our current rate of consumption.
Several years ago I was cursing my commute particularly hard one morning, for a number of reasons, and wondering when this sort of foolishness would end, I had some thoughts.
First, I knew that the figure from school had to be wrong, we've been selling our oil as cheap and as fast as we could for as long as I can remember, (to quote Pierre Eliot Trudeau: "we don't want find ourselves locked into the petroleum age") so it was unlikely that we had anything like that much left.
The second thought that I had (I had never heard of Hubbert at this point)
was that oil was unlikely to be flat in production, that production would rise from field discovery, peak, and then decline.
I left it at that for a while, then in the last couple of years my feeling became that we were almost at maximum oil production, and since I have more time now, and the internet has made research easier, I began researching the matter, discovered that my original hypothesis was in fact common knowledge.
Here's to re-inventing the wheel. I do it all the time.