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PeakOil is You

THE Transportation Infrastructure Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Unread postby Doly » Wed 27 Apr 2005, 10:51:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I')f a wife can’t change a husband, how are “we” going to change “society”?

Wives change husbands (and husbands change wives) all the time. And some people *have* changed society (ask a few Peace Nobel Prizes, for positive examples).
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')he discussions of long range planning, societal reconstruction, entropy, inertia and all the rest of the big picture diversions will be as knowledge of stadium football statistics when your “job” is but a footnote in an unwritten history text, your home is a mud-lined culvert and your hungry child asks, “When you were talking about all this bad stuff happening to the world, why weren’t you doing something to keep this from happening to me?”

Absolutely true. We have to get going and *do* something. On the other hand, I see no reason to think small. If anybody here can do something big, that improves the lives, not just of their family, but lots more people, better than better!
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Unread postby HonestPessimist » Wed 27 Apr 2005, 21:35:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'S')orry for the rant, I didn’t mean to kill this thread, HP.
Actually my views of hypothetical solutions are quite similar to yours.
I sometimes get annoyed at myself for being distracted by the forest when I should be focusing on the path ahead and the work I should be doing to get down that path.
I guess a little of that annoyance slipped out… :oops:

Well, don't get easily distracted by those pesky fairies in the forest. ;)
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Unread postby Ludi » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 09:18:23

If you're proposing community solutions, can you also go into some detail as to how you will promote these solutions in your community? Otherwise you're just typing an essay for no real purpose. Those of us who are actually doing something tend to be doing it largely for ourselves and our families. I haven't heard of very many people on here who are actively working with their communities to find and build solutions. There's a lot of hot air on this messageboard, sorry, but that's how I see a lot of this speculating - hot air to no real purpose. What are you doing with these ideas? How will you promote and actualise these schemes? Or, how will you persuade powerful people in your community to implement them? That's what I'm interested in, the actualising of the solutions, not just the talk about them. Anyone can come up with a Big Plan to Save the World. What are you doing to make this a reality?
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Unread postby Revi » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 11:43:58

We are building community right here. In our peak oil group we have discussed how to reduce our electricity and fossil fuel use. An energy engineer is telling us how to reduce our own use. We have woodlots and hybrid cars and are working together to prepare for the coming reality. The solution is in working with our neighbors. :-D
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Unread postby HonestPessimist » Sat 30 Apr 2005, 12:26:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')f you're proposing community solutions, can you also go into some detail as to how you will promote these solutions in your community? Otherwise you're just typing an essay for no real purpose. Those of us who are actually doing something tend to be doing it largely for ourselves and our families. I haven't heard of very many people on here who are actively working with their communities to find and build solutions. There's a lot of hot air on this messageboard, sorry, but that's how I see a lot of this speculating - hot air to no real purpose. What are you doing with these ideas? How will you promote and actualise these schemes? Or, how will you persuade powerful people in your community to implement them? That's what I'm interested in, the actualising of the solutions, not just the talk about them. Anyone can come up with a Big Plan to Save the World. What are you doing to make this a reality?

When people you know and love are being suffering or dying as results of severe economic/financial situations associating with peak oil circumstances and people are calling for any solution to it, they're going to have to face up hard realities and much compromises in order to address the whole living infra-structural problems they have for years.
We cannot expect to maintain our current living infrastructure for as long as we can in the face of rising populations, rising oil/gas prices, dwindling resources and dangerous conflicts at home and abroad.
I agreed we all are just talking and discussing future community solutions on this message board and not taking such actions, however we are giving each other ideas and feedbacks in the process to improvise our ideas and actualize it at some points.
However, it's the people at large (your neighbors, your co-workers, your friends, whoever...) who are just contended to remain with what they have and wanted no drastic changes to their own status quo. That's the sad part. :(
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Unread postby HonestPessimist » Sun 05 Jun 2005, 22:18:14

Bump up in pertaining to the "Oil Storm" movie's depictions of the after-effects on the living infrastructure of America (and the world) as result of a major oil crisis.
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Unread postby mgibbons19 » Tue 28 Jun 2005, 10:17:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')f you're proposing community solutions, can you also go into some detail as to how you will promote these solutions in your community? Otherwise you're just typing an essay for no real purpose. Those of us who are actually doing something tend to be doing it largely for ourselves and our families. I haven't heard of very many people on here who are actively working with their communities to find and build solutions. There's a lot of hot air on this messageboard, sorry, but that's how I see a lot of this speculating - hot air to no real purpose. What are you doing with these ideas? How will you promote and actualise these schemes? Or, how will you persuade powerful people in your community to implement them? That's what I'm interested in, the actualising of the solutions, not just the talk about them. Anyone can come up with a Big Plan to Save the World. What are you doing to make this a reality?

