by vtsnowedin » Fri 07 Oct 2022, 13:02:00
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'I') would not be surprised if that 50 years from now the Ukraine War marks the downturn.c the beginning of the “Big Slide” or what ever it will be called.
Globalization has always relied upon mutual trust to underpin the financial trades. This war is disrupting that international system. I can imagine some future historian writing something like:
“In 2022 the world was still attempting to recover from Covid trade disruptions, delayed by Chinas Zero Covid policy when the Ukraine War erupted, which further disrupted normal trade relationships. Countries started to scramble to assure access to necessary imports be they food, energy or minerals. This set up increased international competition for increasingly unreliable existential resources. Lurking under the daily news was the forth coming demographic collapse, which would only make restoration of the old paradigm more difficult. Some were still hopeful a resurgence of nuclear power would calm the waters, and valiant efforts would be made, but it would prove to be too little too late.”
My outlook is less negative.
A USA led recession might deteriorate world trade down to a cash on delivery basis but the underlying benefits of trade will always be there. You can't grow coffee or oranges in Vermont and Brazil can't grow maple syrup. etc.
Sure some restructuring of world economies is needed but they can be restructured and most probably will be.