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"The Long Emergency: ..." James Howard Kunstler

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Re: Kunstler's 'The Long Emergency' review in American Scien

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Sun 21 Aug 2005, 22:50:45

Yes.
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Re: Kunstler's 'The Long Emergency' review in American Scien

Unread postby basketballjones » Mon 22 Aug 2005, 00:01:49

Read Kunstlers diary entry entitled Harry Shearer's War. You'll notice he says he is not "pro-war" but instead is trying to describe what he thinks the war is.

Those people who are anti war need to re-evaluate just how anti war they really are. If they really are as anti war as they say they are then they should give up their cars, airconditioning and trips to walmart. Or, those people must decide what's important and if they dont want to give up their lifestyle then war IS the answer. If these people really wanted to protest the war they would give up using energy.

Btw, It's probably the same people who won't allow any new LNG terminals being built but heat their homes with natural gas.
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Re: Kunstler's 'The Long Emergency' review in American Scien

Unread postby sventvkg » Mon 22 Aug 2005, 01:23:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basketballjones', 'R')ead Kunstlers diary entry entitled Harry Shearer's War. You'll notice he says he is not "pro-war" but instead is trying to describe what he thinks the war is.

Those people who are anti war need to re-evaluate just how anti war they really are. If they really are as anti war as they say they are then they should give up their cars, airconditioning and trips to walmart. Or, those people must decide what's important and if they dont want to give up their lifestyle then war IS the answer. If these people really wanted to protest the war they would give up using energy.

Btw, It's probably the same people who won't allow any new LNG terminals being built but heat their homes with natural gas.


Sorry, I don't buy that one bit..Just because there are modern comforts out there like Cars and AC doesn't mean there aren't other alternative means thought up or even in existance that can provide the necessary energy for humans to continue out technical development in a modern manner..I believe it's big oil and the elite interests it represents who have actively supressed other means of energy from ever coming to light...I mean, I have seen the Japanese car that runs on Water!! This stuff exists out there...We just don't get to see it.....

War is NOT the answer..That is small minded thinking at it's worst.
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Re: Kunstler's 'The Long Emergency' review in American Scien

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Mon 22 Aug 2005, 02:54:06

Sorry to say it but he's covering his tracks, he's embarassingly pro-war, read through his whole blog. And his book devotes a fair amount of space to slamming those awful Muslims and how they all want to kill us etc.

He's a good writer but I'll take Savinar or Heinberg or Savinar etc any time when all's said and done.
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Re: Kunstler's 'The Long Emergency' review in American Scien

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Mon 22 Aug 2005, 02:54:35

Oops or Deffeyes hehe
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Re: Kunstler's 'The Long Emergency' review in American Scien

Unread postby seldom_seen » Mon 22 Aug 2005, 03:14:13

David Ehrenfeld is an excellent writer. I highly reccomend his books Beginning Again: People and Nature in the New Mellinium as well as The Arrogance of Humanism.

In Beginning Again he pretty much predicts peak oil and lays out the consequences, and that was written back in about 1990.
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Re: Kunstler's 'The Long Emergency' review in American Scien

Unread postby MattSavinar » Mon 22 Aug 2005, 08:23:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basketballjones', 'R')ead Kunstlers diary entry entitled Harry Shearer's War. You'll notice he says he is not "pro-war" but instead is trying to describe what he thinks the war is.

Those people who are anti war need to re-evaluate just how anti war they really are. If they really are as anti war as they say they are then they should give up their cars, airconditioning and trips to walmart. Or, those people must decide what's important and if they dont want to give up their lifestyle then war IS the answer. If these people really wanted to protest the war they would give up using energy.

Btw, It's probably the same people who won't allow any new LNG terminals being built but heat their homes with natural gas.


Exactly.

I don't know where people get this idea he is "pro-war." I think they get upset by the fact that what he says is true: that if you live the life led by the average American, even one who trys to conserve some, the natural end result is war.

Find 10 people who are vocally "against the war." I guarantee you nine of them:

1. Buy their food from Safeway, Albertsons, or Raleys;
2. Bank at Bank of America, Citigroup, or Chase Manhattan;
3. Buy their gas from Chevron, Shell, or Exxon;

So they are against the war with the mouths, but their actions and the way they spend their money is very, very pro-war.