Bump this thread up.
I have to say that I am not doing a damn thing for my community. This town has potential to be sure. But until Oil and related transportation infrastructure is on everybody's radar as a problem, I will only sound like a loon.
In the meantime, I have made changes that should help my family. I unloaded a beat up sport ute, avoiding its costs, before the market for such trucks totally tanked. I live a half mile from work, and ride or bike in, creating more savings for myself, and presenting another cyclist on the road.
I wish there was something I could do for my community, but there really isn't, at least not yet.
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Unread postby Pops » Tue 28 Jun 2005, 18:23:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('HonestPessimist', ' ')When people you know and love are being suffering or dying as results of severe economic/financial situations associating with peak oil circumstances and people are calling for any solution to it, they're going to have to face up hard realities ... However, it's the people at large (your neighbors, your co-workers, your friends, whoever...) who are just contended to remain with what they have and wanted no drastic changes to their own status quo. That's the sad part. :(

I think you made Ludi’s point here; to your neighbors, friends and co-workers you have made no real contribution by typing lofty rhetoric on a site such as this unless you have made real changes in your own lifestyle so that you, yourself, don’t become the “suffering or dying” burden on those same people.
The “living infrastructure” grew for only one reason: to make a profit from what the masses wanted. The only way to change the infrastructure is to change your habits. As I read it Ludi has been making those changes.
Many people come here looking for ways to prepare for the future. I simply think posting the changes we are actually making in our own lives is the better contribution than another scheme to coerce the people with money to tear down what is making a profit today on the basis of some loony conspiracy theory like PO.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Unread postby mgibbons19 » Wed 29 Jun 2005, 09:39:43

Well maybe I'll do the second best thing then.

What's that?
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Unread postby Pops » Wed 29 Jun 2005, 09:48:59

2nd best: Eat grass fed meat?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Unread postby nocar » Wed 29 Jun 2005, 12:22:33

In my opinion, living car free ties with being a vegetarian.
Before industrialision, humanity lived quite sustainable also on a nonveggie diet. In many places, animals can eat things that grow on ground that is not suitable for growing crops.
With industrialisation, and particularly when we started wasting so much resources moving big metal gizmos (=automobiles) around, we started to destroy our earth real fast. So a very good thing to do for your community is to get rid of your car. Your neighbors might get a revelation: Is it really possible to exist without having a car!
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Unread postby HonestPessimist » Sun 03 Jul 2005, 18:54:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') think you made Ludi’s point here; to your neighbors, friends and co-workers you have made no real contribution by typing lofty rhetoric on a site such as this unless you have made real changes in your own lifestyle so that you, yourself, don’t become the “suffering or dying” burden on those same people.

I'm not talking about just me. I'm talking about everyone who are living under the current living infrastructure. I'm talking about people who are contended with the status quo and would not wanted anything to change drastically. If something happens to everyone when the shits hit the fan, everyone would be looking for scapegoats and lash out, even they are to be blamed for the problems started in the first place.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')he “living infrastructure” grew for only one reason: to make a profit from what the masses wanted. The only way to change the infrastructure is to change your habits. As I read it Ludi has been making those changes.

Ludi is one person. There are many people out there who are not like Ludi, you or me, for that matter. People would seek opportunities to make a profit out of it, including changing habits.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'M')any people come here looking for ways to prepare for the future. I simply think posting the changes we are actually making in our own lives is the better contribution than another scheme to coerce the people with money to tear down what is making a profit today on the basis of some loony conspiracy theory like PO.

That may be one factor, in your opinion. There are other factors: demands, supplies, resources, wars, trades, habits, desires, changes. All involved oil and how much is being used to move or power things around.
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Report Card for America's Infrastructure.

