[retiredguy]

My point was simply that continuing business-as-usual is surely going to lead to a catastrophe and that mitigation needs to start NOW not when the crisis is upon us. Sitting back and letting things take their course is definitely not the answer IMHO. It's very peculiar attitude for soft-landers to take, particularly when US policy is 180 degrees from where you want to be. You're going to let W and company steer and hope they take you where you want to go?

I lived through the Viet Nam era. What some of you are saying is exactly what I heard during the early years of the war. The government knows what it doing; I can't change government policy; nothing I can do as an individual, etc. etc. Well, if we had done nothing to stir up opposition to the war, do you think the US would have exited Vietnam? It was only when politicians faced the fact that they might not be re-elected did they reconsider their positions concerning the war.

It's obvious to me that US policy to continue exploitation of fossil fuels. That policy is inevitably going to lead to conflict. Americans will back this policy as long as they believe it will allow them to maintain their current lifestyles or something very close to it.

[holmes]

Greed = doom.
Its the culture of over industrialism.

Its all we really do, A-RON. OIL.OIL OIL.

CONSUME.
FAT. I believe we are up to 50% of the US being obese. I think its more.
very little Paradigm shift.
It will be 20$ gallon of gas and no jobs soon enough. With massive loads of human biomass.
we have the ability to produce and consume. And not produce more shit. Real life sustaining production. but we are not.

when oil gets real expensive born deads will be in for a shock. Hell ill be in for a shock. Its how things work.
Can most graze off of homegrown vegtables and cut out 70% of protein bloat?
In a short time frame?
LOL.

[holmes]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'H')i Retired_Guy,

Peak Oil is happening on a very large scale and what I do in particular is not going to affect it. And what is more, I'm not too worried about having to "do" anything about it. Perhaps if we prepare well in advance we can avoid some disruptions, but in the grand scheme of thing I don't expect peak oil to create large disruptions, so why bother trying to mitigate them. I am much more worried about the environment in general. I do think that the degredation of the environment is the critical issue of our time and I get involved on those issues.

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Decon', 'w')hen i first heard about PO a few years ago (thanks, matt, for scaring the shit out of me) my doomerosity level was like 47,000,000. Since then, I've done a fair amount of research, come to grips with things a bit, gotten somewhat more of a hold on my financial situation, considered alternative viewpoints, and settled somewhere in the middle of the road.

[retiredguy]

The only way you are going to see a radical change in attitude is via the same mechanism that galvantized opposition to the war in Viet Nam. Just about every night, the news opened with footage from the war. In those days cameramen were allowed to film the troops in the field. The military has gotten smarter since then.

Hand in hand with war news was coverage of the demonstrations/riots staged by the anti-war movement. It took years of this media saturation before people started saying enough.

This is what PO needs to garner the attention and support of the masses. A small story on the third page of the WSJ every two weeks ain't gonna do it.

Hey, for those of you who are younger than me, this is your future, not mine. Business-as-usual gives me maybe ten good years of retirement with minimal sacrifice. Why are you so complacently giving this to me???

[nero]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('retiredguy', 'M')y point was simply that continuing business-as-usual is surely going to lead to a catastrophe and that mitigation needs to start NOW not when the crisis is upon us. Sitting back and letting things take their course is definitely not the answer IMHO. It's very peculiar attitude for soft-landers to take, particularly when US policy is 180 degrees from where you want to be. You're going to let W and company steer and hope they take you where you want to go?

[retiredguy]

Depressions tend to be catastrophes for those who don't survive them.

So..., nero, it's simply business-as-usual and things will sort themselves out? Any more votes for this course of action?

Looks as if my concerns about my remaining years were misplaced.

[cat]

For me, it has become difficult to separate peak oil out from other issues facing us today. It seems that peak oil is ultimately tied to climate change, peak domestic natural gas, water issues, war in the middle east, nuclear buildup, runaway consumerism, a seeming fragile US economy, on and on. If we were only facing peak oil, maybe we could go on with only a slight bump in the road. But it seems all these issues are tied and beginning to merge upon us. It is hard for me to imagine that that it is all onehundred years away. I look at how much we have changed the natural world in only 50 years of growth, with exponential growth and a populace which seems horribly unaware I'm afraid my "doomerosity level" goes up.

[johnmarkos]

I have a lot of reasons for not being a doomer. For one thing, I do not believe that the numbers that really matter -- population and human ecological footprint -- are growing exponentially. They're growing but not exponentially.

Joel E. Cohen, writing in How Many People Can the Earth Support, convinced me that human population is not growing exponentially.

Here's a graph showing the growth of the human ecological footprint. Again, it is growing but not exponentially.

