by Outcast_Searcher » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 22:24:15
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', '1') false positive and 9 true positives. I'll go with the odds.
Actually, this seems like a really strong signal for a recession, given the history. I'm surprised when I read various economists talking like there's a 30% chance or 50-50 chance of recession in the face of this, but then again, I have no degree in economics. (Just some basic college courses, and some informal reading).
And it's certainly about time. Let's clear out some of the over-enthusiasm for stocks and over-priced debt (given the risk).
I'm just not going with the idea that a recession means doom because "we have lots of debt and I'm skeered" re the perma-doomers, who stay shrill and confident despite their deplorable track record.
You, OTOH, have a great track record and don't, in my recollection, make unreasonable claims and projections, so by all means -- as meaningful signals come in, please update us when you feel like doing so.
(One vote, FWIW).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.