by vtsnowedin » Sun 06 Feb 2022, 13:14:09
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ' ')Nonsense and your graph proves it.
You said
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he $3.40 national average gas we are buying today was refined from oil costing about $70 per barrel as there is a lead time between entry to the refinery and delivery at your local gas pump.
The graph shows retail price moves with the futures market, todays unleaded reflects today's oil price, $90, not yesterdays or 3 months ago, today's.
You said this:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')ump price has nothing to do with when oil was refined or even what the distributor charges—except that retail is always more.
by Pops » Sun 06 Feb 2022, 14:01:23
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')peak oil #6
I realise that the only thing you have to contribute. I guess it makes you feel better.
I expect there will be another "liquids" maximum this year or next, '24 at most. But the plateau in conventional is what matters. Fracking was profitable last year because the Queen was on vacation and the Permian plastic precursor was in good demand, prior to that she was just turning tricks for OPM. This year she'll be back at it except she's up to 4 or 5 mile laterals now. The whole LTO bit was a free throw to prepare for peak, I used it to make some cash.
I'm not really affected by oil price directly all that much. I haven't commuted in ...about 28 years. I couldn't tell you what the local gasoline price is, I filled up the pickup 3 or 4 months ago and the car maybe 2 months ago. But I live in a small town and am dependent on its meagre infrastructure, and it's frankly not all that resilient. Our town utility burned it's cash surplus in the nat gas market gouge during last year's big freeze. They raised the electric rate sufficient to repay the $5M bill over 5 years. The problem is problems multiply, there are only so many turns at the well before things get ugly.
But it isn't just my little town, general conditions are about the same. I have hope for a miraculous transition but there are problems all over.
The world is in debt to the tune of 256% of income. Just look around, if you actually believe the situation is peachy there isn't much evidence I can give to change that belief.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-
Pops
- Elite
-
- Posts: 19746
- Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
- Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac
-
by Pops » Sun 06 Feb 2022, 14:23:02
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ' ')Your graph shows that retail sometimes has to chase price changes
The graph is retail gas price vs front month
futures— either you accept that as evidence that gas tracks futures on the way up and eventually on the way down or not.
Most oil is sold on contracts negotiated —hedged— months in advance. Oil going into the refinery today may have been contracted last year —at who knows what price.
What that chart tell you is $3.5-$4 unleaded correlates with $100
futures price.
But whatever
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-
Pops
- Elite
-
- Posts: 19746
- Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
- Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac
-
by vtsnowedin » Sun 06 Feb 2022, 15:08:15
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ' ')Your graph shows that retail sometimes has to chase price changes
The graph is retail gas price vs front month
futures— either you accept that as evidence that gas tracks futures on the way up and eventually on the way down or not.
Most oil is sold on contracts negotiated —hedged— months in advance. Oil going into the refinery today may have been contracted last year —at who knows what price.
What that chart tell you is $3.5-$4 unleaded correlates with $100
futures price.
But whatever
Futures price is the one that is publicly known and traded on so it is "the price".
While say Exxon does not have to charge itself anything for oil coming from it's own fields going to it's own refinery it could also have sold it elsewhere for the going price
so has to keep that in it's accounting. Same for airlines that have hedged their bets with long term contracts. Long term those will all wash out to the average as no producer would sign a contract assured to cost them money.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat that chart tell you is $3.5-$4 unleaded correlates with $100
futures price.
I have said that repeatedly. You are just quibbling about the word futures.
by AdamB » Sun 06 Feb 2022, 15:37:36
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')peak oil #6
I realise that the only thing you have to contribute. I guess it makes you feel better.
Making sure that any peak oil claim is kept in the proper context is more like it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')I expect there will be another "liquids" maximum this year or next, '24 at most. But the plateau in conventional is what matters.
Well, the only thing not conventional at this point within the oil and gas development world would be Canadian tar sands, and any US oil shale development (hydrates and GTL beyond that), which have been there forever and no one can make it work economically. And I'll give you that this exception is a HUGE caveat, volumetrically.
As far as the development of continuous formations, that has a long history, and yes, only recently have the geologically uninformed noticed the volumes possible from it. And it was just these resources being developed in time and with the right price that queered up the entire original peak oil claim, I'll give you that. But with another 400+ billion of it floating around internationally (just in what's been quantified when folks began looking), there doesn't seem to be as much a need to focus on the discrete reservoirs as you indicate. The proof being what has happened in the US alone since 2005-2010 of course.
Are you familiar with how resource cost curves work, and how they explain perfectly what happened 2011-2015 with creating the shale "revolution"?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')Fracking was profitable last year because the Queen was on vacation and the Permian plastic precursor was in good demand, prior to that she was just turning tricks for OPM. This year she'll be back at it except she's up to 4 or 5 mile laterals now. The whole LTO bit was a free throw to prepare for peak, I used it to make some cash.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
by AdamB » Sun 06 Feb 2022, 18:49:20
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') The economies of the world will adjust to the then current price levels and volatility and profitability will become a factor of oil efficiency as separate from other energy resources. The product made with more solar and less oil will become cheaper then the alternative.
