by kublikhan » Tue 31 Jul 2018, 20:29:46
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('baha', 'T')hey have a long way to go before there is any excess generation.
That's not right. Excess generation happens frequently on the grid. So much so, that grid regulators are paying the generators NOT to generate electricity. Happens a lot during mid day, when solar generation hits it's peak. Then turns into a deficit later in the evening when everyone comes home and turns everything on while solar generation trickles out. It's the so called
duck curve. It's less pronounced in summer when all of that extra solar energy is sucked up by ACs. However excess generation can get quite bad during cooler months. It's at times like that when a large amount of storage would help alleviate the pressure the grid is already experiencing and is only going to get worse in the years ahead.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ast month, the California Independent System Operator quietly announced that it could face a record-breaking need for curtailments -- paying, or forcing, generators to stop pumping electricity into a transmission grid that just doesn’t have the demand for it at the time.
“With the bountiful hydro conditions expected this year and significant additional solar installations both in the form of central station and on rooftops, we expect to see significant excess energy production this coming spring,” CAISO CEO Stephen Berberich wrote in a memo to the grid operator’s board of directors. “Currently, the forecast is that we could have the need to curtail from 6,000 [megawatts] to 8,000 [megawatts].”
All of this solar has led to what CAISO calls the “duck curve” -- a deep dip in demand during solar-saturated midday hours, followed by a steep ramp as solar fades away.

Curtailment is generally the last step in a long process governed by CAISO, as manager of a commodity market that has to be kept in perfect balance at all times. First of all, when supply of power of any kind exceeds demand, prices drop, and generators can reduce output in response, if they have the flexibility and economic incentives to do so. Of course, most of CAISO’s oversupply is coming from generation resources that lack that flexibility, which has led to an increasing incidence of negative pricing.
CAISO’s next step is to offer generators the opportunity to make money by reducing their power output, he said. “Once we go into an excess or oversupply condition, our market first goes out and sends signals to the generators that say, ‘How much would you take, bid in as a price, to reduce or quit producing?’” That’s called a "decremental" bid, as opposed to an incremental bid that pays generators to increase production, and through it, “The market solves that oversupply almost in every instance.”
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he end of California's drought is exposing the full effect of the state's move to renewable energy. A wet winter has loaded up the hydroelectric system, while solar generation rose by 33 percent in the past year. These increases, combined with the usual spring winds, are pushing gas off the grid, cutting imports, and reducing carbon emissions at an unprecedented level. As California's independent system operator said: “The growth in these preferred resources is nothing short of phenomenal.” But that "phenomenal" growth is also setting new records for negative prices and curtailment of renewables, primarily utility-scale solar plants. CAISO predicts 6,000 megawatts to 8,000 megawatts of curtailment this year.
“It’s an interesting growing pain of our increasingly green grid,” said Shannon Eddy of the Large-Scale Solar Association. “We’re curtailing the cleanest and newest resource on the grid, and leaving alone the 2,000+ megawatts of mostly fossil imports and in-state gas.”
And the growing pains will likely continue. The latest U.S. Solar Market Insight report from GTM and SEIA counts solar projects in the works that will double California’s capacity from 17 gigawatts in 2016 to 34.5 gigawatts by 2022. With springtime power demand peaking at well under 30 gigawatts, we may see a very solar future. Or a train wreck.
Spring shoulder months are especially concerning. With demand low due to cool temperatures, supply is already high from copious wind, water and sun. As shown in the first interactive figure below, thermal (namely gas) and imports were shoved out of the way by a huge burst of solar power, but came back to cover the evening ramp and peak. Unfortunately, March 26 also saw lots of curtailment of utility-scale solar plants -- about 6,500 megawatt-hours or 8.5 percent of their output for the day. Two-thirds of the cuts were to mitigate local congestion, with the rest to reduce system-level impacts.
This can also result in negative prices. While good for consumers, too much negative pricing can spell trouble for generators of all kinds. Negative pricing has been steadily increasing in recent years, and shifting to midday hours. January and February saw more than twice as many incidents of negative pricing as the year before, and the peak is expected to come in April.
Curtailment and negative prices come from a surfeit of generation. Lots of generation relative to supply means low prices, as generators compete to be called on by the ISO market optimization software. Too much generation, or “oversupply” as CAISO calls it, can create reliability problems, and must be curtailed.