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Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 15 Dec 2024, 01:27:57

An interesting article here. While the little gamblers are off in their own world of "BC to the moon" the analysts at the front end of crypto are commenting on an interesting phenomena. So called Digital Gold, BC, can't actually outrun physical gold. Many coin sites are discussing this.

Is Bitcoin topping out? Gold fractal hints at 35% BTC price correction ahead
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Bitcoin BTC tickers down $102,372 looks poised to undergo sharp price correction in the coming days, based on a fractal that measures its performance against gold. For context, the top cryptocurrency has rallied by over 132% in 2024, including a 47% rally after Donald Trump’s election win in November.

The Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio (BTCUSD/GC1!) has climbed into a key resistance zone between 34 and 37, a level historically associated with local market tops. At the same time, the ratio’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) has breached the overbought threshold of 70, signaling potential overextension.

This pattern has previously aligned with sharp price declines in Bitcoin’s USD pair (BTC/USD).
https://cointelegraph.com/news/is-bitco ... correction

This would certainly explain BC's failure to get a foothold past the 100k level. In the same way Gold is bouncing around the $2.7k level.

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby careinke » Sun 15 Dec 2024, 20:33:08

BTC all-time highs..... again. Haven't been this high since last week. :lol:

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 16 Dec 2024, 17:14:28

Now what was the price on my last lap? Oh that's right, I remember now

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby careinke » Tue 17 Dec 2024, 06:46:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'A')n interesting article here. While the little gamblers are off in their own world of "BC to the moon" the analysts at the front end of crypto are commenting on an interesting phenomena. So called Digital Gold, BC, can't actually outrun physical gold. Many coin sites are discussing this.

Is Bitcoin topping out? Gold fractal hints at 35% BTC price correction ahead
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Bitcoin BTC tickers down $102,372 looks poised to undergo sharp price correction in the coming days, based on a fractal that measures its performance against gold. For context, the top cryptocurrency has rallied by over 132% in 2024, including a 47% rally after Donald Trump’s election win in November.

The Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio (BTCUSD/GC1!) has climbed into a key resistance zone between 34 and 37, a level historically associated with local market tops. At the same time, the ratio’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) has breached the overbought threshold of 70, signaling potential overextension.

This pattern has previously aligned with sharp price declines in Bitcoin’s USD pair (BTC/USD).
https://cointelegraph.com/news/is-bitco ... correction

This would certainly explain BC's failure to get a foothold past the 100k level. In the same way Gold is bouncing around the $2.7k level.

Image


OK you trolled me again, I'll bite. :)

First, might I suggest you use candlestick charts instead of line charts, the information content is an order of magnitude higher. Then again, if you post anything useful, I will not trust it and check it out on my own. Don't feel special, I check almost everything.

Second, during the three-year bull run of the four-year cycle, pullbacks greater than 30% are common and expected. Most knowledgeable traders take advantage of them. Newbies usually get wrecked by them. Although I doubt it will happen this year for several reasons, with the first being the RSI has turned down before going into the oversold areas.

I'm not sure where you picked up the idea BC can't outrun gold, the first chart in the article disproves that (at least for this year) what a glorious chart, something you would put in a textbook showing its amazing strength.

The second slide labeled $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')TCUSD/GC1! weekly performance chart
Is also a great chart. It uses a fifty-week moving average which is a couple of weeks short for 24/7 BTC, but who cares, close enough. My first impression was "What a great looking, massive cup and handle pattern set to explode to at least $125K add in the traditional Santa Rally maybe higher.

Also remember 2017 and 2021 were hit with a LOT of economic Black Swans including: Covid Virus, Bidenomics, a HUGE growing Debt, Isolation, Riots, Lawfare, reversal of Roe V Wade, Massive political corruption, a brain dead president, FTX, Child mutilations, Murder... I mean ending the life of a viable human being at the whim of the birthing person with no due process or representation given to the child. Parents, especially Catholics, were deemed terrorists. Students' academic achievements dropped by two years, life expectancy declined, Health, food, and energy costs all rose. Finally, Pocahontas, Shifty, and the insider trading Pelosi formed the Anti Crypto Army, in an effort to bring in their own Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).

That said, some say that bull run had so much negative pressure, it underperformed and should have topped out at $100K. Of course it did not.

The second half of this bull run will be/has been hit by a large amount of White Swans including; the Trump victory, Gary Gensler's resignation, DOGE, Trumps Cabinet, Barron Trump, the crypto PACs, MSTR on the NASDQ (39th place of 1000) allowing for Options Trading, Pro Crypto stances on both sides of the congress, in the treasury, adoption of BTC by countries, states, retirement funds public and private, businesses, charities, and Sovereign Individuals.

These things make me feel Joy unburdened by the past. This will be a way better revolution than the 1960's especially with Gabbard and Bobby Kennedy on board.

Game theory is definitely in play here, I predict BTC will have at least touched "1 MILLION DOLLARS" by the end of 2025.

