[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alpha480v', 'T')he bottom line is,no war for resources on a global scale is going to be conducted by the United States without a draft in place.We simply do not have the manpower.This fact alone makes all these scenarios irrelevant.

[PenultimateManStanding]

It may be the best thing that could happen if the oil supplies are choked off to everyone and globalism is done and so no WWIII. The US could learn to get by with its coal and remaining petroleum. There are many safeguards I suppose to make sure the oil fields stay up in the exporting countries. From a moralistic viewpoint, the humanoid leaders of the nations are all such as would make any of us silently scream, and American energy usage is going to have to go down a long way. But you don't figure the odds by playing your sentimental hunches.

[Zentric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alpha480v', 'T')he bottom line is,no war for resources on a global scale is going to be conducted by the United States without a draft in place.We simply do not have the manpower.This fact alone makes all these scenarios irrelevant.

[JudoCow09]

We've all heard the base of this famous quote by Roosevelt in his inaugural speech, but how many of us have heard the whole thing?

"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself - nameless, unreasoning, unjustified, terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance."

I find great meaning in quotes, feeling they can really be found relevant to virtually any situation. Obviously I feel the end of this famous quote is the most critical point not to mention the most relevant to our coming crisis. Now I know most of the people on this board are pessimistic for good reason, but a little faith never hurt someone.

We depend on oil. Facts tell us that only bad things can happen if we don't act. Most are preparing for a life without oil so you can live off the land. They've lost the majority of your faith in society. So what if all of society loses faith in itself. Oops, we just dug our own grave.

Now no one has any idea what could happen if we acted. If the world really put an effort towards trying to help our crisis, we could completely stop PO from severely effecting us. In fact, I believe it could happen with a little bit more optimism. The point I'm trying to raise is that you can't guess what we'll learn if we don't know it. This forum just doesn't seem to think we can come out with a solution.

Fear will kill us all. If everyone jumps in a huge panic, that quote will be exactly right. It will be widespread retreat. The world will run from the problem rather than confront it. We need people to try to push for a solution to this problem. Advance, not retreat. Preparing isn't a problem if the worst comes, but don't just prepare for a crisis you could of very well prevented. If people put effort into altering their dim future, great things could happen.

So for all of you who just found out about PO, I beg of you not to fall into the pessimistic views of the majority of the board. Be more of the realists here. Plan for the worst, but don't lose an optimistic look on everything. Don't fear what will happen, but be ready for every scenario. Facts look bad, but a F student at the quarter can still have an A by the end of the semester if he puts more time to get out of a problem he's in.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09', 'F')acts look bad, but a F student at the quarter can still have an A by the end of the semester if he puts more time to get out of a problem he's in.

[Ming]

This is a government problem, and also a “large masses” problem.
Plus, there seems to be excessive world population at present, and that is difficult to solve “nicely”.
Given this, I don’t really see how individuals can do better that preparing the future for themselves and their nearest family and friends…
Except, of course, though raising general awareness for the problem…

[Colorado-Valley]

I'm optimistic things will get better after the die-off.

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'I')'m optimistic things will get better after the die-off.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09', 'B')e more of the realists here.

[Macsporan]

Monte,

Enough of the dark hints already.

What do you think is going to happen and what do you think we should do about it?

It is a poor messiah who has no scheme for salvation.

Speak.

And no, I don't want to read "The Best of Montequest", I'd like to to say it here and now clearly and in few words, please.

In your opinion is an ordered power-down possible, or are we to start eating each other?

If it is possible what steps should we be taking to ensure it?

If its not possible what form of suicide do you recommend?

Mac.

[Jack]

Although Monte has far more background in the environmental area than I, perhaps I may be permitted to take a first shot at answering your legitimate questions.

The problem is twofold. First, that we have far too many people to maintain a western lifestyle. Second, that people want all the benefits of an energy-rich lifestyle no matter what the price.

Because of the fundamental nature of humans, an orderly powerdown that avoids a massive die-off is not possible. To argue that human nature will suddenly change is to ignore 5000 years of recorded history. As far back as 3000 B.C.E., young people living around the Euphrates sought to be scribes so that they could have the easy life - not that of a metal smith or farmer, but a life of affluence, ease, and plenty.

Neither I nor, I suppose, the vast majority of others on this board are inconveniencing themselves in the slightest despite the difficult times suffered by those in Darfur and Eritrea. We know of it, and we ignore it. As the problems of peak oil rise, like the irresistible rise of the tide, we will ignore the problems of others while maintaining our own energy affluent lives as best we can.