I do agree that we are in overshoot. However, overshoot does not guarantee collapse.

I have done the reading.

[Seeker]

I don't really accept the label of doomer, but apparently the mainstream defines the frame. According to the mainstream (mostly those who are unaware of Peak Oil), I'm pessimistic beyond belief -- mostly because we simply cannot imagine a life without our comfortable addictions.

But I'm just trying to be realistic about the state of the world. Were the Jews who fled to other countries before the Holocaust "Doomers", or were they smart? In history there is a huge precedent for cultish/religious predictions of the end of the world, with none of them coming true. Why should anything be different now?

I imagine near the end of the Roman Empire there were people just like you and me, trying to look at the big picture and determine the actions we wish to take because of that.

I see no real separation between any of us here -- we're all humans, we're all just trying to live our lives the best we can. I'm not going to insult an "optimist", just as I expect "optimists" to not insult me. If the cynics/self-termed "realists" are correct, then the optimists have nothing to lose. The preparations that the doomers make will allow for a greater chance of survival of the human race. If the "optimists" are right, the preparations the "doomers" have made will simply have been superfluous... but many who prepare for the worst have found that becoming more independent of the system has been a largely positive thing. (There was a thread on this somewhere.)

However, given a full perspective of the state of the world -- the severe degradation of our ecosystems, the consumeristic society, the power structure and its self-perpetuation, the ignorance of the majority of the population, and the laws of ecology and physics -- society as we elites know it is not going to be able to continue on the way we would like it to. For the future human populations of this Earth, this will no doubt be a good thing. The majority of the human race lives daily with hunger, poverty, and oppression beyond our imagination.

Most people will choose to ignore these issues, saying (or thinking subconsciously) that it is nothing we have power over. But those who do choose the truth, those who do choose to take that red pill, we can learn how to separate ourselves from the system. We can learn how to fight it, and how to change it.

So maybe I am a "doomer", but I just seek the truth. And if the truth is something unpleasant, this does not matter to me. Only when we know the truth can we do something about it.

[nero]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('retiredguy', 'D')epressions tend to be catastrophes for those who don't survive them.

So..., nero, it's simply business-as-usual and things will sort themselves out? Any more votes for this course of action?

Looks as if my concerns about my remaining years were misplaced.

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jm', 'J')oel E. Cohen, writing in How Many People Can the Earth Support, convinced me that human population is not growing exponentially.

[johnmarkos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'T')his begs the question that only exponential growth will lead to collapse.

[killJOY]

jm, you're aware that Catton, et al., see that as "ghost acreage" and "phantom carrying capacity"? The Green Revolution has done exactly what you describe: reduce "footprint" via massive fossil energy inputs. The crisis comes when you take that energy away: All these people, crammed into a hot air balloon, and suddenly the propane begins to wane....

Thanks for the readings, too.

[johnmarkos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'j')m, you're aware that Catton, et al., see that as "ghost acreage" and "phantom carrying capacity"? The Green Revolution has done exactly what you describe: reduce "footprint" via massive fossil energy inputs. The crisis comes when you take that energy away: All these people, crammed into a hot air balloon, and suddenly the propane begins to wane....

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', ' ')I don't think the populous nations of the world are using a great quantity of fossil fuel to feed their people.

[johnmarkos]

Ludi, where you see great quantities of fossil fuel energy going to produce and transport food, I see massive waste. In the U.S., we have a system designed to provide consumers with exactly what they want, whenever they want it. If that happens to be avocados from Chile, no problem!

I am not convinced that we need great quantities of fossil fuel energy to feed the world's billions.

[FatherOfTwo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', 'L')udi, where you see great quantities of fossil fuel energy going to produce and transport food, I see massive waste. In the U.S., we have a system designed to provide consumers with exactly what they want, whenever they want it. If that happens to be avocados from Chile, no problem!

I am not convinced that we need great quantities of fossil fuel energy to feed the world's billions.

[Olaf]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'S')ee my problem is that I feel the need to prepare for a moderately doomeristic future while holding out hope for a mere speed bump - since there is no All (or None) Of The Above option; I have to vote moderate.

I’m a dyed in the wool moral relativist however so that must lean me toward being a doomer.

As does my Geiger counter and copy of Nuk. War Survival Skills.

As does the number of [unspecified] I own as well as the amount of corresponding [unspecified]. (LOL!)

But I have no bunker, teach my grandkids how to fly June bugs and speak politely as well as shoot firearms and butcher chickens, I still have a little money in an IRA and I’m as continually amazed by the selflessness of people as by their cruelty.


I think to place one's self firmly in one camp (by action in the real world as opposed to mere digital posturing in this one) is to inevitably be surprised at the limited nature of our grasp of the present, let alone the future.