[fossil_fuel]

i just bought a nightstar shakelight with the improved LED. For $30 I got the real thing, not one of the cheap knockoffs. Charges very quickly and easily with a quick bit of shaking. light is moderately bright, certainly something you can find things in a dark house with safely but i wouldn't try hiking in the woods with it. Part of the problem is that the beam is too diffuse, i wish i could adjust the lens distance and therefore the beam concentration like I can on my maglights. Other than that it's great though. a good investment for $30.

[pea-jay]

I personally talked with the Cal-ISO operator (which if you don't know, they are the grid operators for the 70% of California). They are concerned about the power situation starting as soon as this summer. Here is the scoop:

The 70% of California controlled by the ISO essentially functions as two sections, PG&E, SMUD and a few minor irrigation districts in the north and SCE and SDG&E in the south. It must be stressed that LA is not part of the ISO, nor are they really tied to ISO grid, so CA south projects DO NOT apply to the City of LA proper.

In anycase, NorCal is okay for electricity until 2009, where operating reserves may be eclipsed by demand during a real strong heat wave. If the weather is normal, there won't be problems.

The real action is in SoCal, where the grid is ALREADY over burdened. Here is what's up. THis year, come late august or early september, if the entire state suffers what meteorologists call the 1 in 10 heat storm (which is essentially a heat wave you would expect to see every ten years or so), the SoCal section of the grid WILL be 2% SHORT on electricty. Add to the fact the utilities actually require a 3% operating surplus for safety's sake, you can see we will come up short. 5% is a lot of electricity, but it is fairly easy to shed. If that 1:10 event materializes, expect to see industries and other large users to be cut off, stores to dim the lights and a mass advertising campaign to conserve. If that doesn't work, the state shuts off the water pumps that ship water to LA (called dropping the pump load) and if that isn't enough, then you will see rolling blackouts from Tulare County down to the Mexican border. That's alot of ifs here. I personally dont think it will materialize.

2005 is the good year. It gets worse from here on out. 2006, the operating shortfall increases close to double digits, which means GUARENTEED Blackouts in a mildly hot summer. 2007 and 2008, if the ISO numbers are accurate, rolling blackouts will be a daily occurance for most of the summer months, regardless of the weather. 2009's prediction is ridiculous. It shows us well over 7% short with average weather.


I'd love to get some of the specific numbers, but my numbers are offline on paper at work. So scroll down to page 16 of the linked pdf to see a graphic representation of the predicament

http://energy.ca.gov/electricity/2005_s ... TATION.PDF

Now, talking with staff at the ISO and reading materials from the CEC, the dire assumptions partially originates as part of assumed retirements of existing gas fired generation units (older, inefficient models). There are no new plants of any significance anticipated for startup in the near future. Generation units are significant projects so the ISO can predict when the next unit will open with some accuracy. The retirements are alot harder to anticipate. Take out all of the socal retirements and suddenly the dire nature of the forecast disappears. If no plants close after this year and no new ones open, the 1:10 shortfall only becomes an issue from 2007 or so.

The ISO/energy commission has been caught flat-footed before back in 2001, when they produced a dire forecast that never materialized.

But here is the other factor: a significant number of CA plants are gas fired and any new one that would go online would likewise be gas fired. I asked that question of dependance on gas reliance in the face of increasingly scarce supplies to one of the state officials. He rather bluntly told me "I do not know." CA enviro laws make it too difficult to permit a coal plant and even if we could permit coal plants, the state has virtually no coal supplies. As it is clear to anyone who studies renewables, none currently could ramp up to meet the naturalgas component.

So they do not model or plan for any changes in gas supplies. As far as the energy commission is concerned, gas for power plants will continue to flow, with the real problem lying with the construction of plants.

So there you have it, you Southern Californians could see problems this year but in all liklihood won't until 2007. Now if continental gas production goes off the predicted cliff and LNG fails to come online in time or sufficient quantities all bets are off.

We are skating on a knifes edge right now. It wouldnt take much to cause a crisis.

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea jay', 'a')nd a mass advertising campaign to conserve.

[I_Like_Plants]

I like the "flex your power" commercial where the one guy in the office thinks it's an order to party-out and the one guy dances on his desk.....

In SoCal, people got pretty good at driving through intersections with the signal lights out, practice makes perfect!

[Yavicleus]

First, look at how hot it's going to be over the next two days in the US South East:

Tuesday


Wednesday


To put it in perspective, it's usually in the upper 80's to lower 90's here in South East Virginia where I am.

With these kinds of record temps, I wouldn't be surprised if the US southeast experiences massive blackouts this Tuesday or Wednesday from the extreme AC usage that's going to occur.

[Pablo2079]

It'll be interesting to see what happens..... has the SE suffered blackouts due to demand before? I know California has as well as the NE.

[crude_intentions]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith these kinds of record temps, I wouldn't be surprised if the US southeast experiences massive blackouts this Tuesday or Wednesday from the extreme AC usage that's going to occur.

