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PeakOil is You

AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Postby MonteQuest » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 19:05:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09', 'B')y the way, when do you guys think we will really start to notice the effects of PO, or rather when will the life we lead now change?


Judo,

There are two things no one can be certain about right now.

1. How much oil is there left that we can actually recover.

2. What the rate of oil production decline will be.

The rate and magnitude will determine how bad it gets and how soon.

Not to be cryptic, but the effects started, and the life you lead now changed the day you became peak oil aware and googled this site.

Welcome to the forum! :-D
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Postby whiteknight » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 19:17:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'I')'ve got my fiddles.


Why is there a scene from "Deliverance" palying in my mind about now...

"Can you squeel city boy..."
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Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Postby Waterthrush » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 19:19:06

From a historian's perspective, I'd suggest reading a lot of history. It really helps to put one's individual experience into the broader context of human life. Imagine yourself in a Roman provincial town. There have been rumors of Vandals. But, essentially, your circle of knowledge is about 3 miles. "I lift mine eyes to the hills ... whence is that coming over them?"

Listen, long secular hikes of inflation, changes in technology ... this is pretty much the norm for our species.

But, the nuclear weapons frighten me. Other things too.

However, this is a planet worth fighting for. I am not going to acquiesce in its destruction.
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Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Postby spudbuddy » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 19:34:45

Moo!
Hey now cow,

It's a long emergency. No-one yet knows how long it will take for all this stuff to come to pass...could be quite awhile.
You're ahead of the game somewhat for even being aware of this problem, at your age.
(at your age I was sitting around on the lawn in front of my high school discussing alternatives to not buying into the American dream...[I had a different sort of dream.])
Don't allow yourself to become overwhelmed by what isn't possible;
consider instead what may be possible.
Allow yourself to imagine that this picture might include some good things.
You will not come of age and enter adulthood mindlessly accepting and having bought into the crap that got us into this mess in the first place.
And that's a damned good thing!
As previously remarked on - it's a positive thing that you're even here bothering to read and write and comment at all.
Many, if not most, in your age group are still bouncing around the postmodern cool chat sites. (or too busy looking into their left hands)
say what?
um -that would be a cell phone.
A suggestion:
Find, if you can (a teacher, minister, family member) someone somewhat older than you, trusted, trustworthy...that you can talk to in real time and real space, three-dimensional.
They'll have insights, perspective, knowledge, ideas....that will help, no doubt.
As a student, you will inherit a different world than the one you see now.
Apply yourself (with a mindset) towards a fuller education about the nature of the world you're growing up in.
One day you will be the cutting edge of a new social and economic order.
Whether that will be something that resembles the Great Depression remains to be seen.
Much of the world is, no doubt, sleepwalking into the future (seemingly unaware of what's coming).
You aren't. That gives you an advantage. Try thinking of it in exactly that way...an advantage.
Taken in its entirety...the world situation would probably overwhelm the most brilliant thinkers of our time.
So don't do it.
Reduce it down to bite-size bits...bran flakes of issues (more easily digestible...healthier for the plumbing.)
Another thing: Don't waste a whole lot of effort, energy and especially emotion, trying to debate or convince non-believers...there's no percentage in that.
Instead look for the ones who are already there. If this stuff overwhelms you, you're going to need support. (like in this site, for instance.)
But again...I repeat and stress...do your best to find that resource outside of cyberspace.

good luck!

jp
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and when it's sad, let me cry
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Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Postby americandream » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 20:20:44

Goin back over the points judo raised, what options do we have to pull this back.....go on tell me. I can't see any way out other than marxist style central planning and yet this system has had such bad press and the renegade Chinese communists make you wonder, I don't reckon its a starter. So, can any one tell me in a nutshell, how are we going to arrest resource waste, maintain some semblance of civil society and get post peak...with a system that can relativley smoothly transition us in an ordered fashion with some clear goals laid out...and carry the likes of the Islamic world along as well? It does not look good.
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Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Postby Tyler_JC » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 20:30:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'G')oin back over the points judo raised, what options do we have to pull this back.....go on tell me. I can't see any way out other than marxist style central planning and yet this system has had such bad press and the renegade Chinese communists make you wonder, I don't reckon its a starter. So, can any one tell me in a nutshell, how are we going to arrest resource waste, maintain some semblance of civil society and get post peak...with a system that can relativley smoothly transition us in an ordered fashion with some clear goals laid out...and carry the likes of the Islamic world along as well? It does not look good.


Easy

Chaos, millions die, governments fall apart, the electrical grid goes down...forever, and industrial civilizations ends by default.

Then the we can come out of the shadows to rebuild the world according to the official language of our local Peak Oil Messiah.

Or something like that.

There is no such thing as a global solution. However, there are plenty of local solutions. I suggest finding a nice neighborhood of like-minded people, then get yourself into a position of power. That way you can "fix" peak oil for the town of X and can care less about the rest of the world.

