[Billy88]

Hi, I have just learned about the whole peak oil issue about 3 months ago, and I can not get enough information about it. This is my first post and I was wondering if the other memebers would share their view on when they think Peak Oil will happen. I know the ASOP have in their news letter the year 2004 for normal oil and 2007 for all types of oil. I have read that we might have already hit the peak, but I have also read that it might be decades out. I was wondering when the members thought it might happen. Thanks!

[Snowrunner]

I think what a lot of people misunerstand is that peak oil doesn't mean we are suddenly out of oil.

What it means is that we are unable to put out more oil every day and actually in the future will see a declining output.

So, looking at the prices and oil production right now I'd say there is a good chance we're either already peaking or at least getting close.

Of course, there is also a danger that we will crash, e.g. if the Saudis start to pump too much too fast and destroy the fields in the process.

[clv101]

I would say that since many individual countries have peaked (America, Norway, Venezuela, UK, Indonesia etc.), many individual oil majors have peaked (Chevron, Exxon, Shell, Total) and that individual grades of oil have peaked (Light sweet crude) a global peak in all oil grades can't be far away.

Here are two completely different approaches to the question of when peak oil will occur, both returning the same result.

My personal opinion is that the geological peak in crude extraction will be a long drawn out bumpy affair limited by logistics and infrastructure running from around about now through to 2010 when significant decline will set it.

[bruin]

The date is lot like predicting where a hurricane will land. We know it is coming ashore, just not where and when exactly because there are so many varieables. But it gets easier the closer it gets.

I"ve got my money on 2008. The number of major new projects drops from 2007 on.

[Ming]

One should not confuse the problem (and the date) of the peak of oil production and the problem (and date) of the beginning of an imbalance between demand and supply (with equal or bigger demand than supply).

Peak Oil is the first one.
My personal point of view is that PO will occur between 2008 and 2012 (for all fossil liquids).

The second problem as already started.
And it can be defended that this second problem is indeed more important than the PO itself.
But it can be “compensated”, for a time, though reduced demand, due to an inevitable economic downturn motivated by the (very high) crude price itself…

[kmann]

I read (I forgot where) a description that said the peak would be more of an undulating plateau. With all the variables, that's what I believe will happen. I think we're near (within a year or two of) that plateau now and will come down the other side around 2010.

[Taskforce_Unity]

Between 2010 and 2015.

Skrebowski's analysis has many errors, it does not have enough projects and it overestimates depletion somewhat.

As for Campbell, i don't trust any URR calculations anymore. I'd rather check on real data (production numbers) from analyst firms like douglas westwood. And my own analysis ofcourse

[EddieB]

I also buy the "undulating plateau" idea. This year's high prices have encouraged a spurt of drilling that will come online and (maybe?) maintain production near current levels for a few more years. But I tend to think that by 2010-2012 (quite possibly in the 2008-2010 range too) it will be obvious that we're sliding down the slope... I believe ASPO's numbers as much as anybody else. A big recession or depression might keep us on the plateau a few more years...

In the immediate term I think a financial implosion in the US poses a bigger threat to people's savings stateside. What happens when enough people buy the PO stuff and switch their 401k out of the stock market transaction costs and taxes be damned?

[MonteQuest]

The "actual" date of geological peak is not important. The effects are.

Peak oil means the end of cheap, readily available oil.

The cheapness is over, the availability is yet to be compromised except in the form of monetary access.

When shortages occur and gas rationing takes place, and the price continues upwards, then the day has arrived.

[Novus]

The peak happened in July of 2005 with an average of 84.4mbpd. The huricanes are likely to damge the gulf production oil this month to under 84.0mbpd. It looks like it is going to be a direct hit so the peak is now. Never again will as much oil be pumped as was pumped in July of 2005.

[Ming]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'T')he peak happened in July of 2005 with an average of 84.4mbpd. The huricanes are likely to damge the gulf production oil this month to under 84.0mbpd. It looks like it is going to be a direct hit so the peak is now. Never again will as much oil be pumped as was pumped in July of 2005.

[Aaron]

The peak date is less important than the Point of Safe Return.

At some point, we lose the ability to make the changes necessary to alleviate the most potent consequences of post peak...

Well in advance of the actual peak.

Changes take time.

Just as ominous is the potential for rapid depletion post peak.

The "plateau" argument is largely predicated on traditional depletion rates from historic data.

Modern depletion rates can be much more aggressive because of advanced recovery techniques used.

And all these estimates, including ASPO's, are predicated on what many consider to be questionable data for oil reserves as reported by OPEC & the oil majors. If Shell's recent admission of intentionally mis-classifying their reserves is any indication then...

This is why Simmons is so hot on reporting reforms.

Simmons

[Ming]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he "plateau" argument is largely predicated on traditional depletion rates from historic data.

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ming', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he "plateau" argument is largely predicated on traditional depletion rates from historic data.

[Ming]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') serious world recession will preclude our ability to change lots of things. That is the point.

[MD]

Don't forget some of the largest infrastructure projects ever launched occurred during the great depression.

The problem this time around is we have a population much less likely to "behave" in the event of hard times. Government may be too busy fighting insurgency to do much in the way of public works projects. (see "iraq")

[Ghog]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '
')
The problem this time around is we have a population much less likely to "behave" in the event of hard times. Government may be too busy fighting insurgency to do much in the way of public works projects. (see "iraq")

[Snowrunner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ghog', 'R')unning with that idea, how loyal do people expect our 'military boys' to be if they were called home to quell their friends and family because of food and energy riots?

[sjn]

The Great Depression was a little different. There are quite a few theories floating around about the causes, significant IMHO is the reduction in global trade and the imbalances in international monetary policy. One thing is pretty clear, the US had plenty of resources available to it to spend its way out. There was no shortage of oil or NG, and yes there was a great willingness of the public to work towards the common good especially with the run up to WWII.

This time as we enter economic depression (globally) major public works or the building of a war machines are not going to boost the economy, they're going to further drain our depleting resources and take those resources that are available from other places where they are needed.

[Ming]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he problem this time around is we have a population much less likely to "behave" in the event of hard times. Government may be too busy fighting insurgency to do much in the way of public works projects.