[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'H')ow about the diesel shortage? Distillates in storage are at the bottom of their range in the US also. Are we headed for trouble? Here's an article about how diesel shortages are the "everything pin" which pops the everything bubble. Plausible?

[Pops]

Revi, you and pstarr probably have the most sustainable setups of any still posting here. I'd love to hear what you guys are doing rather than argue over the import of the latest dot-O-doom.

[Revi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'R')evi, you and pstarr probably have the most sustainable setups of any still posting here. I'd love to hear what you guys are doing rather than argue over the import of the latest dot-O-doom.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Oil Rises 18% In Best January On Record

[Cog]

If you have oil stocks or oil service company stocks, you are making some money.

Just saying.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'R')evi, you and pstarr probably have the most sustainable setups of any still posting here. I'd love to hear what you guys are doing rather than argue over the import of the latest dot-O-doom.

[asg70]

How quaint. It's lovely to see this the discussion veer into a good old fashioned bugout strategy.

[Revi]

I think bug in is a good idea around here, and maybe anywhere. Start to figure out people and places that could be useful. I don't think this is a particularly good place to go really. It's poor and cold and rocky, so it's not going to be very wonderful. It's a hard place to live now. Imagine it without much fossil fuel.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I')t's a hard place to live now. Imagine it without much fossil fuel.

[EdwinSm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'N')ot that facts, data, trends, etc. seem to affect the belief system of the "fast crash peakers".

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EdwinSm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'N')ot that facts, data, trends, etc. seem to affect the belief system of the "fast crash peakers".

[Revi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')But we've seen the effects of lower relative availability for decades, on and off. The 70's and the recent spike culminating in 2008 are two good examples. Prices went up. People who couldn't afford to burn so much burned less.

That isn't hard to predict.

As you say, there will be plenty of fuel after the peak (and everything won't peak simultaneously). So the idea that the peak will cause some sort of major social unrest, just doesn't hold much water, IMO. It might well lead to faster adoption to EV's of all kinds, which would be a good thing. Assuming we see peak before, say, 2040 or 50.

[marmico]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat do you think the chances are of us being able to buy half our fuel for our cars when and if the dollar stops being the reserve currency?

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')Here in fossil fuel land we don't see it as much, but in other places the fossil fuel tap turns off. What do you think the chances are of us being able to buy half our fuel for our cars when and if the dollar stops being the reserve currency?

[tita]

"And the IEA and EIA are forecasting energy supplies to be quite good through 2040, or even 2050."

Although I respect deeply the data collected by these agency, I don't have much consideration for their forecasts. They mostly do a statistical work based on past data and their long-term view consist of "things will be stay the same and follow current trends". In 2012, the eia had no clue on the LTO production we have today, their forecast was way lower than it is.

Even on the short term view it is unreliable. Last october, the weekly estimates for US supply were 500kb/d lower than the monthly report.

Just taken from their AEO 2012:


Also, in 2012, world supply in 2018 was forecasted at 94.82 Mb/d (from 89.52 Mb/d), while it is estimated at 99.93 now.

If they can be wrong that way, then they also can be wrong the other way, which happens in their forecasts.

Of course, I don't have more clue than they have. The whole point of the peak oil debate is that nobody is really able to do an accurate forecast. The whole dynamic of the oil industry is extremely complex.

[ROCKMAN]

Edwin – “I suppose what keeps me reading here (but not posting much) is the concern that a peaking in supplies could trigger a very fast moving economic/social crash as people start to panic and over-react”. Which again is why I still drag the ole POD occasionally. We’ve had multiple economic downturns long before today. Lots of explanations for the cause of 60+ million losing their lives as a result of WWII. But many historians point to the POD as a significant factor. The US oil embargo of Japan certain gave its military significant control over its political process.

And as of today we have obviously not gone beyond global PO. Of course, eventually we’ll pass GPO. But at that point the question will be the demand for oil and has it declined. IOW have we adjusted our demand for oil by changing our consumption dynamic by new technology, conservation or some other “magic bullet”? I don’t bother try to make such predictions: much too distant in the future and far too many “what ifs”. But IMHO too many folks anticipate greater global economic problems post-GPO then we’ve seen pre-GPO: I don’t see that as a given. Which doesn’t mean continuous good times in the future. Just means perhaps no worse times then we’ve seen in the past. And some folks have had terrible times in the past. Just as some are experiencing today.

[onlooker]

US. Oil Production Is Headed For A Quick Decline


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/U ... cline.html

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EdwinSm', 'S')o a crash in my mind would be less from a slight contraction in energy supplies, but from people's over-reaction (hoarding, violence etc) to that event. And people's reactions are hard to predict.

[Revi]

I am not as worried about the whole world system crashing. I am a bit concerned about the US. We don't seem to have much of a plan for living with less fossil fuel. We have gigantic cars, electricity use is crazy, and we don't want to consider living like the rest of the world (or even western Europe, where they live just fine). I think we may be brought down to their standard, and it's not going to be fun. Driving around in trucks that get about the same mileage as school busses can't be sustainable. I think we're going to be in trouble with just a little bump in interest rates, or the price of gas in this country. Imagine if there is an actual supply problem.

[Pops]

Revi you have been talking about the likely next problem for a while, pstarr as well.

IEA guesses all liquids will experience "natural decline" of 45mbd thru 2025. With continued investment in existing production we can replace some of that decline ("reserve growth") leaving us short "only" 27.5mbd. Add in 7mbd of demand growth and someone needs to come up with an additional 35mbd of brand new production between '17 & '25.

IEA thinks about 11mbd of that is in development. Then they insert the obligatory "miracle occurs here" function to the equation:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')round 16 billion barrels of new conventional crude oil resources in new projects are approved each year in the New Policies Scenario between 2017 and 2025: these provide around 13 mb/d additional production in 2025.