[Tyler_JC]

And those numbers don't account for humidity.

100 degrees in Atlanta feels a lot hotter than 100 degrees in Phoenix.

[KiddieKorral]

They say the heat index (what it feels like outside) is going up to 115 in some areas. It's due to go up to 110 here.

[gnm]

Actually Phoenix is pretty humid thanks to all the artifical lakes and such so it is pretty oppressive there. You ought to try 120F and 70% humidity (I have actually experienced that in Phoenix!) YUCK. I feel sorry for those folks having to deal with 100+ and high humidity! It has been over 100 here a lot lately but the humidity is like 10%. With my solar powered swamp cooler we are chillin at 67F in the house!

-G

[shortonoil]

.

I’ve been expecting something like a melt down to occur here in the Northern Neck of VA for the last couple of years. There has been an explosion of construction here along the Chesapeake Bay as Washington bureaucrats and military top brass have been coming here in droves to retire. Of course, speculators are also expanding developments any place that they can find a place close to the water to put up a few houses. There is absolutely no consideration given to the carrying capacity of the region in terms of water, sewage, roads or electrical capacity. The new inhabits pretty much view themselves as an elite class and are almost 100% environmentally ignorant. The homes built here are the most energy gluttonous monstrosities that any imagination could conceive. The electrical system here is an old delta Y system that was installed about the time Al Copone was getting a foot hold in Chicago. I expect some afternoon to see the power lines turn white and hear the distance bang of overloaded transformers exploding. Then I’ll start talking to people around here about PO. Until something like a melt down occurs, no force on earth is going to get the idea across to them that the earth is not a play ground of unlimited resources to be degraded especially for their personal amusement.


.

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'A')ctually Phoenix is pretty humid thanks to all the artifical lakes and such so it is pretty oppressive there. You ought to try 120F and 70% humidity (I have actually experienced that in Phoenix!) YUCK. I feel sorry for those folks having to deal with 100+ and high humidity! It has been over 100 here a lot lately but the humidity is like 10%. With my solar powered swamp cooler we are chillin at 67F in the house!

-G

[Yavicleus]

Yeah, I live in Williamsburg, Virginia, which is halfway down a penninsula between two rivers, and we're surrounded by tidewater estuaries (read: swamps). I commute daily from the middle of this penninsula down to the tip where I work at Hampton University, which is a little cooler thanks to the water.

But the humidity here is brutal.

The campus of the university that I work on is also prone to blackouts due to bad weather, so we're all expecting blackouts tomorrow due to demand. Interestingly enough, the university gets most of its power from a fuel oil generator that we have here. From my window I regularly spot the fuel trucks that come to replenish the tanks.

Not to mention that many of the AC units we have here are pretty weak, and the insulation is pathetic. Most of our buildings here are pretty old and haven't been updated with better insulation.

It's going to be a fun week.

edit: looks like DC's power system is already strained from storm damage this week.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... v=hcmodule

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he number of customers without power reached a peak of 55,000 of Pepco's 725,000 customers and was reduced to about 17,000 by the end of Saturday.

[SD_Scott]

I lived in Phoenix for 5 years and I agree. I couldn't live without the A/C. From late April to late September it can be miserable. It's hell on a car too. Batteries last a year or so. Tires tend to fail more often. Mileage blows because you have to run the A/C. CV boots get crispy and breaK open and leak all the grease out. Etc. etc. etc. At least I could breathe, which is more than I can say for Houston.

[Frontierenergy1]

If they have problems theylll probably start doing rolling blackouts when one area loses power for a while and then another. Pretty common solution in the Southeast during peak cooling loads.

Brownouts are possible too where they start dropping voltage- however this can provide problems like burning up A/C compressors or other inductive loads. Make sure your are on UPS system- brownouts are kind of hard on disk drive motors and such.

[shortonoil]

.

Williamsburg, you're about 45 minutes from me east on 64.

I find it hard to believe that Hampton College runs on a diesel generator. That is the most inefficient way of generating power, outside of two gerbil on a tread mill, possible. These older homes around this area, like Reedville and Irvington, which are the ultimate of Yuppie worlds, are selling for astronomical prices and many of them aren’t even insulated. They just have a bigger heat pump installed if they aren’t comfortable.

The next couple of days could be enlighting!
. And sweaty.

.

[mgibbons19]

Southern Indiana here. 97.6F right now. And swampy. Dennis came here to die 2 weeks ago and left the humidity so high, it was like living underwater.

[Yavicleus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'W')illiamsburg, you're about 45 minutes from me east on 64.

[BabyPeanut]

http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_2888007
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n Sunday, the ice cream store's phone rang constantly, with callers asking if there would be another ice cream giveaway. During Saturday's two-hour outage, store workers had doled out melting ice cream for free.

[BabyPeanut]

link. my day feels so saved after reading this blog I could just sh!t