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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

If MATT leaves then I think I am leaving too.

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

If MATT leaves then I think I am leaving too.

Postby Yamaha_R6 » Fri 03 Sep 2004, 01:52:49

Why, because I cannot take the stupidity any longer. Everyone wants to argue these theorys that do not make any sense.

My FAVORITE ONE is:

We will starve because we wont have pesticides and fertilizers or oil to transport and grow food.

This is funny because if we are not using oil FOR THAT, the most important thing imaginable, then we sure are not using it for anything else. And if we are using no oil then we should have a lot of it very quickly! If we are not using it for farming, then where the heck is it going? IT MAKES NO SENSE but everyone here WANTS TO ARGUE this.

Then we have the whackos who think nuclear war is going to kill us all.

Then we have the other people who like to ignore that cars can be made to run on electricity with ranges as long as 140 miles for as little as 25,000$. And the fact that most electricity does not come from oil, and with breeders you can have as much nuclear as you want giving us the ability to reliably increase the power in the grid to support cars.

BUT OH NO. They always have complications..... excuses excuses excuses.... we cant do that.... it takes OIL to make nuclear reactors... it takes OIL to make cars. BIG FREAKIN DEAL! OIL ISN'T RUNNING OUT! Its just going to be more scarce. These people act like we will have no oil for anything (WHICH DOESN'T MAKE SENSE). It takes more money then we have! I guess we will just die then. Since when did money ever stop us in a war/crisis situation. Think of England or germany in WW2. MONEY MEANT NOTHING, if they needed to build this and this to maintain life, then they did it regardless of "costs". People will do whats has to be done, if that means building power plants then big whoop-di-do. We have gone through A LOT WORST!

Everyone has excuses for everything. I just cant take it anymore. If you all want to be stupid and believe that peak oil is going to be the problem of the century and that we could all die, GO AHEAD. I have tried to use reason. It's failed. I think a lot of you want this to happen in some sort of sick way and you are all trying to find reasons for it to happen.

I will continue to post in this thread... after that I am taking a break for a while.
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Postby jato » Fri 03 Sep 2004, 01:59:43

I think you should stick around and learn a thing or two. I know I am gaining valuable knowledge from reading on this board. :)
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Postby NevadaGhosts » Fri 03 Sep 2004, 02:20:58

Oil won't run out all at once. But there is no debate that it will get scarcer and scarcer in the future. That is the problem. A big problem. No one here is debating peak oil really. The big debate is not if, but when. No one really knows when. We all have our opinions. All of this arguing is really pointless and counter-productive.

If you insist on leaving, well... bye.
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Postby OilsNotWell » Fri 03 Sep 2004, 02:23:24

Yamaha, I appreciate your reasoned insight, I really do. I suspect others do as well.

I, for one, couldn't sleep for days in the beginning thinking about all this. Some others are going through the process. It's easy enough to do. Let's all remember to breathe! :)

One of my favorite authors is Douglas Adams, of The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy trilogy (well, actually, there was four..he, he). Arthur Dent narrowly ecaped destruction as Earth (described in the guide as "mostly harmless") was destroyed to make way for a alien hypersonic bypass... :roll:

Remember the words on the guide?

DON'T PANIC.
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Postby nero » Fri 03 Sep 2004, 04:29:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')emember the words on the guide?

DON'T PANIC.


Ah, very useful advice in any situation. Love the hithhikers guide. I haven't read it for years but some of the concepts were so original that I wish it was required reading in high school. Then I could mention SEP (sombody else's problem) invisibility and people wouldn't look at me strangely.
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Postby nigel » Fri 03 Sep 2004, 04:33:58

Yamaha6 - Wrong reason for your in/decision. By arguing against the 'add water and stir' die-offs' you do everyone a service. Matt Savinaar, in my opinion, lacked balance, erudition and honesty in his snake-oil salesman's approach to flogging his regurgitations.

One's initial reaction to 'peak oil' is PANIC but this subsides as soon as one gets to grips with what we know. Which is not a lot. Unless there is balance and reason this site will belong to the Savinaars. In fact I think he was driven away, not so much by the childish rows as by the fact that when his position was nailed he had no response beyond abuse, confounding arguments and googlectualisms.

Should we all initiate our own EGO threads in response to Savinaar's rout or would it not be better if this was part of his?
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Postby Madpaddy » Fri 03 Sep 2004, 05:13:05

As "The Guide said" Don't forget your towel !!!

