[Tuike]

Peter Turchin: End Times, Elites, Counter-Elits and the Path of Political Disintegration (2023)
This is not a peak oil book or climate change book. It's about how nations tend to get into trouble after max of 200 years of good times. The author has a large databank in his lab, which info he uses to calculate how long it takes untils restlessness begins. One of signs of trouble is when a nation has too many princes or other rich people, who compete each other to seek to become rulers. A nation can end up in a situation like this when a money pump is activated to transfer money from poor people to rich. According to author, this kind of money pump has been active in the USA for 40 years before 2016. Those Americans who haven't gone through four year college education, their economic situation has worsened for decades, which are 64 percent of the population.

There are good reasons to think why the Deplorable well being matters. If they sink into abyss it undermines the stability of the society. It undermines the justification of the institutes and weakens the nation. The peasants might mobilize into violent forces.

According to the author however, a civil war is hard to get in the USA, as long as police is working efficiently, and the is no public support for revolution. A successful revolution requires a revolutionary party with deep support of the people, like in China. If three or more people form a radical group, they are most likely to be infiltrated by FBI.

[AgentR11]

As long as there is bread available at the swipe of an EBT card, there will be no revolution. Taking those EBT cards away from illegals is perhaps a bit hazardous, but it doesn't reach the levels of discontent that would be necessary for any kind of political overthrow.

Just my opinion...

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tuike', '[')b]Peter Turchin: End Times, Elites, Counter-Elits and the Path of Political Disintegration (2023)
This is not a peak oil book or climate change book. It's about how nations tend to get into trouble after max of 200 years of good times.