I dunno, my personal doomerosity is tipping back towards 2. (or whatever a moderate optimist is called)
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Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Postby something_awfull » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 20:39:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '
')
JudoCow09,

I don't know how much consolation this will be, but most of us are in circumstances not altogether different from yours.

There are people such as myself who have a decent income, but funnel all their money towards debt repayment, which leaves not too much left for peak oil preparation.

There are people such as Aaron, who have young children for which they are responsible. (Imagine the stress)


Matt


I don't need to imagine the stress, I have 3 small children, 6,3 (years) and 4 months, as well as a sizable debt. So I don't have much to put toward POP, I want to, but if I spend money and I'm wrong or I don't spend money and I'm wrong, well, Im sorta stuffed either way. :(

I worry about what they will have to face, I only hope Im around long enough to be able to help them as much as I can.
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Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Postby Pops » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 20:46:06

Great post Mr. Savinar.

In fact great posts everyone! This is what this site is about!

Judo, turn off the stinking computer and have some fun for cripes sake, it’s the middle of August and you are perhaps in the most carefree time of your life.

Granted your family has problems – it may be a surprise to you but everybody has problems, most put on a happy face and we think everyone else is doing great except us; not true.

I was talking with some relatives the other day and we were discussing our family history. We didn’t know diddly. I had sat and talked with my grandmother for hours when I was younger and had written her recollections on some green paper, which has been long since lost.

I look for that green paper in every box I come accross.

Talk to your folks about your family, you may come to know each other better and you will certainly grow closer.

Now, Turn off that computer!!!
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Postby Aaron » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 20:47:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')y the way, I do actually play Judo although I'm only an orange belt.


Although it has been many years, I got my black belt in Judo at 17. (Brown in Aikido as well) Was great fun. Worst ass kicking I ever had came at the hands of a 5 foot tall, 90 lb,45 year old woman.

I also marched in band in school. Flute.

I still play today, and it's been well worth the time I spent to learn it.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Postby GoIllini » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 21:52:22

I can only imagine what must be going through a 14 year old's mind at the thought the world might end. The closest I can come is remembering what it was like for me when I heard about a weather balloon launched from some scandinavian country that drifted into Russian airspace and came within minutes of starting a nuclear war.

Let me try and reassure you that if you're living in some small town in Ohio- or maybe even in a big city- you're starting off in great shape to get through PO and help switch us to a nuclear or renewable-based economy.

First off, you're living in the Midwest. Even with some of the most doomsdayish scenarios (which I don't ascribe to), the Midwest will always wind up being able to grow enough food to feed itself. When oil-based agriculture comes to an end, there's a good chance that we won't even be able to have the energy to cart food out of Ohio.

The fact that Ohio grows so much food- and that there aren't a whole lot of people there- means that all those further-out claims about nuclear war and martial law probably won't hit home- especially if you live in a small town or live out in the country. Ohio also might not be that much of a tactical target for anyone looking to launch missiles at us.

A lot of the scariest claims for PO should be more frightening to folks living on the East or West coast- where there's no way for people to get enough food to eat.

Here's a couple of things an intelligent 14 year old can do:

1. Keep doing well in school and stay in marching band. To be honest, there's so much more that you can learn there that's going to help you help us rebuild after Peak Oil hits. If they offer an Agriculture class at school, you might want to think about taking it. (If peak oil doesn't hit, it'll be pretty interesting to learn about how various foods wind up on your dinner plate. If it does hit, you'll be able to help people do a better job of growing food.)

2. If you don't have a busy summer, get a summer job. You're 14 years old; a lot of people will hire you. You can save up some of the money you make, or if you're feeling confident enough to put money in the stock market, put some of the money you make in oil stocks like Chevron (See http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cvx) or British Petroleum (See http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BP)

3. Start reading up on how ethanol and bio-diesel get made, and how we get electricity from various sources of renewable energy (IE: wind and solar).

4. If you think you might go to college, try to plan on a school in the Midwest. (There are so many good schools in Ohio.)
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Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Postby mgibbons19 » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 23:12:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'P')eople who play acoustic instruments could be in high demand. People will WANT, DEMAND entertainment during the crisis.

I've got my fiddles.


I've been trying to learn fiddle the last couple years, and I SUCK.
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Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Postby turmoil » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 23:20:54

Try guitar...it's at least got frets :) We should start a band!

If the muscians were playing as the Titanic went down, we can surely play some tunes.
"If you are a real seeker after truth, it's necessary that at least once in your life you doubt all things as far as possible"-Rene Descartes

"When you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains however improbable must be the truth"-Sherlock Holmes
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Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Postby mgibbons19 » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 23:22:13

My playing might make ppl jump!

