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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.
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Update of the beloved diagram

Unread postby Baduila » Wed 17 Jun 2020, 16:28:51

Image

The oil price is still too low for SA and OPEC+. They are forced to continue the reductions.
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby BahamasEd » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 12:26:06

The problem is we can no longer afford to pay for the extraction of fossil fuels, oil, coal and natural gas along with the refining and transport to the end user.

It really is that simple, the end user doesn't have the money so they are putting it on the credit card (debt in general) and making the smallest payment until they will default of it.

That's how I'm looking at all that's happening far this year, it's really about our need to get by with less energy.
The total energy cost of producing and delivering a gallon of gasoline to the end consumer must be less than the energy in a gallon of gasoline for it to be commercially viable.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 15:20:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BahamasEd', 'T')he problem is we can no longer afford to pay for the extraction of fossil fuels, oil, coal and natural gas along with the refining and transport to the end user.

Spouting the same nonsense endlessly makes it NO MORE true.

The "problem" re the current oil price being lower than before is CLEARLY one of reduced demand, to anyone with a brain and a clue about how economics works.

If we get a good answer to COVID-19 and the global economy is able to spin up to 90% or so of its former level, including things like air transport demand, then the price of oil will tend to return to normalcy, over time. Just like with the great recession, and many previous cycles.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby marmico » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 17:07:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he problem is we can no longer afford to pay for the extraction of fossil fuels, oil, coal and natural gas along with the refining and transport to the end user.


BS.

Joe Sixpack purchased 9 gallons of gasoline per hour worked in 2019. More affordable than in the 2004-2016 period. Adjusted for the increase in fleet passenger vehicle fuel economy, 2019 gasoline was roughly as affordable as it was in the 1990-2004 period.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 18:05:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BahamasEd', 'T')he problem is we can no longer afford to pay for the extraction of fossil fuels, oil, coal and natural gas along with the refining and transport to the end user.

Spouting the same nonsense endlessly makes it NO MORE true.


Worse yet, anyone can stand at a corner convenience store and watch folks come in and prove it to themselves as nonsense in 5 minutes. Here they come...buy some fuel...there they go.

How divorced from reality can a peak oiler get? Apparently, completely. Some thing never change.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby marmico » Tue 30 Jun 2020, 10:53:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orse yet, anyone can stand at a corner convenience store and watch folks come in and prove it to themselves as nonsense in 5 minutes. Here they come...buy some fuel...there they go.


Worse yet. One can go to the EIA data set and say that the rolling 5 year period ending in 2019 for US total energy spending relative to GDP is the lowest ever.

Image

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/mo ... ec1_19.pdf
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Re: Update of the beloved diagram

Unread postby tita » Fri 03 Jul 2020, 06:59:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '[')img]https://assets.wallstreet-online.de/_media/1591/board/20200617191953-price-prod-proj-2006-en.png[/img]

The oil price is still too low for SA and OPEC+. They are forced to continue the reductions.


WTF is this line you call MAP_Price? I see a price of $60 in the end of 2020.

I thought the MAP_Price was something around $19 at this date. Now the ETP crowd just change the data to fit their fucked-up theory to the reality??

You should be ashamed to put bullshit TA finance analysis as anything near to prove your point.
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Re: Update of the beloved diagram

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 03 Jul 2020, 11:29:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', '
')I thought the MAP_Price was something around $19 at this date. Now the ETP crowd just change the data to fit their fucked-up theory to the reality??
You should be ashamed to put bullshit TA finance analysis as anything near to prove your point.


For the record, anyone remember when was the map price was supposed to hit $0 back when ETP was first being flogged here? That was at least two maybe three years ago when ETP was a "thing" and I could have sworn the doomsday 0 date was only 2-3 years off so it has to be around now.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Update of the beloved diagram

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 03 Jul 2020, 12:42:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', '
')I thought the MAP_Price was something around $19 at this date. Now the ETP crowd just change the data to fit their fucked-up theory to the reality??
You should be ashamed to put bullshit TA finance analysis as anything near to prove your point.