I'm not going to go back to being vocally against the war until I'm buying most of my food (say at least 75%) from a local farm, banking at a local community-owned bank, and figured out how to massively cut my electricity use, although we are on geothermal here. (I've already given up driving, fwiw.).

Until then, it would be hypocritical for me to be staunchly "anti-war" with my words.

It's like all those people driving down to Crawford, usually by themselves, to support Mrs. Sheehan in her bid to have the president explain what "noble cause" her son died for.

Her son died so we could continue living a lifestyle where people can jump in their cars and drive long distances by themselves, while paying for the gas they put in the car and the cheese doodles they put in the mouths with US dollars, which hold value largely because they are backed up by our willingness to use overwhelming military force keep the demand/value for dollars high. (the "petrodollar")

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Re: Kunstler's 'The Long Emergency' review in American Scien

Unread postby MattSavinar » Mon 22 Aug 2005, 08:29:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sventvkg', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basketballjones', 'R')ead Kunstlers diary entry entitled Harry Shearer's War. You'll notice he says he is not "pro-war" but instead is trying to describe what he thinks the war is.

Those people who are anti war need to re-evaluate just how anti war they really are. If they really are as anti war as they say they are then they should give up their cars, airconditioning and trips to walmart. Or, those people must decide what's important and if they dont want to give up their lifestyle then war IS the answer. If these people really wanted to protest the war they would give up using energy.

Btw, It's probably the same people who won't allow any new LNG terminals being built but heat their homes with natural gas.


Sorry, I don't buy that one bit..Just because there are modern comforts out there like Cars and AC doesn't mean there aren't other alternative means thought up or even in existance that can provide the necessary energy for humans to continue out technical development in a modern manner..I believe it's big oil and the elite interests it represents who have actively supressed other means of energy from ever coming to light...I mean, I have seen the Japanese car that runs on Water!! This stuff exists out there...We just don't get to see it.....
.


Assummng that is the case, we are still supporting those elite interests and their warmongering ways by making use of the car, the AC, etc . . .

You buy your gas at Shell with your Citibank ATM, after drinking some bottled water from Safeway, for instance. Whose pockets do you think that money is ultimately going into?

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Re: Kunstler's 'The Long Emergency' review in American Scien

Unread postby Sgs-Cruz » Mon 22 Aug 2005, 09:27:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basketballjones', 'R')ead Kunstlers diary entry entitled Harry Shearer's War. You'll notice he says he is not "pro-war" but instead is trying to describe what he thinks the war is.

Those people who are anti war need to re-evaluate just how anti war they really are. If they really are as anti war as they say they are then they should give up their cars, airconditioning and trips to walmart. Or, those people must decide what's important and if they dont want to give up their lifestyle then war IS the answer. If these people really wanted to protest the war they would give up using energy.

Btw, It's probably the same people who won't allow any new LNG terminals being built but heat their homes with natural gas.

Quoted for truth and full agreement. This continent is packed to the brim with energy-use hypocrites. Everyone supports conservation until you ask them to do anything more than replace their incandescent bulbs with CF ones.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sventvkg', '
')I believe it's big oil and the elite interests it represents who have actively supressed other means of energy from ever coming to light...I mean, I have seen the Japanese car that runs on Water!! This stuff exists out there...We just don't get to see it.....


Ahahahahahahahaha

(1) Do you really think Shell cares if they sell you oil or ethanol? As long as they're the ones doing the selling, it's all money in the bank, baby. If one of the alternatives really had any promise, the oil companies would be the first on it. (The fact that they're not should tell you something about how promising the alternatives really are!)

(2) Please don't talk about cars that run on water. Water is oxidized hydrogen, i.e. has no more potential energy in it. (Unless you run your car in freezing temperatures only and use the latent heat of solidification of water. Heh, all you'd need is a 10,000-gallon tank and your car would spit ice cubes out the back... could this be the next big thing? :-D) There is no car that runs on water. It's doesn't make sense thermodynamically, as much as you like the idea of the illuminati somewhere suppressing these great inventions.
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Re: "The Long Emergency: ..." James Howard Kunstl

Unread postby julianj » Sat 03 Sep 2005, 15:55:52

Got it today and read it in one session. I reckon it's a must intro to PO.

Yes, there are daffy bits: in a low-energy future I find it hard to believe Asian pirates will make it all the way over the Pacific. More believeable is his warnings about the Mexican border.

