[theluckycountry]

If we do voluntarily rein in our consumption, it will be the first time in recorded history that a civilization has. So statistically speaking...

[Newfie]

Yup, I 100% get that.

NOT optimistic.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'Y')up, I 100% get that.

NOT optimistic.

[Newfie]

VT,

That is pretty much what I have been talking about.

We are on a brink, the sensible thing to-do would be to walk back. That is very unlikely (and stupid) but it is what we should plan for. Likely to be nasty, but when? I.possible to say.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')
We are on a brink, the sensible thing to-do would be to walk back.

[AdamB]

Fascinating video on recent US population growth. Or, apparently, not. But the knock on conclusions to what happens next in America is quite nicely laid out, with topics that are often mentioned around here as well.

The De-Population Bomb

[Newfie]

Yeah, talking about depopulation seems to have caught fashion as has Peter Zeihan. According to whom the really exposed countries who are fast track for collapse are Russia and China. They seem to be in a race to the bottom.

By contrast the USA’s problems are very minor and because of the relative nature, co oared to the rest of the West, we may do quite well.

There seems to be more evidence that China has been doctoring their demographics for at leas a decade and are further down the rabbit hole than is widely acknowledged. And they have some serious systemic problems, basically their management is deeply inept. (Worse than ours?!! ).

And Russia is either chasing out or killing their their young generation, doubling down on their already abysmal demographic situation.

[theluckycountry]

I listened to an interesting interview where it was postulated that the one child policy destroyed the natural breeding cycle in China and that it will take like 50 years for them to get back to normal growth. Who knows what's really going on there? It's such a secretive culture, the government could have planned for this just so they don't have millions of starving insurgents in the decades to come as we move back to a sustainable population level.

Opponents to depopulation really haven't looked into the consequences of moving agriculture off it's fossil energy throne. Sri Lankans know all about it, their food production fell through the floor when the government banned fertilizer use, for the logical reason that they couldn't afford them. There are big protests in France today too because the government wants to ban some pesticides.


“There’s no point in farming any more,” said KA Sumanadasa, who grows brinjals (aubergine) on a his quarter of a hectare (0.6-acre) field. Taking out a bag of puny vegetables, many streaked with fungus, the 70-year-old says the switch to organic agriculture has brought down his yield from 400kg (882 pounds) per season to 50kg (110 pounds).
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/1 ... n-planting

Sri Lanka’s organic farming disaster, explained
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022 ... re-farming

The French Protests
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hu ... 023-02-08/


Apologists say the Sri lankans did it too fast, but we all know that no matter how you do it the crop yields without modern fertilization and pesticides will fall dramatically. They increased 7~10 fold so they have to go back that far too, natural Bell curve. And the French action is all obscured by EU Save the planet rhetoric.
"The European Union's executive commission wants to ensure that at least 25% of agricultural land across the 27-nation bloc is reserved for organic farming, compared to 8% in 2020"

Blah Blah, we want healthy food for you they say, but the simple fact is pesticides are made from oil and those in power must realize that they have to get us off them eventually. I say us because they will never want, not this side of second french revolution lol.



Are we reaching Peak population? The first big uptick happened around the time we introduced powered farming methods, the second HUGE uptick in population was around the time pesticides herbicides and super phosphate etc was introduced on a mass scale. Each one increases crop yields markedly but it's the fertilizer that was the real force multiplier.



This is what the U.N. predicts. I never listen to anything they say. They are nothing more than a group of bureaucrats representing a hundred or so dictatorships across the globe. Totally corrupt. Their population chart says it all, they are clueless.

[Newfie]

Here is a better chart.

URL=https://imgbox.com/BXc5kmEp][/URL]

Limits to Growth - Business as Usual Scenario

[vtsnowedin]

Surprising that a country with a population to feed would chose to end fertilizer and pesticide use. For every dollar you spend on fertilizer and pesticides you get three to five dollars back in higher yields. So go without and yields collapse and to avoid having the population starve you have to import food from counties that are still applying fertilizer and pesticides.

[Newfie]

Yup, thats what happened. Imagine that.

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'S')urprising that a country with a population to feed would chose to end fertilizer and pesticide use. For every dollar you spend on fertilizer and pesticides you get three to five dollars back in higher yields. So go without and yields collapse and to avoid having the population starve you have to import food from counties that are still applying fertilizer and pesticides.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'S')urprising that a country with a population to feed would chose to end fertilizer and pesticide use. For every dollar you spend on fertilizer and pesticides you get three to five dollars back in higher yields.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'H')ere is a better chart.

URL=https://imgbox.com/BXc5kmEp][/URL]

Limits to Growth - Business as Usual Scenario

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'S')urprising that a country with a population to feed would chose to end fertilizer and pesticide use. For every dollar you spend on fertilizer and pesticides you get three to five dollars back in higher yields. So go without and yields collapse and to avoid having the population starve you have to import food from counties that are still applying fertilizer and pesticides.

[Newfie]

A 3 part Series. Not very long.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2023 ... th-part-1/

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2023 ... th-part-2/

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2023 ... th-part-3/

[Newfie]

Japan and the population crash

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;Japan is about 10 or 20 years ahead of other countries that are going through this as well, and they're setting the groundwork of what to do and what not to do," said Erin Murphy, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and deputy director of its Economics Program.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'J')apan and the population crash

https://www.newsweek.com/japan-populati ... 6496?amp=1

[jato0072]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here doesn't seem to be any solutions for anything now a days. The power of depletion [decline] I suspect.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato0072', ' ')Despite it being the "information age" no high quality information is available. The increasing noise drowns out retreating signal.