For the record, anyone remember when was the map price was supposed to hit $0 back when ETP was first being flogged here? That was at least two maybe three years ago when ETP was a "thing" and I could have sworn the doomsday 0 date was only 2-3 years off so it has to be around now.


This is the first ETP image I could find.
Image

That puts the end of industrial civilization in early 2016.

And here is the one that shows oil prices going negative.
Image

Which means oil is free right now, isn't that wonderful?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Update of the beloved diagram

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 05 Jul 2020, 11:44:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '[')img]https://assets.wallstreet-online.de/_media/1591/board/20200617191953-price-prod-proj-2006-en.png[/img]

The oil price is still too low for SA and OPEC+. They are forced to continue the reductions.


WTF is this line you call MAP_Price? I see a price of $60 in the end of 2020.

I thought the MAP_Price was something around $19 at this date. Now the ETP crowd just change the data to fit their fucked-up theory to the reality??

You should be ashamed to put bullshit TA finance analysis as anything near to prove your point.

+1

Blatant BS indeed. You are about right re the projected ETP $19ish WTI price as of midyear, tita.

I kept the PDF for Shorty's "paper" he "published" through the (now defunct, re the site) "Hills Group" dated March 1, 2015, called version 2 for times I wanted to counter this sort of nonsense by ETP pundits and blatant history revisionists.

The price curve we (including shorty) commonly referred to was the pink (light magenta) 38% curve (it wasn't even a line) on page 34 in the "Theoretical Max Price per Year" chart. Eyeballing that curve on the chart, the prices are $27 for the end of 2019, $13 for the end of 2020, and close to ZERO at the end of 2021, for WTI.

Even with a bad economy and a threatened global depression from COVID-19, WTI has recoverd to about $40, and has averaged well above $35 since the beginning of June, reflecting much lower demand due to reduced travel from the virus -- now and anticipated.

Show of hands for how many think that would imply a price below $15 at yer-end due to the economy collapsing completely if there were no COVID-19 at all. :roll:

(And shorty can't predict ANYTHING, so he sure couldn't predict COVID-19 over 5 years ago, before the history revisionists try that). Oh, and along that line, his projected WTI price, based on the exponential curve he had drawn, extending a curve fitting from 1960, has WTI at about $200 at the end of 2020. :lol: (Presumably, this line predicted the WTI price if supply / demand continues normally in a non-collapsed economy).

1). So if COVID-19 collapses the global economy completely in several years (due to all bad news and no way to get any herd immunity, which looks like a long shot, per the experts and vaccine expectations), shorty is dead wrong because it has NOTHING to do with what he projected re crude oil crushing the global economy due to being "unaffordable" to produce. He'd also be years late.

2). If it weren't for COVID-19, WTI would be humming along between perhaps $50 and $100, and the US and global economy would be doing at least OK, given how well the economy is doing overall, even WITH COVID-19, and how (despite the usual false doomer claims) it was doing just fine when COVID-19 struck, re the markets, GDP, travel, etc.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Tue 14 Jul 2020, 13:58:57

Two extrapolations based on physics in one diagram.

Image

If you want to understand the thermodynamics, read this:
https://limitstogrowth.de/wp-content/up ... _EN_09.pdf
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Tue 14 Jul 2020, 14:11:57

This link should work:

https://limitstogrowth.de/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Mar_2020_Thermo_EN_09.pdf
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 14 Jul 2020, 18:29:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'T')wo extrapolations based on physics in one diagram.