BTW I plan on giving my kids BTC for X-mas, I will offer to buy it back in a year at the price I bought them. I'm guessing a lot of others will be doing the same.

One final interesting tidbit for you. If you graph out a daily price chart based on the 200-weekly average price, BTC has NEVER had a single down day. :)

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 17 Dec 2024, 17:10:25

I'm not trolling you inke, you are not that sort of poster, not a total useless eater like Adam_b. I'm simply posting facts that are counter to your opinions (beliefs) on BC and that is triggering you. You are being "Triggered" not trolled.

This is What the Final Stage of the Everything Bubble Looks Like
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;Every financial bubble bursts—not some, not most, but all of them," warns ITM Trading's Taylor Kenney in her latest breakdown of the Everything Bubble. From euphoria to panic, history shows the same pattern repeating today, we’re deep in the delusion stage.

Kenney exposes the dangerous delusion stage we’re in today:

A record divergence between income expectations and soaring stock prices.
The S&P 500’s top 10 companies now control nearly 40% of the market cap, a level unseen since the 2000 dot-com collapse.
FOMO-driven speculation as everyday investors pile in, convinced the highs will keep getting higher.

A simple video for simple minds
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Uyqvy-SHfQ

Greed, it undoes them every time. People of low estate, dreaming of being wealthy but not willing to put in the hard yards to make it buy into bubbles. They see it as an "All In" affair, this is their big moon-shot, this one will set them up for life. Kenney doesn't even go into the 'other' headwinds that point to a collapse of the everything bubble. Like the Massive debts at every level of society, debts that by law need to be reconciled, one way or the other. (repayment or bankruptcy and loss of assets). Nor the simple fact that everything underlying these bubble assets is powered by oil gas and coal, which we are rapidly losing access to.

These investments in digital markets are the Gambler ethos with a cloak of respectability. The only difference between the purveyors of Casino gains and financial market gains is the backdrop.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')bstract

Although stock splits seem to be a purely cosmetic event, there exists ample empirical evidence from the United States that stock splits are associated with abnormal returns on both the announcement and the execution day, and additionally with an increase in variance following the ex-day. This paper investigates the market reaction to stock splits using a set of German firms. Consistent with the U.S. findings, similar effects are observed for the sample of German stock splits. Institutional differences between Germany and the U.S. allow to disentangle the three main hypotheses on the announcement effect - signalling, liquidity, and neglected firm hypothesis ? to gain further insights into their relative explanation power.

This paper argues that legal restrictions strongly limit the ability of German companies to use a stock split for signaling. Consistently, abnormal returns around the announcement day are much lower in Germany than in the U.S.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 17 Dec 2024, 17:39:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')One final interesting tidbit for you. If you graph out a daily price chart based on the 200-weekly average price, BTC has NEVER had a single down day. :)
Peace

Oh please Hitman, you can't play silly selective statistics games with Lucky, for crying out loud the guy didn't get out of high school, let alone figure out why he should, or should not, get into market tracking funds, let alone some of the more exotic products.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 19 Dec 2024, 05:35:11

is this what you bought adam?

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 20 Dec 2024, 02:37:59

Bitcoin no longer legal tender in El Salvador! :oops:
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/20 ... rrangement

Trump better talk to the IMF before he gets too far off the reservation. Presidents have been assassinated for going against the money powers.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby careinke » Sat 21 Dec 2024, 03:35:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '[')b]Bitcoin no longer legal tender in El Salvador! :oops:
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/20 ... rrangement

Trump better talk to the IMF before he gets too far off the reservation. Presidents have been assassinated for going against the money powers.


It's still legal, just no longer mandatory for businesses to accept it. This will be interesting to watch. He also has to liquidate the wallet they are using. Rather an odd request. It is expected he will use the IMF money to build his thermal power plants as that falls under IMF approved "Infrastructure".

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 21 Dec 2024, 10:23:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'i')s this what you bought adam?

Image

I posted a pic of what I got earlier. It ain't that. Obviously your memory is as incompetent as your understanding of what your favorite "oil" is.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 22 Dec 2024, 15:52:06

BC's having a bad hair week.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby careinke » Sun 22 Dec 2024, 21:53:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'B')C's having a bad hair week.


It lost about 10% this week, that is certainly not unexpected. In the past, we have had 5-7 pullbacks of > 35% during the final year of the Bull portion of the cycle. This year the pullbacks, so far, are smaller. I did manage to get some at exactly $100,000.00 for my two sons X-mas. I plan to tell them if they do not touch it for a year, I will buy it back if it is below what I paid for it.

In addition, I had a limit order fill at $92,420.00. I took the order out when BTC hit $108,000. I was using it not because I expected it to fill, but just a place to put FIAT while waiting for other opportunities. Turns out this was the opportunity. :-D . No more buying until after the 1st. It was the closest I have ever hit the bottom price for the week. :) Pure luck, NO ONE can predict tops and bottoms.