Pops just mentioned in another thread that the word "economist" was a dirty one, back during the height of the membership in The Church of Peak Oil. He was correct in that statement, and I have found it interesting that after admitting he knows this, he doesn't seek to apply what they knew that so easily dispatched the first mighty 5 claimed peaks of this century.
In exactly the way you just did in words to arrive at a completely reasonable conclusion encompassing all 3 specialties involved, including the economic. I gave him a hint as well, asking if he was familiar with resource cost curves, because they put into math and graphics exactly what you just did in words.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
-
AdamB
- Volunteer
-
- Posts: 11018
- Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
-
by vtsnowedin » Mon 07 Feb 2022, 20:20:49
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') The economies of the world will adjust to the then current price levels and volatility and profitability will become a factor of oil efficiency as separate from other energy resources. The product made with more solar and less oil will become cheaper then the alternative.
Pops just mentioned in another thread that the word "economist" was a dirty one, back during the height of the membership in The Church of Peak Oil. He was correct in that statement, and I have found it interesting that after admitting he knows this, he doesn't seek to apply what they knew that so easily dispatched the first mighty 5 claimed peaks of this century.
In exactly the way you just did in words to arrive at a completely reasonable conclusion encompassing all 3 specialties involved, including the economic. I gave him a hint as well, asking if he was familiar with resource cost curves, because they put into math and graphics exactly what you just did in words.
Note that I said the "economies of the world" not economist which are a bunch of over educated fools that make pronouncements about the economy that are very seldom correct.
The economies of the world are driven by the millions of people struggling to get by and constantly adapting to overcome whatever adversity has befallen them. The constant trial and error by so many participants eventually finds the best solution.
by AdamB » Mon 07 Feb 2022, 21:38:28
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') Note that I said the "economies of the world" not economist which are a bunch of over educated fools that make pronouncements about the economy that are very seldom correct.
Economies of the world....economists who can't get stuff right....but the precepts within their social science, as you described in words, are reasonable.
When I began my foray into the world of economists, I was reminiscing with a Harvard PhD...in mathematics....and I asked him what his opinion of economists were, considering the two of us technocrats were working with them now. And his answer to why it was important to listen to their ideas, was "because economists run the world"......which struck me as an answer that I ponodered on for awhile before it really registered. And I had more experience working with them.
Sure...economic forecasting makes astrology look good....but that doesn't mean the basics of their understanding aren't of value to us technocrats.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') The economies of the world are driven by the millions of people struggling to get by and constantly adapting to overcome whatever adversity has befallen them. The constant trial and error by so many participants eventually finds the best solution.
And economics understands the basics of that system better than anything else us clever monkeys have dreamed up....which doesn't make it perfect....but does make understanding those basics useful.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
by AdamB » Tue 08 Feb 2022, 09:57:38
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')I hope you guys understand what’s coming.
Of course. We don't listen to Alex Jones as a source of information, which puts us a mile ahead of the cretin class.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
-
AdamB
- Volunteer
-
- Posts: 11018
- Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
-
by Armageddon » Tue 08 Feb 2022, 10:28:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')I hope you guys understand what’s coming.
Of course. We don't listen to Alex Jones as a source of information, which puts us a mile ahead of the cretin class.
Great deflection. Very typical of you
by AdamB » Tue 08 Feb 2022, 11:23:14
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')I hope you guys understand what’s coming.
Of course. We don't listen to Alex Jones as a source of information, which puts us a mile ahead of the cretin class.
Great deflection. Very typical of you
What deflection? The first was a fact, the second a conclusion. Did you even graduate high school?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
by Armageddon » Tue 08 Feb 2022, 12:05:51
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')I hope you guys understand what’s coming.
Of course. We don't listen to Alex Jones as a source of information, which puts us a mile ahead of the cretin class.
Great deflection. Very typical of you
What deflection? The first was a fact, the second a conclusion. Did you even graduate high school?
by AdamB » Tue 08 Feb 2022, 12:25:04
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')What deflection? The first was a fact, the second a conclusion. Did you even graduate high school?
You didn’t address any of the facts I posted. .
If you did post a fact, if you knew what a fact was, you would know they don't need addressed, ..they just are.
An example, it is a fact that you have claimed Alex Jones is a great source of information. The debt of the United States is a fact....I do not know if you recited it correctly, but it is a fact, even if you can't necessarily be counted on to find it with a flashlight and a map.
The problem is, you might on occasion mention a fact, upon which you stack a skyscraper of supposition, conjecture, and outright lies. Hence the problem having any kind of a discussion with you, when you don't know that the initial fact does not validate the rest of the crap you pile on top of it. It is a theory perhaps you didn't graduate high school, based on your inability to understand basic concepts, theories, history and...oftentimes...the definitions of words.
Plus the fact that you find Alex Jones a source of information is itself a clue as to overall ignorance discerning the difference between facts and all the other things you and he prefer to discuss.
Sorry if this isn't clear to you, perhaps your loaded father in law can help you out, sounding out the words and concepts I've just outlined?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')You made an assumption because I posted something about Alex Jones 15 years ago and stated it as a fact as if it’s relevant today.
I did state it as a fact, as it is, and the quote is available. I don't know if it is relevant today, you have gone dark on using him as a source.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', ' ')
That how you operate. You are a troll and everybody knows it.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