Oh God I loved that book too. Douglas Adams died a few years ago didn't he. There were five books in the trilogy in the end. The last book was "Mostly Harmless". hE WAS WRITING A SIXTH WHEN HE DIED. i THINK THE BITS HE HAS WRITTEN ARE IN A BOOK CALLED THE sALMON OF KNOWLEDGE.

Sorry for the caps. Too lazy to go back and correct.
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Postby Agren » Fri 03 Sep 2004, 07:11:10

Off topic...

The book you are refereing to is called "The Salmon of doubt". If you're a DA fan and haven't read it you really need to pick it up, it's a fin book. He was writing on a book when he died, but it was Dirk Gently book, it might have been a Hitchhiker book in the end though, wasn't really a Gently-type book

Also read "Last chance to see". The best traveljournal I've ever read
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Postby PhilBiker » Fri 03 Sep 2004, 10:03:57

Well then just fucking leave, both you with Matt, and both of you quit the 5th grade schoolyard drama crap about why you´re taking your damn ball and going home. I'm sick of it, and I´ll bet most of the other people reading this stie are also.

Don´t let the door hit you on the way out.
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Postby trespam » Fri 03 Sep 2004, 10:49:48

As the Buddha said: search for the middle path. Perhaps most of us won't die, perhaps civilization won't collapse. Then again, your arguments that we'll muddle through is not informed by anything more than anecdotal evidence. Perhaps Buddha was an economist. Always saying "on the one hand this," "on the other hand that." The truth is probably somewhere in the middle: but not always.

To every historical argument, there is a counterargument. Many though oil would run out early in the twentieth century: it didn't. Many Jews in WWII Germany thought they would be able to ride out the anti-semitic storm: they didn't.

I say do your homework and bring ideas and quantitative data to this board. Your proposals are fine, but also anecdotal. I for one have no idea how things will play out. Anyone who thinks they do is dishonest.

The world probably has the capacity to sustain 6-odd billion people through depletion if we were to put in place the appropriate population control and food control policies. But I'm not counting on it. I think greed and self-interest will make a compassionate, fair response to peak oil difficult or impossible to implement. So it will be messy at times.
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Postby MarkL » Fri 03 Sep 2004, 12:51:44

Yes, when oil becomes scarce, it will be force-routed to agriculture and food distribution(and of course defense). What’s that do for the people that can no longer drive to work? We will have no work, no pay, no consumption and no taxes. Even if you did have money, without production and distribution there wouldn’t be anything to buy. The government will print more money to pay off those that are trying to quell the disillusioned masses(as well as make debt payments). Won’t all of this lead to depression AND inflation? (ok, so I’m not an economist)

So when will oil become scarce? That is the question isn’t it? How long do you think it would take for it to become scarce if fundamentalists took over SA tomorrow? So maybe it won’t be till next year or five years from now. Aren’t you concerned for what will happen to your children? Don’t you think having a plan, being prepared and developing pre-oil skills would be useful?

Oil supplies may stabilize after the peak as things slow down but there will always be less and less of it available. By then, we will be in a police state and the government will control the flow of oil. Don’t you think you’d want to have a plan for when this occurs?

Note that the ‘you’ in the preceding paragraphs is not meant for anyone in particular. I haven’t been on this board long enough to really get to know anyone. I guess it’s directed at YOU, the reader - the one without a plan.
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Postby RIPSmithianEconomics » Fri 03 Sep 2004, 13:40:45

I've always suspected that Yamaha wasn't a generalist. He doesn't seem to be capable of sitting back and watching- he even seems to care what a couple of isolated people across the world think. Perhaps he feels that if they don't believe it can happen, it never can? It is better to extract an ounce of gold from a pound of earth than to find no gold at all.
There'll be war, there'll be peace
But one day all things shall cease
All the iron turned to rust
All the proud men turned to dust
So all things time will mend
So this song will end
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Postby big_rc » Fri 03 Sep 2004, 15:49:11

What in the hell is the matter with you people? We are on the verge of some monumental changes in the way we live and the main threads are people whining because their feelings are hurt or somebody called them bad names or people disagree with them about how quickly the world will crash when Peak Oil hits. So now Matt and Yamaha need a siesta to massage some bruised egos. I think it's time to get a grip and just a little perspective. Also let me tell you a little secret. The world doesn't revolve around you all of the time.

