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Peak Oil Hype = Y2K Hype?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak Oil Hype = Y2K Hype?

Unread postby o2ny » Mon 22 Aug 2005, 20:15:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', '
')oil is not running out, there are plenty of untapped reserves, and this is just a revenue exercise for the oil companies...............oh look GW is an ex-oil man with the largest fund raising election effort on record, what a coincidence.................


A massive collaboration by global oil companies and OPEC to increase profits? A political favor by GW to raise funds? Or simply that supply is dwindling and demand is increasing. Occam's razor anyone?

Fact is, W's poll numbers are way down partly because of high oil prices... if this peak oil thing is a conspiracy, now's the time to pull the plug before the Repubs get shit-canned in '06.
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Unread postby DaveA » Mon 22 Aug 2005, 22:53:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('syrac818', '
')I think peak oil is hitting the main stream, which is both good and bad. Good in that awareness on a large scale bases could result in actual change. Our "conservation" sucks so bad it's laughable. I truly believe we could reduce our oil use by 60%, buying us some much needed time for a transition while training us to live a low energy lifestyle. It will suck, but we can do it.


Californians use 40% less energy than the rest of the country without a reduction in quality of life, the United States is significantly more wasteful than Europe for example, and I think it would be hard to convince most people that we have a higher quality of life. The people who will suffer the most are all those families that will be kicked out of the houses they couldn't affoard in the suberbs, and lose those SUVs because they can't affoard the car payment after they factor in price of gas - this will create a sag in demand, which if properly exploited can be used to fix the problems one at a time.

Frankly those people won't get much sympathy from me, they consume three or four times as much energy as I do because they insist on living beyond their means (I have never accepted any of those credit card offers in the mail, I have zero debt and have never in my whole life had any debt, this is because of my mom who always taught me that the economy cant keep going up forever and the first people to suffer are those idiots who live beyond their means)

This is not to say that HAVING debt makes you an idiot, it is simply saying that having debt which you know you can never pay back makes you an idiot. If you live in a $500,000 house and make $30,000 a year net income and drive an SUV - grats you're gonna be one of the first people to be screwed when the housing bubble collapses (if it happens before peak oil, which I believe is essential if we wish to have anything resembling a soft landing)
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Re: Peak Oil Hype = Y2K Hype?

Unread postby hoplite » Mon 22 Aug 2005, 23:26:35

There's still alotta water purifiers,rice cakes,MRE's,5 and gallon water jugs, sitting around in wherehouses... NOt to mention all the gold bugs that got burned....
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Re: Peak Oil Hype = Y2K Hype?

Unread postby entropyfails » Tue 23 Aug 2005, 00:43:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', 'h')ttp://jlnlabs.imars.com/index.htm

take a look at this site, this is not some conspiracy junk, this is hard science with details all laid out, mathematics and things you can even rig up at home.


So you power your home and car on this Cold Fusion Device?

Thought not....

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', '
')there are plenty of alternatives to oil, it is ignorance to say that there aren't.


Straw Man.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', '
')the world was considered flat 500 years ago and people were put to death if they thought overwise. the dogma of the day was preserved to maintain power over the masses............does anything ever change ??


Ad Absurdum

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', '
')i have a degree in geology from one of the finest institutions on the planet and geologists can make watery statements like oil might peak in 2035. it is meaningless. Geology in terms of measuring what is actually underground in the layers is a very inexact science.


Appeal to authority.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', '
')there are papers coming out lately that prove that oil is not a fossil fuel at all but a product of high pressure and the break down of carbonates in the upper mantle. again this is not some conspiracy tripe, although you can find plenty of misinformed pseudo sites proclaiming all kinds of things, there is genuine stuff amongst it.


Abiotic oil!!!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', '
')Oil is not running out, it is a sales pitch.


Straw Man. We all think that we have 1 trillion barrels of oil left. We discuss the maximum extraction point. You show an utter ignorance of what we talk about here.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', '
')There is not one shread of real evidence that oil is a fossil fuel. It is a


Untrue.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', '
') up the idea in the 1800s that oil was also a fossil fuel. Scientists postulate, that is all they can do really no one actually knew for sure.