Seriously I've only got about 7 songs. There are some detriments to picking up an instrument at 30.
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Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Postby MattSavinar » Sun 14 Aug 2005, 00:46:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09', 'I') can't get out of band now, nor will I since it is one of my favorite things I still do. By the way, I play the Trombone. I still play Soccer in the spring in the Rec league since I'm not good enough to be on a select or highschool team. Besides, in Marching Band I lost 7 pounds during Band Camp last week and it is a fairly phsically demanding not to mention hard working sport persay that teaches you morals which will be needed in any world in my mind and requires you to indure heat all day.




$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')y the way, when do you guys think we will really start to notice the effects of PO, or rather when will the life we lead now change?


I think the effects of wars and rising energy prices have been biting us in the ass with increasing ferocity over the last 5 or so years.

But if what you mean is when will we see "recession/depression/collapse", nobody can say for sure, but it is not looking too good right now. There are a multitude of X factors such as:

1. Housing bubble beginning to pop
2. Saudis pulling their money out of the market
3. Possible attack on Iran
4. (Multiple) Terrorist related disruptions in the oil supply
5. Repeal of PUCHA

Anybody who has been aware of these issues for some time will probably agree that trying to figure out "when" only serves to increase anxiety.

Right now, it sounds like you are doing pretty good. You've got the following going for you:

1. No debt.

2. Have a skill that a) keeps you in shape and b) could become quite useful as these events play out. James Kunstler, one of the more prominent authors on these issues, has written that playing a musical instrument will take on great importance during the "long emergency."

3. You've clearly got more brains than most 14 year olds who see the internet as little more than an extenstion of the playstation video games and playboy magazines.

Join your high schools future farmers group or something else applicable to the future and it would seem to me you have your bases as covered as any 14 year old realistically could.

Also, and this is more important than you may realize, you aren't old enough to have made too many major decisions that in light of Peak Oil were/are monumentally stupid.

I found out shortly after finishing my formal education at the ripe old age of 25. While it was quite depressing/upsetting, I remember thinking "Geez, thank God I found out now. If I was just 5-7 years older I probably would have already married the wrong person, had a bunch of kids, gained a ton of weight, gone into even more debt, got locked into a soul-killing job where I have to commute 50 miles a day, started drinking . . . etc."

BTW, the big Peak Oil conference is in Ohio this year: see http://www.communitysolution.org

How far are you from the location?

Matt
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Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Postby Tyler_JC » Sun 14 Aug 2005, 00:48:06

I can sing...sort of.

Well, I'm in the top 20% for singing talent. (or so I tell myself)

If you need a singer for your band, come over to my village. I'll be on the hill in my tent (the one with an anti-aircraft battery in front). :)
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Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Postby JudoCow09 » Sun 14 Aug 2005, 19:35:58

I don't live in suburbs, and I don't live in a big city but sorta out in the country near a fair sized city called Xenia. My yard is 2 1/2 acres big and across the street is a farmer who grows livestock corn not to mention that road is lined with many farms of which some who dimishing thanks to housing developments. I do live fairly close to that location. If you guys can get something like Google Earth, just search for Beavercreek, Ohio and look at the land in between Xenia and Beavercreek.

I'll be sure to post back in a few months. I think I will do weight lifting this School Year, maybe, and I've already made comments about growing some corn and other plants in our yard next year. By the way, don't we need oil to make plastics, and what will we do without them?

I'm in a more positive mood now. I've seen we do have some new energy sorces to at least power things that don't require liquid fuel. I read about some solar thing that looked pretty reliable, although I wish I could comprehend more of it. :-D
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Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Postby AmericanEmpire » Mon 15 Aug 2005, 03:21:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lso, and this is more important than you may realize, you aren't old enough to have made too many major decisions that in light of Peak Oil were/are monumentally stupid.


Yep, taking aerospace engineering was pretty stupid in light of peak oil. :lol:
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Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Postby savethehumans » Mon 15 Aug 2005, 07:39:43

There's an Energy Technology board here at the Peakoil Forums. It might be able to explain a lot about alternative fuels. They won't replace oil--nothing can do that--but they can provide power, and are at their best in a LOCAL set-up. And local, community-based society is what's going to get through post-Peak best, and be the way to live after all the worst of the horrible stuff passes.

Really IS a shame you can't get to that conference, especially as it's RIGHT THERE in your area! But I know it's the school year, and football season's prime time for a marching band. What the others have been telling you is right on target--your KNOWING about PO and what's coming puts you in a much better position than most people, who are either ignorant of it, or are denying it. Being psychologically prepared is as important as being physically prepared--in fact, it may make all the difference!

Good luck in the school year ahead. And do come back to this site and read and learn, even if you don't post. Anything you do learn, or have questions about, post it! We're all trying to get through this together. And it's more encouraging than you know, for us "oldsters" to know people of your age are "getting it." You're the ones that'll be building the bulk of the post-Peak world, you know! Hopefully, some of our age group can help you get the chance to do it! Thanks for posting, and come back often! :)
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