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 18 Jul 2005, 02:55:14

Let's get real here folks. Why are there such doomer forecasts? Maybe it's because a bit of homework has been done about the Big Picture. Hydrocarbon depletion is going to change the world. Some think for the better soon, some eventually, some never. Mad Max.
I tend to look at our limitations to bear the brunt of this storm. We know that whatever we do, it will require trillions of dollars of investment in infrastructure. Money that we don't have unless we "print it" causing hyperinflation.
Building new nuclear plants, transmission lines (more important than the plants, I'll have you know), ramping up coal production, hydrogen facilities, LNG tankers, etc. Massive new infrastructure.
No problem, you say? Well, let's have a look at our "current" infrastructure, shall we? After all, this is America, the "can do" place. We have built the best shit anywhere, right? So, let's see how we are doing, cause if we are not doing well, we don't have a snowballs chance in hell in building the required infrastructure to deal with peak oil.
The American Society of Civil Engineers assembled a panel of 24 of the nation’s leading civil engineers, analyzed hundreds of studies, reports and other sources, and surveyed more than 2,000 engineers to determine what was happening in the field.

Here is their report:The American Society of Civil Engineers' 2005 Report Card for America's Infrastructure
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ongested highways, overflowing sewers and corroding bridges are constant reminders of the looming crisis that jeopardizes our nation's prosperity and our quality of life. With new grades for the first time since 2001, our nation's infrastructure has shown little to no improvement since receiving a collective D+ in 2001, with some areas sliding toward failing grades.

Aviation D+
Gridlock on America’s runways eased from crisis levels earlier in the decade due to reduced demand and recent modest funding increases. However, air travel and traffic have reportedly surpassed pre Sept. 11 levels and are projected to grow 4.3% annually through 2015. Airports will face the challenge of accommodating increasing numbers of regional jets and new superjumbo jets.

Bridges C
Between 2000 and 2003, the percentage of the nation’s 590,750 bridges rated structurally deficient or functionally obsolete decreased slightly from 28.5% to 27.1%. However, it will cost $9.4 billion a year for 20 years to eliminate all bridge deficiencies. Longterm underinvestment is compounded by the lack of a Federal transportation program.

Dams D
Since 1998, the number of unsafe dams has risen by 33% to more than 3,500.
While federally owned dams are in good condition, and there have been modest gains in repair, the number of dams identified as unsafe is increasing at a faster rate than those being repaired. $10.1 billion is needed over the next 12 years to address all critical nonfederal dams—dams which pose a direct risk to human life should they fail.

Drinking Water D–
America faces a shortfall of $11 billion annually to replace aging facilities and comply with safe drinking water regulations. Federal funding for drinking water in 2005 remained level at $850 million, less than 10% of the total national requirement. The Bush administration has proposed the same level of funding for FY06.

Energy (National Power Grid) D
The U.S. power transmission system is in urgent need of modernization. Growth in electricity demand and investment in new power plants has not been matched by investment in new transmission facilities. Maintenance expenditures have decreased 1% per year since 1992. Existing transmission facilities were not designed for the current level of demand, resulting in an increased number of ‘bottlenecks’ which increase costs to consumers and elevate the risk of blackouts.

Hazardous Waste D
Federal funding for ‘Superfund’ cleanup of the nation’s worst toxic waste sites has steadily declined since 1998, reaching its lowest level since 1986 in FY05. There are 1,237 contaminated sites on the National Priorities List, with possible listing of an additional 10,154. In 2003, there were 205 U.S. cities with ‘brownfields’ sites awaiting cleanup and redevelopment. It is estimated that redevelopment of those sites would generate 576,373 new jobs and $1.9 billion annually for the economy.

Navigable Waterways D–
A single barge traveling the nation’s waterways can move the same amount of cargo as 58 semi-trucks at one-tenth the cost reducing highway congestion and saving money. Of the 257 locks on the more than 12,000 miles of inland waterways operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, nearly 50% are functionally obsolete. By 2020, that number will increase to 80%. The cost to replace the present system of locks is more than $125 billion.