Real scientists also avoid logical fallacies when making their claims. Oil could come from both abiotic and biotic origins and that STILL wouldn't change the fundimental argument that we will hit a maximum extraction point.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', '
')It becomes the dogma of the day and is jolly convenient for banging out over priced product, despite what more modern finds are saying.

Bandwagon appeal.

So in short, you posted a bunch of fallacies, half-truths, and topped it off with Abiotic Oil AND Free Energy. You have zero credibility in my eyes and I feel certain that others will come to the same conclusion. Please read the other discussions that we have had here and argue your points there.

Your post has nothing to do with Y2K as it relates to Peak Oil. Now I had to post a rebuttal of your post, distracting the discussion even further. Stop.
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Re: Peak Oil Hype = Y2K Hype?

Unread postby Omnitir » Tue 23 Aug 2005, 01:13:50

The Y2K hype was full of people who claimed to understand the situation and told everyone with certainty that it will amount to nothing. They were wrong. Y2K was devastating to systems not prepared for it. Yet post Y2K these people ignored all the hard work put into preventing it and proclaimed “I told you so!”.

PO hype is also full of people who claim to understand the situation and tell everyone with certainly that it will amount to nothing. These people are again wrong. However this time there is not a legion of dedicated workers devoted to preventing the crisis. This time the crisis will hit and it will be the peakoilers saying “I told you so!”. But it wont be any comfort knowing we were right as civilisation comes crashing down on our heads. Though the PO naysayers will regret not taking the threat seriously.
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Re: Peak Oil Hype = Y2K Hype?

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Tue 23 Aug 2005, 01:32:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hoplite', 'T')here's still alotta water purifiers,rice cakes,MRE's,5 and gallon water jugs, sitting around in wherehouses... NOt to mention all the gold bugs that got burned....


Gold bugs got burned?

You kidding?

They are making out like bandits with $450 gold. :-D
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Re: Peak Oil Hype = Y2K Hype?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 23 Aug 2005, 12:00:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'i') have a degree in geology from one of the finest institutions on the planet and geologists can make watery statements like oil might peak in 2035. it is meaningless


well first off I don't think King Hubberts analysis of US Peak oil was meaningless now was it? Are you arguing that the US has not peaked yet. And second off I think you are either guilding the lily about your geology background or you fell asleep throughout the organic geochemistry discussions in your basic petroleum geology course.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')here are papers coming out lately that prove that oil is not a fossil fuel at all but a product of high pressure and the break down of carbonates in the upper mantle.


in actual fact those are not new arguments...they started back in the late 1800's and the debate over abiotic versus biotic orgin for oil continued until the seventies by which time our knowledge base was such that all thoughts of abiotic origin for oil were basically thrown out. And these papers do not prove anything about oil....laboratory experiments of this kind have been able to create methane and ethane but anything more complex has not been possible. The fact that there is some methane generated in the mantle is no surprise to anyone...we see it at mid-ocean rises but the quantity is extremely small. There is no example anywhere where a significant amount of complex hydrocarbon can be shown to have been generated from a non-sedimentary source. Gold's claim to have found 80 barrels of oil in his deep Russian well was never substantiated and is wildly believed to have been simply the oil based drilling mud that was used.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')hilst the geology of strata themselves is always vague, the pressures and temperatures and compositions are well documented and with modern technology can be recreated in a lab, more the realm of physics and chemistry.


which is exactly how we can varify the biotic origin. It has been proved countless times in countless laboratory experiments that complex hydrocarbons can be created from organic rich source rocks. This is not dogma it is simply a theory that has been proven. In fact it is in this manner that it was possible to come up with Arrhenius constants that govern the oil maturation process which can be plugged into time/temperature models which in turn do a very good job of predicting hydrocarbon accumulations.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is not one shread of real evidence that oil is a fossil fuel


