by gego » Tue 19 Jul 2005, 23:22:41
I am an optimist. I think that my grandchildren, my children, and my wife and I will survive the next 50 years, except for death from old age; at least we will not die from the lack of water, food, shelter, and likely not from social breakdown violence.
However, I don't think that 80% of the rest of the world will so survive.
The laws of nature stack the odds against the overwhelming majority, simply because the human population is statistically out on a limb. The long term trend places the "mean" of human population at close to 1 billion. It is impossible to exist for any significant time with human population numbers beyond the third standard deviation. All statistical series return to the mean after venturing out to the third standard deviation netherland, and in fact overshoot, so maybe 500,000 in not out of the question.
I would not need to have ever heard of "peak oil" and I could have reached the conclusion that the human population was destined to snap back to 1 billion in the near future. Peal oil just explains the trigger event that will set off the implosion.
Those Pollyanna's among you will always convince yourselves that this catastrophy cannot happen. Just about every day someone posts the "salvation". Nobody believes it will happen to you.
Unless you insure as much as you can that you will have food, water, shelter, defense and some basic self health care over the next 50 years, then you probably one of the Titanic swimmers, and not on a life boat.