[Darian S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'D')arian - "You can temporarily increase demand for a short while by borrowing against the future, but it is unsustainable." And thus the perpetual problem of using short term trends (a year or 3) to predict long term trends (5 to 10 years). The lag times are just to difficult to factor into the dynamics.

[ROCKMAN]

Darian - "The word is by 2020s demand might start outpacing supply." Demand (except during one specific dynamic) cannot exceed supply. Nor can supply exceed demand. Unless you have a very different definition of "demand"...such as demand = what consumers WANT to buy and not what they can afford to buy.

Supply will always equal demand. EXCEPT if oil prices become so low that there are many more buyers with the funds to acquire oil then there is oil production. Which cannot persist for very long because producers would use such demand to increase prices eliminating those potential buyers unable to afford the more expensive oil.

When oil fell to $29/bbl there were buyers for every bbl being sold. A lot of buyers which is why prices increased immediately after that low point was reached. Just as there were buyers for every bbl being sold when oil reached $146/bbl. Not as many buyers which is why prices decreased immediately after that high point was reached.

[Darian S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'D')arian - "The word is by 2020s demand might start outpacing supply." Demand (except during one specific dynamic) cannot exceed supply. Nor can supply exceed demand. Unless you have a very different definition of "demand"...such as demand = what consumers WANT to buy and not what they can afford to buy.

Supply will always equal demand. EXCEPT if oil prices become so low that there are many more buyers with the funds to acquire oil then there is oil production. Which cannot persist for very long because producers would use such demand to increase prices eliminating those potential buyers unable to afford the more expensive oil.

When oil fell to $29/bbl there were buyers for every bbl being sold. A lot of buyers which is why prices increased immediately after that low point was reached. Just as there were buyers for every bbl being sold when oil reached $146/bbl. Not as many buyers which is why prices decreased immediately after that high point was reached.

[Plantagenet]

Geologist Art Berman predicts imminent peak oil in Eagle Ford and Permian Basin

shale-skeptic-forecasts-imminent-demise-for-permian-and-eagle-ford

"The growth is done" ---Art Berman. That means the oil production rate is about to peak.

Cheers!

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'G')eologist Art Berman predicts imminent peak oil in Eagle Ford and Permian Basin

shale-skeptic-forecasts-imminent-demise-for-permian-and-eagle-ford

"The growth is done" ---Art Berman. That means the oil production rate is about to peak.

Cheers!

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')
Here's a Feb. 2018 look .... from the EIA.

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/2018/ ... th-by-2030

All I see is recent growth and rosy projections.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')erman was right on Bakken. 

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', ' ')the Bakken was ... 1 MMb/d and now it is at 1.2 MMb/d.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd just as the growth story stopped at the Bakken years ago,

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') The USGS estimate of technically recoverable resources was somewhere around 7 billion barrels and by some estimates, about 2 billion have been recovered to date. This leaves a lot of room for continued production from the Bakken.

[rockdoc123]

T$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')e Bakken is now producing about 1.2 MMb/d. That comes to about 0.44 billion bbls per year. If there are five billion bbls left in the Bakken field as you suggest, then the resource will be completely depleted in ca. 12 years. However, since the USGS estimate you refer to was actually made in 2013, there have actually already been 5 years of production since 2013, amounting to perhaps 1.5 billion barrels, and production really got going back in ca. 2008, and another ca. 1.5 billion bbls was produced from 2008-2013, the amount of remaining recoverable oil is probably closer to 4 billion barrels, which could be produced in ca. 9 years at current rates.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's difficult to see how that little burp ruined the shale bidness? But we were right . . . . only $100/barrel makes you sharks wealthy sprinkling eau d'bakken on your sorry selves. But it leaves a bad smell in the rest of America

[Plantagenet]

Shale Drillers experiencing "bottlenecks" in the Permian Basin...drillers turn attention elsewhere

shale-drillers-look-beyond-texas

The Permian Basin is nearing its peak. The best land has been drilled, and oilcos can't get enough sand to frack all the wells and there aren't enough truck drivers to move the sand into the well sites anyway. The WSJ now reports that the oilcos are starting to look again at second tier shale oil plays in Colorado and Oklahoma now that the Permian Basin is getting close to hitting its limit.

Cheers!

[tita]

Using DPR from EIA, we see that the Permian represented 55% of the LTO growth in 2017, and 65% since January 2018 (still estimates).

The Bakken (1.201 Mb/d in Apr 2018) recovered from its low production point in 2016 (0.995 Mb/d), but still has not reach its peak of December 2014 (1.263 Mb/d).

Eagle Ford recovered also (1.328 Mb/d in Apr. 2018 vs 1.166 Mb/d in dec 2016), but also is far away from its peak (1.718 Mb/d in March 2015).

So, once again, outside the Permian, oil production is not exactly soaring. But there is growth anyway, and including all the plays show impressive production gains. This is probably due to techniques we already discussed here.

The EIA forecast quite a growth for 2018 (avg 10.72 Mb/d) and for 2019 (avg 11.27 Mb/d). Also, most of the global growth rely on the US, which rely mostly on the Permian play currently. If, for whatever reason, the Permian play doesn't meet the expectations we set on it, the oil market will become really tight. And it's anyway due to happen at some point...

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o, once again, outside the Permian, oil production is not exactly soaring. But there is growth anyway, and including all the plays show impressive production gains. This is probably due to techniques we already discussed here.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', ' ')most of the global growth rely on the US, which rely mostly on the Permian play currently. If, for whatever reason, the Permian play doesn't meet the expectations we set on it, the oil market will become really tight. And it's anyway due to happen at some point...

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')When we hit peak Permian we will be getting very close to hitting global Peak Oil.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'R')egardless of the Permian peak, there is little or no chance that world production will ever exceed the Nov. 2016 high of 82,410.939 bpd.
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/br ... arted=0-12

Every oil region in the world (save a few) are well past peak. Among the OPEC-14 members, only Iraq, UAE and possibly SA are not past peak. These are the preeminent oil exporting countries.

Algeria in 2005
Angola in 2009
Ecuador now
Equatorial Guinea in 2005
Gabon in 1997
Iran in 1970
Kuwait in 1970
Libya in 1970
Nigeria in 2009
Qatar in 2010
Venezula in 1998

All the major oil regions (with the possible exception of Russia but can we trust them to say?) have peaked. OPEC, North Sea, North Slope, Bakken, Deepwater GOM, offshore GOM, Brazil deep water ETC ETC ETC. All peak or peaking right now. Peak is in the rear view mirror. I said it first. I said it here. Congrats for being a member of a very select historical group.

You can tell your grandchildren all about it. If you haven't eaten them already

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')No question the Permian will peak and decline at some point. But I question how that defines being very close to hitting global peak oil. The world is a big place. There's still lots of oil. Production technologies continue to advance.

[ralfy]

Objects don't care where oil comes from for obvious reasons, but those who pay do. That's because the deeper or dirtier the oil, the more processing needed, and that means higher costs. If costs are too high, then some goods and services are sacrificed for those that are needed more, and that affects economies that require increasing sales of goods and services.

Given that, the best-case scenario will involve every society returning to basic needs until the global population levels off. That's best-case because it assumes that the effects of environmental damage plus global warming will be minimized, that the global population won't rise further, that everyone (that means including the rich) will easily agree to much simpler lives (e.g., no more Internet, cars, etc.), that all military forces will stand down, etc.