Interestingly, DOGE coin is the best performer this cycle, beating BTC by 500%. I think some rich celebrity is a fan. 8)

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 23 Dec 2024, 20:18:58

Merry xmas BTC


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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 25 Dec 2024, 14:38:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')Interestingly, DOGE coin is the best performer this cycle, beating BTC by 500%. I think some rich celebrity is a fan. 8)
PEACE


If some form or another of digital currency can be so volatile that some rich celebrity can cause it to bounce around so much, can it be considered an investment of any kind...other than that most closely resembling a penny stock?

To be honest if any one of my investments can do what BTC just did...I wouldn't be in them any more. I could understand dabbling, but it wouldn't form the basis for any of my long term investing.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby careinke » Thu 26 Dec 2024, 07:07:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')Interestingly, DOGE coin is the best performer this cycle, beating BTC by 500%. I think some rich celebrity is a fan. 8)
PEACE


If some form or another of digital currency can be so volatile that some rich celebrity can cause it to bounce around so much, can it be considered an investment of any kind...other than that most closely resembling a penny stock?

To be honest if any one of my investments can do what BTC just did...I wouldn't be in them any more. I could understand dabbling, but it wouldn't form the basis for any of my long-term investing.


DOGE coin was created as a joke, and Elon had nothing to do with its creation. He did find the humor in it and started pumping it for fun. Now I understand he is planning to use it for local currency on mars, I have not looked into how he plans to do that, but I'd bet it is technically possible. BTC will not work on Mars because it is too far away from Earth, can't run ten-minute blocks when you are hours away (speed of light). BTC is probably limited to Earth, Moon, and space stations orbiting the Earth for the same reason (of course it you have BTC sitting in your own wallet, it will stay there indefinitely at no cost to you and completely safe).

I don't play around much with meme coins because they seem pointless to me. Although I have lots of them because most of them are airdropped for free as a form of advertisement. Usually, they show up with a lot of value but immediately start plunging in price, most become worthless. Some people make pretty good money selling meme coins as soon as they are released. Of course, some could also be trojan horses with viruses. Not my cup of tea. I will not even open them or delete them from my wallets, all of my self-controlled wallets give me the option to just hide them.

That said, I did throw 100 bucks at SHIB, on a lark because I've never actually owned 33 million of anything. LOL Right now it is over $700 go figure, plus the SHIB dog is cuter than the DOGE dog.

Most of my crypto is in BTC, followed by SOL and its sub coins, because it is faster, cheaper, can handle much larger transaction volumes, has the most developers, and earns the most income based on volume not price. Decentralized exchanges are much cheaper to trade on than a brokerage like Coin Base, or BNB, safer too. The best Decentralized Exchanges (DEX) are run on SOL. The Jupiter exchange searches all the other Exchanges and uses the best one. It's awesome.

Celebrates always influence prices on products. I offer NIKE shoes as an example. People collect them and never wear them, most of them never sell them either, they are worth even more if autographed. Again, not my cup of tea, but I don't care if anyone else enjoys doing it. More power to them.

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 26 Dec 2024, 10:35:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')Celebrates always influence prices on products. I offer NIKE shoes as an example. People collect them and never wear them, most of them never sell them either, they are worth even more if autographed. Again, not my cup of tea, but I don't care if anyone else enjoys doing it. More power to them.
PEACE

While they might always influence prices, 500% for just one person saying/doing something strikes me as far more volatile than I'd be happy with.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 26 Dec 2024, 17:14:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')To be honest if any one of my investments can do what BTC just did...I wouldn't be in them any more.

Your investments! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Image

But I suppose compared to the homeless down by the trails and all the illegal immigrants squatting in flats across town you're doing ok. A big fish in a little pond.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 26 Dec 2024, 17:34:16

The thing is the vast majority of "average" investors in BC didn't get in until late in the game, they came in during the covid runup, and many used debt to do it. If the average of them are up 100% I'd be very surprised, and you only have to go over to the big subs on reddit to get the picture. 100% gains, 200%, it's not much to feel good about with such a volatile asset that is inextricably tied to the stock market fortunes. We all know the BC pattern, it will soon be up for another big correction, and another 2 years in the doldrums. And that's the Best outcome :razz:

Just lay a ruler along the peaks on the MAX chart
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
Say a future peak of 120k, divide it by 4 and you get a low of $30k. If Gold behaved like that I'd have been out long long ago.

Image

And if Silver has another one of it's famous booms I'll be a big seller, though what I'd do with the money I have no idea :|

Image

It's stupid to invest in something and not sell after massive gains when you know it's going to collapse anyway. But crypto hodlers aren't the sharpest tools in the shed.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 26 Dec 2024, 18:58:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')To be honest if any one of my investments can do what BTC just did...I wouldn't be in them any more.

Your investments! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


Indeed. Gold, market tracking funds, real estate, the usual. No BC though. The usual side effects of having some brains, education, and applying them to solving certain types of problems. You know, like you use your entire lifetime of education and experience to unclog a toilet.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 27 Dec 2024, 01:36:48

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