OK, I suggest that anyone else who is nursing some tender feelings to go ahead and post them on this thread because I for one have had enough "I'm going to quit because nobody loves me but my mama" threads for the time being. Feel free and let the inner drama queen flow out and express those hurt and damaged feelings so that we can all (in the words of Bill "The Thrill" Clinton) feel your pain.
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Postby lotrfan55345 » Fri 03 Sep 2004, 16:48:04

We wont miss you post-peak!

:D :lol:
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Re: If MATT leaves then I think I am leaving too.

Postby twxabfn » Fri 03 Sep 2004, 18:51:43

MarkL, your post is fantastic, and I think finally addresses what Yamaha has been complaining about. With apologies, I'm going to take the main thrust of your post and supplement it with my own knowledge I've gained from the last couple months of nonstop reading on this subject.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yamaha_R6', 'M')y FAVORITE ONE is:

We will starve because we wont have pesticides and fertilizers or oil to transport and grow food.

This is funny because if we are not using oil FOR THAT, the most important thing imaginable, then we sure are not using it for anything else.


As MarkL said, it is (hopefully) true that when oil begins to get scarce, we will prioritize our use of it and use it exclusively for agriculture and food distribution. It is also true, however, that if we are using oil primarily for agriculture and food distribution, then we have less and less oil to use for all of its other uses - heating, plastics, medicine, transportation, manufacturing, etc. - and thus the quality of life that we enjoy currently is going to decline.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd if we are using no oil then we should have a lot of it very quickly!


You're forgetting one very, very important thing: it takes oil to get oil. There's not some spigot sticking up out of the ground that the oil companies just stick barrels underneath and twist the valve. It takes energy to drill, it takes energy to pump, and right now that energy comes from previously pumped oil/other fossil fuels.

Considering how important oil is to all facets of our modern society, if we ever are "using no oil", that means that there is simply no more to be used.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hen we have the whackos who think nuclear war is going to kill us all.


I personally don't think that there will be any significant global nuclear war to come out of the coming resource wars. As you pointed out once, what is to be gained by China hitting the US mainland with a nuclear missile, or vice versa? In fact, considering how significant a contributor the US is to the world's food supply, attacking us would be incredibly foolhardy.

Still, if current global geopolitics are any indication, a large portion of the world's resources are going to spend the forseeable future being pumped into wars to control the oil-producing territories of the world. Again, spending oil to get oil, not to mention wasting the lives of the (mostly) poor people who end up in the armies that end up fighting these wars.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd the fact that most electricity does not come from oil, and with breeders you can have as much nuclear as you want giving us the ability to reliably increase the power in the grid to support cars.


That's true, most electricity does not come from oil - it comes from either natural gas, which has a tendency to decline much faster than oil after it peaks, and coal, the burning of which produces a lot of pollution, which contributes to climate change and the fouling of what nature we have left (and the level of biodiversity is directly proportional to the health and strength of an ecosystem - read "The Future of Life" by Edward O. Wilson).

As far as breeder reactors go, most of the existing breeder or even "fast" reactors are either experimental, in the process of being built, or have already been decommissioned. In my opinion, it doesn't bode well to bank one's entire future energy prediction on a developmental and potentially dangerous technology that has yet to produce a significant portion of the world's power.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')UT OH NO. They always have complications..... excuses excuses excuses.... we cant do that.... it takes OIL to make nuclear reactors... it takes OIL to make cars. BIG FREAKIN DEAL! OIL ISN'T RUNNING OUT! Its just going to be more scarce. These people act like we will have no oil for anything (WHICH DOESN'T MAKE SENSE).


It's not that we will have no oil for anything, it's just that we will have LESS oil for EVERYTHING - including powering our transition over to an oil-less society. Considering all the uses for oil that have been mentioned above - agriculture, transportation, heating, construction, manufacture, plastics, medicines, etc. - don't you think we should be DAMN sure we're doing the right thing with the oil we have left, instead of blindly pumping it into vain attempts to maintain our current, wasteful quality of life?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t takes more money then we have! I guess we will just die then.


You know, by this point in my Peak Oil education I don't feel the need to constantly take things to the extreme that you are ridiculing in the second statement, but if you don't see anything fundamentally wrong with the first statement then you're a fool.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eople will do whats has to be done, if that means building power plants then big whoop-di-do. We have gone through A LOT WORST!


Actually, we haven't. The closest humanity in general has come to anything like this is back when the British were running out of firewood in the sixteenth century. How did they get out of their energy crisis, you ask? They discovered coal, a resource that was more energy dense and more abundant than the one they were previously using.