Ahh, but you seek a scheme for salvation. And, as you say, I would be remiss not to provide it.

Simply this - the industrially developed world must secure itself from the starving masses, and keep them at bay, while looting the entire world of whatever resources may be had. There will be a terrible cost in blood and treasure, but it is a price that must be paid - for the alternative will be a bill far greater. Within our own nations, we must use our ingenuity and the remainder of the Earth's resources to build as much sustainable infrastructure as we can. And then, we survive until the situation in the world stabilizes.

I expect a dieoff of approximately 80% of global population. Following my design, the first world could avoid that. The rest of the world will not.

Having set out my solution will not, I think, please you.

But then, perhaps you have not yet embraced the central tenet of my belief system; "Once you lose your integrity, the rest is easy."

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Macsporan', 'M')onte,

Enough of the dark hints already.

What do you think is going to happen and what do you think we should do about it?

It is a poor messiah who has not scheme for salvation.

Speak.

And no, I don't want to read "The Best of Montequest", I'd like to to say it here and now clearly and in few words, please.

In your opinion is an ordered power-down possible, or are we to start eating each other?

If it is possible what steps should we be taking to ensure it?

If its not possible what form of suicide do you recommend?

Mac.

[Macsporan]

Jack,

Is this the official position of the Great Old Ones of this forum, or merely your personal view?

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Macsporan', 'J')ack,

Is this the official position of the Great Old Ones of this forum, or merely your personal view?

[evilmonkeyspanker]

I simply can not fathom how all of you can possibly think the worst is going to happen, and if you do think the worst is going to happen... why are you on this forum and not out in the real world living it up?

[Macsporan]

Gentlemen,

Now that we are down to brass tacks I feel I know where I stand.

Clearly Jack I do not agree with your diagnosis or prescription which appears to be that we Nice White People, having dragooned and coerced the other 80% of the world into and unjust and unsustainable global empire of deprivation, slavery and misery, should just stand aside and let them all starve to death by the billions.

Not only is this morally repugnant, I believe it to be based on a mistaken view of history and human nature.

To say that everyone at all times have been driven by an unslakable thirst for material advancement and social climbing is to put the values of our own very sick society onto the past.

In point of fact most people throughout time, to judge from their actions, have been content to raise their families on their little plot of land taking the good with the bad and striving to stay out of trouble. Generally speaking they have only rebelled when misgovenment, oppression and warfare have prevented them from going about their humble lives for long periods of time.

The uncontrolled materialist aquisitiveness of today is actually a piece of Right-Wing social engineering executed by the corporate mass-media for three generations and at vast expense, not a natural outcome of human nature. Were people presented with more relaxed values and aspirations, most I feel would, with a sigh of relief, be happy to embrace the ways of their ancestors.

Monte, I like your aspect better as it close to my own. Yes there will be a depression, that is unquestionable; it is how we react that matters.

One thing history had taught me is that in some respects history is a bad guide to the future: it is full of surprises and unpredicable events. Who could have foreseen the French Revolution, the Industrial Revolution or the Reformation?

For that matter who could have forseen the Humanitarian Conscience, the Green Movement, Feminism or the Counterculture? If you are worried the 100% Enviromentalism is unlikely then all I can say is that stranger things have happened.

To imagine that what we are bound to endlessly repeat the past makes as much sense as to say that just because I had cornflakes for breakfast yesterday I am compelled to have them for breakfast this morning.

We are in for some more suprises, and some of them will be pleasant. For this reason I am guardedly optimistic, and it is forums like this, preparing the way for a future that will not be wholly dark, that help to make me so.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('auctionmonster', 'I') simply can not fathom how all of you can possibly think the worst is going to happen, and if you do think the worst is going to happen... why are you on this forum and not out in the real world living it up?

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Macsporan', 'T')he uncontrolled materialist aquisitiveness of today is actually a piece of Right-Wing social engineering executed by the corporate mass-media for three generations and at vast expense, not a natural outcome of human nature. Were people presented with more relaxed values and aspirations, most I feel would, with a sigh of relief, be happy to embrace the ways of their ancestors.

[Macsporan]

We do indeed. Amen.

[harlanater]

Lets not forget that peak oil is a gradual decline, not like a second great plague. Lets be sensible. People are waking up and becoming adjusted to the reality that oil will soon be scarce. We've come a long way in the last decades. I personally believe on day we may still become interstellar beings

"The specter has contained us
With its flickers of ineffective voyages
We must annihilate the billboards
And tear the foundation from within ourselves"

HarlaNater