well then I guess you would say that the very fact that we can find identical carbon preference indices in oils that are in source rocks connected to the reservoir is coincidence? or are you going to fall back on the special pleading from Gold who suggested the mantle derived hydrocarbons picked up their biological signatures through later mixing? What about the pristane/phytane ratios that demonstrate terrestrial or non-terrestrial origins of oils....sterane ratios that are replicated in source rocks which can be shown to be connected to the reservoirs? How do you explain the wax components in oils unless you invoke origin from terrestrial plant matter? Also perhaps you can explain how oil can be generated at mantle temperatures and preserved during transport through rocks at several hundred degrees C when we know from laboratory experiments that all oils crack at temperatures much over 175 C? I guess this would be some other form of magic you believe exists? Oh and the old argument about oil in basement rocks...yes it exists, Egypt, Vietnam etc. but in each and every case it can be demonstrated that there is a linkage between either a sedimentary source rock or another reservoir unit with the basement and the oil in the basement is a dead ringer geochemically to the source rock. Even the Ukraine example in the Dnieper Donetz basin is a classic example...the basement has been displaced against sedimentary source rock and reservoir rock of the Carpathian foreland (go to the original paper it has a cross section which demonstrates this). And if indeed you try to use the argument that "well it's just that we haven't drilled in the right places" then perhaps explain why out of the thousands of diamond core holes taken in shield areas around the world by mining firms looking for diamonds, gold, silver etc. not one has ever been an oil discovery? There are a number of relatively deep underground mines in shield areas that have never seen a hint of liquid hydrocarbons....some report puffs of methane but again that is not surprising. As well the location of oil deposits in the world match extremely well with the known location of organic rich source rocks. Where such source rocks are not present exploration has met with failure. There are large industry reports that demonstrate this simple fact. And finally if there is indeed a magic endless supply of hydrocarbon bubbling up from the mantle into reservoirs why are there so many completely depleted pools in North America? We sit on top of crystalline basement so should not all of these fields replenished themselves? The reason reserves increase in fields through time is due to 1. lack of knowledge at the time of intial reservoir reporting and 2. SEC restrictions on reserve reporting (3P reserves are not reported).

As a scientist I am the first to keep an open mind but given there has not been any compelling evidence for non-organic oil forthcoming in the past 100 years whereas the evidence for organic oil has been overwhelming I am at the point of spending very little time contemplating the former.
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Re: Peak Oil Hype = Y2K Hype?

Unread postby Golgo13 » Tue 23 Aug 2005, 14:28:18

The fact that oil at depths abiotic advocates like to dream about would be cracked into natural gas alone invalidates the entire theory right there.

But you got to admire their tenacity. They don't let a simple thing like inconvenient facts get in their way.
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Re: Peak Oil Hype = Y2K Hype?

Unread postby DaveA » Tue 23 Aug 2005, 14:42:30

It is quite feasible that at least part of the world's oil supply is abiotic - this doesn't make a difference in regards to peak oil though.

There are two theories of abiotic oil -

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '-') The "weak" abiotic oil theory: oil is abiotically formed, but at rates not higher than those that petroleum geologists assume for oil formation according to the conventional theory. (This version has little or no political consequences).

- The "strong" abiotic theory: oil is formed at a speed sufficient to replace the oil reservoirs as we deplete them, that is, at a rate something like 10,000 times faster than known in petroleum geology. (This one has strong political implications).



If Abiotic oil proves to be real it is almost definetely the first theory, since we'd have oil reserves refilling themselves left and right if the second was correct.

The first theory implies we could dig insanely deep and find an unlimited supply of abiotic oil - great, doesn't help us. It would be more economical to start digging into the oil shale or doing some of the 20km superdeep ocean oil wells, stuff that we haven't done yet because it isn't economically feasible - meaning abiotic oil doesn't do us any good in the short term if it does turn out to be true. It could mean future generations will have unlimited oil to make.... tires and crap out of, since they won't be using oil as a primary form of energy anymore it will probably be pretty plentiful anyway.
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Re: Peak Oil Hype = Y2K Hype?

Unread postby Teclo » Wed 24 Aug 2005, 18:36:59

Y2k was similar only because they both threaten a disaster of some kind
I was programming non-y2k software right up to '99 then we just went through our code and fixed it and gave it a test. It was actually very easy since it didn't involve any design or functionality change.. very systematic
But who cares about the detail.. it was a software fix
Peak oil is hardware not software, totally different ball game IMO

Imagine recalling a million cars to tweak the engine management software.. easy, but if you got to change the engine... you got a problem you can't rely on geeks to get you out of this time

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