Unfortunately, we're not going to get the same "deus ex machina" benefit they did.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')veryone has excuses for everything. I just cant take it anymore. If you all want to be stupid and believe that peak oil is going to be the problem of the century and that we could all die, GO AHEAD. I have tried to use reason. It's failed. I think a lot of you want this to happen in some sort of sick way and you are all trying to find reasons for it to happen.

You have used reason, I'll give you that. Short-sighted, self-centered reason, but reason nonetheless.

Peak oil IS going to be the problem of the century. Most likely, however, we will all die only if the majority of humanity chooses to *ignore* that PO will be the problem of the century.

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Since Matt Savinar and Yamaha are leaving, I am going to...

Postby JayHMorrison » Fri 03 Sep 2004, 19:26:26

.... hang out and stay a while. I like it here.

It reminds me of my college days.
[smilie=XXpuke.gif]
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Postby Guest » Fri 03 Sep 2004, 19:39:51

Classic...vanity post...funny, too.

It's not college, it's grade-school playground.

Matt wants us to come over to his house and ask him for the ball back. But he'll say only if he can play, too.

[smilie=iamwithstupid.gif]

How you and Matt never got along is beyond me, since you both believed oil depletion is a serious issue.

I liked reading both of your comments.

Now back to work discussing peak oil! [smilie=XXfart.gif]
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fail to see

Postby Cool Hand Linc » Fri 03 Sep 2004, 21:05:20

When the statement is made about food being most important. You must remember that it is not just growing food but the infrastucture involved in growing and delivering the food to people.

To keep growing hugh amounts of food. You must have the tractors and other machinery needed to grow and harvest. Then the food must be trucked to the people. Most foods must be handled in some special way to keep it from going bad or being eaten by pests.

Big trucks and tractors need tires and the industry that makes tires is required for this.

This is just a start. It's not just one aspect that you must see but the big picture. Any link in the chain becomes weak and it will snap.

I actually think the chain will just keep getting weaker until a failure occurs.
Peace out!

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TWX...

Postby jato » Fri 03 Sep 2004, 22:09:38

Re Nuclear war:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n fact, considering how significant a contributor the US is to the world's food supply, attacking us would be incredibly foolhardy.


I enjoyed your post. However, you are taking a fact of today and using it in the future. Come Post Peak Oil, the USA may not be exporting any food. At some point down the road of decline, the US will probably only be able to feed it's own people (I hope they can). That that point, we might be nuked to take us out of the game. I foresee resource wars ahead. As of right now, I see us "winning" (for lack of a better word) the resource wars. Those on the loosing end of the stick (who's populations will rapidly dieing off) may be "forced" to use nuclear weapons.

Scary stuff! :)
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Postby Guest » Fri 03 Sep 2004, 23:57:32

^^^^ it's posts like that one that made me make the decision to only post in this thread and then take a break for a while. Read it...., its SOOOO stupid. I don't want to waste my time arguing about something as stupid as that.

Really I am taking a break because 1. This is pointless. 2. I have other things i need to do for the next few months.

At first I was planning to just post less and less and then just stop for a while, but then when I saw Matt's big, GOODBYE BID ME FAREWELL, i thought, That looks like fun I think i'll do that too!

I know that peak oil isn't going to really hurt me in any way, it may effect me, but i don't believe it will be negative. I have no reason, (other then my own amusement), to convince you all of this. I have tried and tried but many of you wont listen. Its the excuses that bother me, you can make excuses for why anything cant or wont work. If everyone doubted themselves the way you all do nothing ever would have gotten done. You seem to be bent over die-offs, if not from peak oil then from something else like not enough water or nuclear war.

This is a very entertaining subject, but thats all it is, entertainment. Nothing bu a bunch of what if scenarios. You'll all see, time will prove me right. Things are all going to switch over to electricity, it's already begun. Electricity will be generated from a few hundred more nuclear reactors, a lot more coal plants (with filters to remove pollution), more geothermal, and a lot more solar and wind. We will use tar sands and remaining oil to make plastics and run factories to build cars ect.

If you want to make excuses as to why this wont work go ahead..... But i am sure they will be stupid...

Like the, we cant make electric industry and produce electric cars without the oil that we wont have post peak, this goes along with the "we are not using any but still don't have any oil" theory that makes no sense... :roll:

Then we have economic collapse = starvation... :roll: Somehow food stamps don't exist in the future... even though we will still have food, because we still have oil, (just not enough to power 300million cars), this is where the plug in hybrid comes in along with rationing of oil and energy.


We could keep going like this... but once again there is no point.
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