So the real question is, how does a Short sock puppet explain why the original work needed to be altered? Other than the obvious of course, Short having been wrong on so many things for so long that he just couldn't handle losing another bet, or having the riotous laughter follow him everywhere he goes on this site?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 14 Jul 2020, 18:32:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'T')his link should work:

https://limitstogrowth.de/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Mar_2020_Thermo_EN_09.pdf


From ASPO? Are you serious? The same organization that dissolved in embarrassment years ago is now pretending it knows something about thermodynamics? Any chance you've got a better reference laying around, one from Matt Savinar on quantum superposition perhaps?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Thu 13 Aug 2020, 05:09:16

Image

Real price and real production both follow the projections. The oil production in the US has fallen by 3000000 bbl/d, most of the reduction is LTO. Because LTO production is heavily energy consuming, the demand for oil has decreased nearly by the same amount.
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 14 Aug 2020, 18:17:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')
Real price and real production both follow the projections. The oil production in the US has fallen by 3000000 bbl/d, most of the reduction is LTO. Because LTO production is heavily energy consuming, the demand for oil has decreased nearly by the same amount.


Yup....looks better than the last one claiming the price of oil would hit $0/bbl....what was that, a year or more back now?

How many changes in projections are allowed before, you know, it is okay to post riotous laughter giffs?

Shorty too embarrassed from all the old calls to come out and play?

Image
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 14 Aug 2020, 21:26:15

This dead horse has been beaten so much by now I'm surprised anyone still cares, even if it's just to mock Short.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 15 Aug 2020, 16:35:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '[')img]https://assets.wallstreet-online.de/_media/1591/board/20200813103610-preis-prod-200813.png[/img]

Real price and real production both follow the projections. The oil production in the US has fallen by 3000000 bbl/d, most of the reduction is LTO. Because LTO production is heavily energy consuming, the demand for oil has decreased nearly by the same amount.

What a moron. Seriously.

Hint: $2 WTI 2021 year end projection re the WTI clown is NOT REMOTELY like the $23ish line you're projecting.

But of course, for all the ETP theory advocates, math doesn't matter, regardless of their empty claims. :roll:

How much nonsense is your ilk allowed to spew before you stop being taken seriously? You passed my threshold at least a year ago. I just respond to point out the obvious for newer folks.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 16 Aug 2020, 10:33:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', 'T')his dead horse has been beaten so much by now I'm surprised anyone still cares, even if it's just to mock Short.


Were you watching when the switch-a-roo happened to change the claim from $0/bbl a few years back to a different answer now happened? Or did Shorty and Co. just "pull a Trump" as it were, and gaslight the thing into existence one afternoon while ignoring the need to explain?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 16 Aug 2020, 13:56:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', 'T')his dead horse has been beaten so much by now I'm surprised anyone still cares, even if it's just to mock Short.


Were you watching when the switch-a-roo happened to change the claim from $0/bbl a few years back to a different answer now happened? Or did Shorty and Co. just "pull a Trump" as it were, and gaslight the thing into existence one afternoon while ignoring the need to explain?


I've lost track of exactly when oil is "supposed" to be $0. If it's now or it's two years from now there's a snowball's chance in hell that prediction will pan out.

Likewise, Short long ago changed his talking points over to financial manipulations so he himself no longer expects to see prices meet up with his chart. He'll still claim ETP is to blame for what we're seeing regardless of the price, though.

I've just reached a point of exhaustion with the whole topic and it all seems rather insignificant right now compared to COVID and the election.

We all know Short will never openly capitulate to having been wrong. I've posted a link to an article that explains why it is some people can't do this and why it's a sign of insecurity. At some point you have to give up expecting someone to demonstrate personal growth or maturity and hope that those around him see him for who he really is.

You also have to understand that every discredited theory always seems to maintain a small group of adherents. You know, flat-earth types. As long as Short has an audience of literally just a few who remain sympathetic he'll probably be motivated to keep preaching. So it's too much to ask for complete closure and ETP to completely go silent. I mean, I'm sure out of the billions of people on this earth at least a few liked Freddie Got Fingered. It doesn't really say much about whether something is a 'thing' or not.

There was a time when ETP had successfully hijacked this site but that's over.
Last edited by asg70 on Sun 16 Aug 2020, 14:01:46, edited 1 time in total.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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