V good and readable, with some of Kunstler's trademark humour. Such as the mention of his neighbour with an antiwar poster and two SUVs. Not quite getting the bigger picture, Kunstler feels :)
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Re: "The Long Emergency: ..." James Howard Kunstl

Unread postby Byron100 » Sat 10 Sep 2005, 11:04:06

I picked up a copy of Kunstler's book at the local Border's last week. They had it in the "new nonfiction section" at the front of the store...must be a big seller now that everyone is freaking out about the gas/oil thing due to Kantrina.

As with most books of this type, I think you have to take it with a grain of salt, but he made some very valid points about what's to come with the coming energy shock, especially regarding his comments concerning shortages of NG which I feel is the big bugaboo that's going to clobber us long before the oil shortages kick in full force...it certainly has me considering installing that wood stove sooner rather than later!

As for his musings concering the war in Iraq, I think he's just being on-the-point about it...I mean, it's rather obvious even to the casual observer that we're there for the oil as opposed to the so-called "War on Terror"...even if it wasn't for 9-11, we were destined to invade the Middle East sooner or later, and as much as I detest the idea, we're in for the long haul in that part of the world.

The thing that bothered me the most about this book was his unrelenting diatribe against the American way of living...it's one thing to point out our unstainable way of living, but I don't think he fully understands the workings of free-market economics, and how self-correcting it is...I mean, if and when the Second Great Depression hits (my term), there will be so much demand destruction that P.O. will actually be more like a broad plateau that could stretch out for decades before supplies get tight enough to actually bring down all of Western civilization, unlike which he insinuates throughout his book. Also, I don't think Kunstler is aware of the potential for greatly increased energy efficiencies once oil gets expensive enough...such as cars getting 80-100 mpg, people not living so far from their jobs, vastly increased support for mass transit and so on that will made a huge difference in how much energy we really need to consume to maintain a reasonable standard of living.

But overall, I thought it was a good read...I burned through it in less than a day...lol, and I do hope that it will impress upon an unwary public that we really do have some huge challenges facing us as a nation and the world. But a little bit of optimism does go a long ways even in the face of what's coming. :-D

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Re: "The Long Emergency: ..." James Howard Kunstl

Unread postby ashurbanipal » Wed 14 Sep 2005, 12:17:11

I didn't see Kuntsler as actually supporting the Iraq war. I viewed his comments in the context of an historian discussing something from the point of view of the person or group making a decision. Historical writing employs this device rather frequently. In this case, for instance, when he says:

"But there were other reasons to go to war"

he means:

"To those in charge at the time, despite the controversy, there were other reasons to go to war."

At least, that's how I read it.

I thought the rest of the book was very good; his interpretation of history from the start of the 20th century was quite lucid and absorbing. I don't find his predictions implausible. I would say right now that, with a few exceptional areas such as Atlanta, Orlando, Miami, and New Orleans (pre-Katrina), the Deep South is already a de facto separate entity, albeit one with strong political and economic ties to the rest of the United States. Culturally, it's vastly different from other areas of the country (which, in fairness, are themselves vastly dissimilar).
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Re: "The Long Emergency: ..." James Howard Kunstl

Unread postby NugBlazer » Wed 24 May 2006, 20:50:50

This is the best book I've read on Peak Oil. The last chapter is sobering, but true, IMO.
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Re: "The Long Emergency: ..." James Howard Kunstl

Unread postby madrid » Wed 24 May 2006, 21:34:50

I read The Long Emergency right when it came out. Before that I had been reading his daily blog at www.kunstler.com for a great deal of time.

Kunstler hates Arabs and Muslims and loves Israel as much as he loves the US. He deplores Muslim fundamentalism and Christian fundamentalism, but he doesn't even notice Jewish fundamentalism. I believe he is a secular Jew, but I wonder what he, a child of the sixties, would think of things like the orthodox Jewish custom of Niddah, by which the male is forbidden from touching his wife for 12 days from the beginning of his wife's menstuation. And if you don't think plenty of people practice such wacky stuff, visit New Jersey or Brooklyn, where I live. I am not defending Christian and Muslim fundamentalists-- just funny how they are the only ones who get such a bad rap.

He basically sees our interests and Israel's interests as one in the same.

I disagree with him very much on this point and I also very much disagree with him on the issue of the war, which he basically supports.

