by AdamB » Thu 26 Sep 2024, 16:29:18
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '
')A factory closing shop and moving to china is not a sign of peak oil.
That was back in the 1970's, the USA's own date with peakOil. There was no China factories back then.
You're next comment?
Whatever it is, it'll most likely have some thought behind it.
But just as proof...you missed US peak oil by half a century...you can see why you need to brush up on the thinking thing.
US produces more oil than any country. Ever.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
by AdamB » Thu 26 Sep 2024, 16:39:12
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '
')Here's the worldwide per capita energy consumption
https://www.statista.com/statistics/130 ... 0footprint.
Although not a perfect barometer of standard of living, it's much better than peakoil.
What is your take on increased efficiencies offsetting the need for ever increasing per capita growth? It would seem like per capita growth would outrun increased efficiencies if only because developing countries really REALLY want to waste energy like the First Worlders...just because. Lucky being a prime example, gotta have gas guzzlers and ICE machines because he sure can't pretend his own country has come up with much besides Crocodile Dundee. The increased efficiencies the First Worlders are creating, when deployed earlier than otherwise in the life cycle of a developing country, would seem to be able to bring down per capita use quicker because they don't need to reinvent the wheel. Or EV.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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by theluckycountry » Thu 26 Sep 2024, 19:51:48
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '
')
Here's the worldwide per capita energy consumption
https://www.statista.com/statistics/130 ... 0footprint.
Although not a perfect barometer of standard of living, it's much better than peakoil. I'm looking forward to peak-energy-per-capita. That's hopefully more interesting than peak-oil. Peak-oil I subscribed to in 2005. But by 2008 I realized what a let-down it is.
Well I use that site, though that page is pay-walled to me and only part loads. I'd like to know what's actually the breakdown, like China for example uses mountains of electricity for industry, is that all ascribed to "per capita?" Obviously, but the average Chinese doesn't benefit from it aside from rapid transit probably. Then there is the massive global consumption from bitcoin, It's all per capita I guess though a lot of it doesn't go to improving our lives here in our homes.
Consider this Mousepad
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hilst global energy growth is growing from developing economies, the trend for many high-income nations is a notable decline. As we see in exemplar trends from the UK and US, the growth we are currently seeing in transitioning economies ended for many high-income nations by over the 1970s and 80s. Both the US and UK peaked in terms of per capita energy consumption in the 1970s
https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/mannman ... onsumptionSo other developing nations, China, India, with their billions have taken over. Good for them I suppose.
And this, from the iea
The mysterious case of disappearing electricity demand$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')4 February 2019 Electricity demand has increased by around 70% since 2000, and in 2017, global electricity demand increased by a further 3%. This increase was more than any other major fuel, pushing total demand to 22 200 terawatt-hours (TWh). Electricity now accounts for 19% of total final consumption, compared to just over 15% in 2000.
Yet while global demand growth has been strong, there are major disparities across regions. In particular, in recent years electricity demand in advanced economies has begun to flatten or in some cases decline – in fact electricity demand fell in 18 out of 30 IEA member countries over the period 2010-2017. Several factors can account for this slowing of growth, but the key reason is energy efficiency.
Over 40% of the slowdown in electricity demand was attributable to energy efficiency in industry, largely a result of strict, broadly applied, minimum energy performance standards for electric motors. In residential buildings, total energy use by certain classes of appliances has already peaked. For example, energy use for refrigerators (98% of which are covered by performance standards) is well below the high point reached in 2009, and energy use for lighting has also declined. In the absence of energy efficiency improvements, electricity demand in advanced economies would have grown at 1.6% per year since 2010, instead of 0.3%.
https://www.iea.org/commentaries/the-my ... ity-demandAn interesting read, though it's very country dependent. When I think of per capita I think of people in homes, our standards of living. Here with our immense rooftop solar build-out, running A/C units all day in Summer and Winter is becoming the norm. It's free energy once the panels and inverter are in and we even get paid for any excess we push back into the grid. But if you don't have it and you are on a lower income you'll only run those A/C split systems on the hottest days. So I will agree that energy consumption per capita has risen across the world, but I don't believe that is the case for the average homeowner in Western nations. Certainly not in Europe and the UK for some time now.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
by theluckycountry » Thu 26 Sep 2024, 19:54:50
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '[')img]https://img.youtube.com/vi/OhvygmASY_M/mqdefault.jpg[/img]
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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by theluckycountry » Thu 26 Sep 2024, 20:03:00
That IEA article I quoted above finishes with this BTW.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')ltimately, despite moderate growth in electricity demand, fuel-switching to electricity and energy efficiency improvements in the use of other fuels mean the share of electricity in final consumption is projected to increase to 27% in advanced economies by 2040, up from 22% today.
As we see, their analysis is jaded by the Hopium we'll all be tooling around in EV by 2040. Granted it's a 2019 work, PeakEv wasn't even on the radar then even though many of us knew it's was just a BS bubble. Making cars using twice the amount of fossil fuels so we can get off fossil fuels.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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by AdamB » Thu 26 Sep 2024, 21:51:54
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', ' ') Making cars using twice the amount of fossil fuels so we can get off fossil fuels.
My EV doesn't USE any fossil fuels. Unless you count putting tires on the thing? You do know what an EV runs on, right? You aren't really trying to look even more ignorant than normal as some sort of gag?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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by theluckycountry » Fri 27 Sep 2024, 03:52:38
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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by AdamB » Fri 27 Sep 2024, 13:05:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')
As I said before...when you don't have the IQ points to even debate your own points...there are always memes to hope no one notices the lack of response.
I'm sure your ditch digging or running a dozer taught you something across your lifetime of utilizing zero formal education, but dear god it didn't provide you with anything in the way of abstract or critical thinking either did it?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
