[AdamB]

RIP Colin. You taught those who have worked on solving peak oil far more about how not to do it than how to solve it, but you were a true believer and enthusiast, and your work began the modern era with your 1990 global peak oil call. May you draw bell shaped curves on Saint Peters forehead in order to prove your worthiness to get in to talk up those curves with King Hubbert himself.

RIP Colin Campbell, November 13, 2022

[Plantagenet]

I always thought the term "peak oil" came from Hubbert, but according to the retrospective article in the link below the term "peak oil" was coined and popularized by Dr. Colin Campbell.

Peak Oil: Failed prediction or useful insight

Campbell himself was the chief geologist at BP and his actual job at BP was to predict the future of global oil production. In the late 90s Campbell predicted peak oil would occur ca. 2005-2007 at a rate of about 85 million barrels per day.

Colin Campbell then founded and served as the President of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil.

With the clarity of hindsight we can now say with certainty that Dr. Colin Campbell's prediction of ca. 2005 for the date of peak oil was premature.

Global oil production has continued to increase in most years since 2005, and the latest IEA prediction is that global oil production will grow another 1% to a new all time high in 2023 at just above 100 million barrels per day.....

As Yogi Berra once said, "Its tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

And Winston Churchill was in agreement with Yogi Berra when he said, "The future is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma."

Nonetheless, in spite of the difficulties, a few brave people still try to predict the future.

And Dr. Colin Campbell was one of those people.


Dr. Colin Campbell, RiP.

[jato0072]

I think the ability to model the future accurately is a great gift of human intelligence. The peak oil theory is well proven around the world on a regional basis.

For all of the predictions from the 1970s that were wrong:

Flying cars
Moon bases
Men landing on Mars
Hypersonic commercial transport (not even the Concorde survived)
Ending of wars
Ending of hunger
...you get the idea.

We are running the real world LTG experiment now. I think the LTG predictions of 50 years ago will be more correct then not.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'I') always thought the term "peak oil" came from Hubbert, but according to the retrospective article in the link below the term "peak oil" was coined and popularized by Dr. Colin Campbell.

Peak Oil: Failed prediction or useful insight

[Newfie]

Sometimes the l9ng trend is easier to predict than the shorter term fluctuations.

Fracking, like the Grden Revolution, threw off various predictions but did not make the premise itself wrong, just the timing.

Tink about the oft cited phrase something like "human ingenuity and flexibility will find a way, it always does". This too is a prediction, based on past performance, by the lucky survivors.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'S')ometimes the l9ng trend is easier to predict than the shorter term fluctuations.

Fracking, like the Grden Revolution, threw off various predictions but did not make the premise itself wrong, just the timing.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato0072', '
')We are running the real world LTG experiment now. I think the LTG predictions of 50 years ago will be more correct then not.

[FamousDrScanlon]

Like many guys, Colin waited until retirement and/or not working for money, to be his most candid. I've seen it often from people working in many fields, Seeing/hearing it a lot from climate scientists & others who study the condition of the biosphere. None of it's good unless you're a sadist.

I did not see Colin's birthday in the obit, but found it elsewhere.
He made it to 91 years of age.

Colin's detractors should get all their cheap shots in while they can because after peak oil is in the rear view mirror for a decade, Colin will be remembered as that guy who's peak oil prediction was only off by 12 years.

Colin Campbell (geologist)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colin_Campbell_(geologist)


Peak Oil is Here! World oil production peaked in 2018
Posted on February 1, 2022 by energyskeptic

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')reface. Peak oil is here! Well, OK, we need to officially wait 5 years. But it’s been true for four years, as you can see from the U.S. Energy Information Administration in late 2018 (EIA 2022). It is also likely because unconventional shale oil was responsible for over 90% of the increased production above the 2008 plateau with a little help from Canadian tar sands. Seven of the eight U.S. shale basins are past peak, with only the Permian producing the majority of fracked oil.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FamousDrScanlon', 'L')ike many guys, Colin waited until retirement and/or not working for money, to be his most candid. I've seen it often from people working in many fields, Seeing/hearing it a lot from climate scientists & others who study the condition of the biosphere. None of it's good unless you're a sadist.

[FamousDrScanlon]

Here's a secret - predictions are just more gossip that neither prove nor disprove anything. Beyond meaningless, but the humans love em.

How sad that you are clearly threatened & envious of Alice's massive, and much loved and much frequented, peakoil+ library. Is it Alice specifically or any women who dare to claim priestly knowledge of peakoil?

Y'all should try one of Alice's crackwhore cracker recipes.

I've baked & stored a couple of barrels full so I have snacks after climate consequences drive food prices through the roof.

OMG Triscuits are now $26 a box!

Luckily, peakoil.com is a female free unofficial MGTOW hang out. Except for Planty.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FamousDrScanlon', 'H')ere's a secret - predictions are just more gossip that neither prove nor disprove anything. Beyond meaningless, but the humans love em.

[mididoctors]

Late to this o7

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mididoctors', 'L')ate to this o7

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')
With the clarity of hindsight we can now say with certainty that Dr. Colin Campbell's prediction of ca. 2005 for the date of peak oil was premature.

Global oil production has continued to increase in most years since 2005, and the latest IEA prediction is that global oil production will grow another 1% to a new all time high in 2023 at just above 100 million barrels per day.....

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')Well back in Campbell's day he never would have dreamed that people would be stupid enough to drill into oil source rocks and pump millions of tons of sand and chemicals into the ground just to make a fast buck.