Public Parks & Recreation C
Many of our nation’s public parks, beaches and recreational harbors are falling into a state of disrepair. Much of the initial construction of roads, bridges, utility systems, shore protection structures and beaches was done more than 50 years ago. These facilities are anchors for tourism and economic development and often provide the public’s only access to the country’s cultural, historic and natural resources. The National Park Service estimates a maintenance backlog of $6.1 billion for their facilities. Additionally, there is great need for maintenance, replacement and construction of new infrastructure in our nation’s state and municipal park systems.

Railroads C
For the first time since World War II, limited rail capacity has created significant chokepoints and delays. This problem will increase as freight rail tonnage is expected to increase at least 50% by 2020. In addition, the use of rail trackage for intercity passenger and commuter rail service is increasingly being recognized as a worthwhile transportation investment. Congestion relief, improved safety, environmental and economic development benefits result from both freight and passenger market shifts to rail creating a rational for public sector investment.The freight railroad industry needs to spend $175-$195 billion over the next 20 years
to maintain existing infrastructure and expand for freight growth. Expansion of the railroad network to develop intercity corridor passenger rail service is estimated to cost approximately $60 billion over 20 years. All told, investment needs are $12-13 billion per year.

Roads D
Poor road conditions cost U.S. motorists $54 billion a year in repairs and operating costs—$275 per motorist. Americans spend 3.5 billion hours a year stuck in traffic, at a cost of $63.2 billion a year to the economy. Total spending of $59.4 billion annually is well below the $94 billion needed annually to improve transportation infrastructure conditions nationally. While long-term Federal transportation programs remain unauthorized since expiring on Sept. 30, 2003, the nation continues to shortchange funding for needed transportation improvements.

Schools D
The Federal government has not assessed the condition of America’s schools since 1999, when it estimated that $127 billion was needed to bring facilities to good condition. Other sources have since reported a need as high as $268 billion.
Despite public support of bond initiatives to provide funding for school facilities, without a clear understanding of the need, it is uncertain whether schools can meet increasing enrollment demands and the smaller class sizes mandated by the No Child Left Behind Act.

Security I
While the security of our nation’s critical infrastructure has improved since Sept. 11, the information needed to accurately assess its status is not readily available to engineering professionals. This information is needed to better design, build and operate the nation's critical infrastructure in more secure ways. Security performance standards, measures and indices need to be developed, and funding must be focused on all critical infrastructure sectors, beyond aviation.

Solid Waste C+
The nation’s operating municipal landfills are declining in total numbers, but capacity has remained steady due to the construction of numerous regional landfills. In 2002, the United States produced 369 million tons of solid waste of all types. Only about a quarter of that total was recycled or recovered.

Mass Transit D+
Transit use increased faster than any other mode of transportation—up 21%—between 1993 and 2002. Federal investment during this period stemmed the decline in the condition of existing transit infrastructure. The reduction in federal investment in real dollars since 2001 threatens this turnaround. In 2002, total capital outlays for transit were $12.3 billion. The Federal Transit Administration estimates $14.8 billion is needed annually to maintain conditions, and $20.6 billion is needed to improve to “good” conditions. Meanwhile, many major transit properties are borrowing funds to maintain operations, even as they are significantly raising fares and cutting back service.

Waste water D–
Aging wastewater management systems discharge billions of gallons of untreated sewage into U.S. surface waters each year. The EPA estimates that the nation must invest $390 billion over the next 20 years to replace existing systems and build new ones to meet increasing demands. Yet, in 2005, Congress cut funding for wastewater management for the first time in eight years. The Bush administration has proposed a further 33% reduction, to $730 million, for FY06.

America‛s Infrastructure G.P.A. = D
Total Investment Needs = $1.6 Trillion 8O :shock: :(
(estimated 5-year need—does not include security investment needs)
A = Exceptional
B = Good
C = Mediocre
D = Poor
F = Failing
I = Incomplete
Each category was evaluated on the basis of condition and performance, capacity vs. need, and funding vs. need. PDF (Note: 3.9 megabyte file)
Last edited by MonteQuest on Tue 19 Jul 2005, 11:55:50, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread postby Jack » Mon 18 Jul 2005, 07:10:21

It's interesting that the great infrastructure projects were, by and large, conceived and completed prior to North American peak oil.

