by careinke » Tue 17 Jan 2023, 02:02:51
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')Gold has basically kept up with inflation at todays prices. The S&P, if it just kept up with inflation would be at $588.53. Congrats!
I bought Bitcoin at $400.00 in 2014 with the cumulative inflation rate being 23.6% my BTC would be $494.48. Right now BTC is $19,953.00 and rising. I win!!!
Seems the real loser is the US dollar...
Peace
Get back to us re crypto in a meaningful time frame for investments, like several decades.
Stocks, like the S&P 500, have a total nominal return of about 10 percent compounded annually over the past 90+ years (the index doesn't include dividends), and generally over any 3+ decade timeframe during that. Call it a 6 to 7 percent inflation adjusted compounded annual return. For something so simple and reliable over time, that's MASSIVE. And for those who hate taxes, buying something like a Vanguard S&P 500 index return, it can be VERY tax efficient. For a two-ish percent dividend (close to the long term average) and a moderate tax rate like 25%, that's only about an annual 0.5% ongoing tax payment on the capital to buy and hold it, until it gets sold.
BTC is under a third of where it was at the recent high just 4 months ago. You want a large part of your portfolio in something that volatile and unreliable? You could also "invest" in lottery tickets or going to Vegas.
And yes, clearly sticking fiat in a mattress or a safe deposit box or backyard garden hole is NOT a good investment over any meaningful time-frame. As volatile as it is, at least something like gold will tend to keep up with inflation over the long run, like it has the past several hundred years.
Outcast, I guess I wasn't clear. The S&P stomped a "just keep up with inflation scenario" based on Adams Numbers. Way better than gold.
Still, BTC out performed both in the timeframe I started investing in it. This downturn was expected and welcome. The bottom was reached at 15K and since the start of the year has turned around, this too was expected. 2023, 2024, and 2025 will all be up years, based on the Halving coming in 2024. This is the fourth Halving and so far it is following the script. We will see.