My attitude is that if humans are fundamentally as violent and vicious, as Kunstler sometimes portrays us, then I, along with the rest of the biosphere, will gladly celebrate our extermination from the planet. But I still admire him a huge amount for getting the message out.
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Re: "The Long Emergency: ..." James Howard Kunstl

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Fri 26 May 2006, 15:32:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('madrid', '
') if humans are fundamentally as violent and vicious, as Kunstler sometimes portrays us, then I, along with the rest of the biosphere, will gladly celebrate our extermination from the planet.
Would you say that maybe Kunstler is right but that you find it distasteful? And how do you go from that to "gladly celebrating our extermination"? Anybody who celebrates human extinction is calling from the rubber room chorus IMO.
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Re: "The Long Emergency: ..." James Howard Kunstl

Unread postby eastbay » Sun 28 May 2006, 11:33:17

My attitude is that if humans are fundamentally as violent and vicious, as Kunstler sometimes portrays us, then I, along with the rest of the biosphere, will gladly celebrate our extermination from the planet.


Madrid,

Yeah, 'if' is your key word here. Of course humans aren't quite that vicious and violent, but can be directed that way by misdirected individuals in positions of power, as we all are well aware. Humans are fundamentally kind and 'good', but when desperation hits human 'good' can be subordinated to basic survival. And humanity has entered desperate times.

Also, it's fairly obvious that Kunstler's apparent support for the Stupid Oil War really boils down to support for Israel by removing a nearby threat. The US military occupation of Iraq has provided the USA with nothing whatsoever... and most know this... so what else could it be?
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Re: "The Long Emergency: ..." James Howard Kunstl

Unread postby Revi » Tue 30 May 2006, 13:32:20

The US may have invaded Iraq as a Defensive move, because they were selling oil in euros. We may be stuck with the move now. Why else would the Neocons have made such a stupid move?

We are stuck with it now. The dollar is tanking again. What is their next move? Will they bow to the inevitable? Doubtful.
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Re: "The Long Emergency: ..." James Howard Kunstl

Unread postby WorriedInTheCity » Sat 05 Aug 2006, 10:07:35

I have never before paid attention to peak oil. "The Long Emergency" terrified me. I came to this site to answer questions. (From ignorant to interested in 3 days time)

I wish those of you with knowledge on Peak Oil would not focus so much on the war (we all have our beliefs.) I hope you will take the opportunity to briefly educate newbies who will be desperate for information. We want to hear if you believe his main points are accurate and where you think he is inaccurate.

I hope to figure out on this site:
1. Is Peak Oil real. It sure seems to be.
2. Are we really running out of natural gas?
3. Is it true that alternative fuel sources like solar/wind/biodiesel/ethanol are not sustainable without the petroleum platform. (The law of thermodynamics sees to make a lot of sense.)
4. What do you think of his predications for the future?

I agree with the author that the globe will have to undergo a painful population contraction to preindustrial population levels. I think being on a farm away from desperate people in a place with rainfall would be the safest bet initially. I disagree with the author about the dangers suburbia and the safety of cities. I think suburbia is better suited for raising food than the concrete cities are.
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Re: "The Long Emergency: ..." James Howard Kunstl

Unread postby o2ny » Sat 05 Aug 2006, 10:24:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WorriedInTheCity', 'I') wish those of you with knowledge on Peak Oil would not focus so much on the war (we all have our beliefs.) I hope you will take the opportunity to briefly educate newbies who will be desperate for information. We want to hear if you believe his main points are accurate and where you think he is inaccurate.


Welcome to the site 'worried'. IMO, the best summary of PO can be found at lifeaftertheoilcrash.net. In a few pages it goes over all the alternatvies, geopolitics, reactions, causes, and what needs to be done.

People talk about the war quite a bit because it's more than tangentially related to the peak oil situation. The reasons for going into Iraq are now emerging for what they truly are... a desperate attempt by the US to control some part of oil production in the ME.
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Re: "The Long Emergency: ..." James Howard Kunstl

Unread postby Ladyluck » Sat 05 Aug 2006, 12:27:24

"The Long Emergency" is why I am on this website. I was in the library looking for Jared Diamond's book Collapse when I saw it. I thought it looked interesting. I couldn't believe that we were so close to peak oil but no one ever said anything. I read more books about peak oil.
I really liked what he said about suburbia being an untenable way of life in the future. I wasn't happy because I live in suburbia. I also live in the Rocky Mountain region which he was not keen on. I think he said that Salt Lake city was one of the most car dependant cities in America. Oh well
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