Now, we cannot even maintain those projects. Which is, I think, telling.
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Unread postby Doly » Mon 18 Jul 2005, 07:19:55

I wonder if there is somewhere similar data for European countries?
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Unread postby ShaneT34 » Mon 18 Jul 2005, 09:32:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'I')t's interesting that the great infrastructure projects were, by and large, conceived and completed prior to North American peak oil.
Now, we cannot even maintain those projects. Which is, I think, telling.

Yes. Higher oil prices are having an impact on infrastructure maintenance. In a June 2005 Vermont NPR story, I thought the speakers made a compelling case for the direct connection between increased oil costs and increased highway maintenance costs.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ignificantly higher oil prices are having a dramatic impact on the cost of highway paving projects in Vermont. As a result, some planned road repairs will have to be postponed...
..."[High oil prices have] basically doubled our fuel bill to produce a ton of asphalt. The higher end liquids which the state typically specifies are dramatically more expensive this year over the tail end of last year."
..."There have been spikes in oil prices in recent years that didn't translate into substantial changes in paving estimates. But this year for the first time in many, many years, we are seeing that translation."
...""This is a challenge that we see into the future with no end in sight."

It is difficult to see how we will develop the new energy infrastructures we will need (nuclear, wind, water, solar, bio; insert your favorite) when we cannot afford to maintain what we have, and when maintaining what we have will be necessary to develop and implement the new.
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Unread postby Wildwell » Mon 18 Jul 2005, 10:21:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'I') wonder if there is somewhere similar data for European countries?

UK:
Road
-road condition is improving
-27% of footways have defects
-4.2% of motorways (freeways) need close monitoring now 80.5% will need monitoring in 20 years time.
-5.9% of principal routes need close monitoring due to defects, 65% will need monitoring in 20 years time
-overall the figure is 18%
Link
Overall condition, average to good and improving

Rail
Large renewal projects needed for 1960s/70s route relay signalling and track in the next ten years, costs are due to drop significantly
Link
Plenty of capacity left on current trains although there are peak overcrowding problems. Average load is 39% intercity 31% commuter 30% regional.
Broken rails at lowest ever levels.
Network capability is show here (current bottlenecks etc)
Link
Detailed route condition, costs, problems, traffic and upgrades shown here
Link
Overall condition average to good and improving

Water
Link
Condition good. Leakage at low rates. 10% of mains in poor condition, 11% of sewers.

Power
Network security and future
Link
Proposed EU directive on security
Link
Much of the network needs updating in the next 20 years, lots on new power stations on line, nuclear power stations ageing
Link

Various detail info can be found Grid
Overall condition good and improving

Tube
Link
Condition Poor-Good depending on line, due to past under investment. Complete resignalling and new stock is on order for several lines, money allocated and design work underway.

Air
Poor punctuality and customer service dominates
Link
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4164159.stm
Airspace and airports congested
Air traffic control system upgraded and further upgrades are planned

Overall there’s no evidence that infrastructure is poor, but money does need spending on it. Unable to find conditions overall for Europe but condition likely to be good from anecdotal evidence.
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Unread postby Doly » Mon 18 Jul 2005, 10:31:17

Certainly rail is better in most of the rest of Europe, because the comment of all my foreign friends and myself when we arrive at the UK are on the line of: "And these are the guys that INVENTED rail??!!"

It would be most useful to find a comparative study on different countries, but of course that will be difficult.
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Unread postby linlithgowoil » Mon 18 Jul 2005, 11:15:32

thing is though, how many times do you read all these reports and they say 'unless something is done, there'll be disaster!', and then the projected year of disaster comes and goes, nothing happens, and the reports continue to say 'disaster ahead'! for ever more.

maybe the reports are simply written by folk who want more money ploughed into their industry? i'd be very surprised to see a report from a car manufacturer say 'Everything's great! We don't need any money for the roads!' - of COURSE they are going to ask for more and more money, and embellish the claims of impending doom etc.

infrastructure worldwide has laways been crappy as far as i can remember. hasn't the USA always had shocking road surfaces? i was in florida in 2000 and the roads were all cracked - it resembled a third world country in some areas, but its always been like that hasnt it? things still seem to get done.
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Unread postby MD » Mon 18 Jul 2005, 11:27:44

I need to go read some uplifting material in order to reinvigorate my optimism.
Good grief....
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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