[asg70]

Rockdock AND peakoilwhen are BOTH wrong.

Oil is not abiotic. There's just more recoverable oil than peakers predicted.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peakoilwhen', 'N')ew annual record supply set : 96.9 Mb/d ave - 2016, previous record 96.6 Mb/d ave 2015
New quarterly record supply set : 97.9 Md/d ave - 2016, previous record 97.4 Mb/d ave 2015

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peakoilwhen', 'a')sk rockman or study my sources if you don't trust my word.

[peakoilwhen]

>says conventional peak is 2005
>posts graph saying conventional peak is 2011

seems legit reasoning.
You haven't changed pstarr

[Cog]

Unconventional oil burns just as bright as the conventional stuff. Who would have thunk it? LOL

[Yoshua]

Conventional crude oil peaked in 2005 and has been on a plateau since then plus minus 4 percent. By keeping the production on a plateau for 12 years there is a enormous risk that the production will fall off the cliff and start to collapse. The plateau will not last forever.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'U')nconventional oil burns just as bright as the conventional stuff. Who would have thunk it? LOL

[Cog]

Are those numbers supposed to me something to me? Lottery numbers?

[peakoilwhen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peakoilwhen', 'N')ew annual record supply set : 96.9 Mb/d ave - 2016, previous record 96.6 Mb/d ave 2015
New quarterly record supply set : 97.9 Md/d ave - 2016, previous record 97.4 Mb/d ave 2015

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peakoilwhen', 'I')'m pleased to see the truth is finally getting out and about. While I've been away from here for the last few years, I've been able to research the origins of oil, and there is no doubt - oil, like all mineral hydrocarbon, is abiotic, created in the deep Earth. It continues to be created in colossal quanitys every day. Geologic peakoil can never happen, because humans cannot extract oil faster than the Earth makes it. There is a greater reserve of oil in the ground today than ever before, and tomorrow there will be more.

[peakoilwhen]

hi kub. nice to read your rational posts again.
you know rockman, arguably the 2nd most respected petrologist on PO.com has converted to abiotic theory. How have you 2 got along recently?

Yes, a cubic mile of oil. Today the deep Earth can replace that. But half a billion years ago it probably wouldn't have. The rate of new mass output has increased greatly in the last hundred million years. Today its more than ever, and continues to increase.

The new material output of the deep Earth is around 2740 cubic miles of mass per year. Not all of it is oil, but a small part is.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peakoilwhen', 'I')'m pleased to see the truth is finally getting out and about. While I've been away from here for the last few years, I've been able to research the origins of oil, and there is no doubt - oil, like all mineral hydrocarbon, is abiotic, created in the deep Earth. It continues to be created in colossal quanitys every day. Geologic peakoil can never happen, because humans cannot extract oil faster than the Earth makes it. There is a greater reserve of oil in the ground today than ever before, and tomorrow there will be more.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')i kub. nice to read your rational posts again.
you know rockman, arguably the 2nd most respected petrologist on PO.com has converted to abiotic theory. How have you 2 got along recently?

Yes, a cubic mile of oil. Today the deep Earth can replace that. But half a billion years ago it probably wouldn't have. The rate of new mass output has increased greatly in the last hundred million years. Today its more than ever, and continues to increase.

The new material output of the deep Earth is around 2740 cubic miles of mass per year. Not all of it is oil, but a small part is.

[ROCKMAN]

POW/70 - You're bringing good energy to the game...keep it up. Now pay f*cking attention. LOL.

I think somewhere here there's been a mix up with who said what. But not a big deal. OK, the date of global PO: the Rockman doesn't give a crap because it has little importance. But the wildly volatile events encompassing the Peak Oil Dynamic are very important. Enough said about that here. See details elsewhere if interested.

And now for some hair splitting about. I have an oil field producing 10,000 bopd in Jab 2017. As it depletes production drops to 900 bopd on Jan 2018. Thus the field's PO date is Jan 2017. But during Feb 2018 oil prices crash so by March 2018 I crank my pumps up to 1,100 bopd. That's well above the MER...Maximum Efficient Rate. That's the production rate above which one MIGHT reduce ultimate recovery and perhaps even damage the wells.

But I need the f*cking revenue to pay my bills. So is Jan 2017 the PO date for the field or is it now March 2018. Statistically it's March 2018 but if one takes that info to imply that I will recover more oil from the field you would be wrong. In fact, it might even imply a decrease in ultimate recover. This is a real aspect of current situation and not theoretical: seen it done numerous times in my career.

But the impossible answer is to what degree has happened due to new wells being drilled? IOW how much of the recent oil production increase is from newly discovered reserves and how much from pumping old reserves harder? No way to tell. But the good news: again it still isn't important. Virtually every other factor in the POD has much greater potential impact on our lives then the GPO date. So for Dog's sake stop the f*cking arguments. LOL.

Now abiotic oil. Some time ago the Rockman acknowledged that he had come to the realization that ALL OIL HAS AN ABIOTIC ORIGIN. And why? So we could stop wasting more f*cking time arguing about it just like we were doing over PO dates. LOL. For more then 40 years the Rockman searched for potential oil accumulations. The depths/temperatures of those accumulations would be restricted by physical laws. The geological setting (trap morphology, rock type, etc) also define limits where such accumulations might exist. What has no effect on the location of those potential accumulations is how that oil was created. Which is why the Rockman and the vast majority of explorationists have never been concerned about the creation of oil. Just a very few geologists have been: those exploring in new areas where the presence of oil had yet to be detertmined. They look for SOURCE ROCKS and not the actual accumulations.

This was a hot topic decades ago about the potential off the east coast of the US as well in our Arctic waters. The US govt actually allowed consortiums of companies to drill "strat tests" in those regions for free. The primary goal of those stratigraphic tests was to determine if oil (regardless of its origin) had migrated through those areas. Secondary goal was to determine if rocks capable of accumulating commercial deposits of oil (regardless of its origin) were present in those areas. Not many strat tests are drilled now since few "pioneer plays" remain.

IOW 99.79% of the industry's effort today is focused on finding oil accumulations...regardless of how the oil was created. And 0.19% are focused on finding any undiscovered petroleum basins. And the other 0.02%? They are wasting their time arguing about abiotic oil. LOL.

[peakoilwhen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'I') am not a big beliver in abiotic oil, but the theory of the oil flooded Earth is also goofy. To get oceans of oil there would have to be zero oxygen in the atmosphere, if you had oil all over the air would oxidize it back to water vapor and CO2.

[ROCKMAN]

k - "Rockman does not agree with your position that the rate of oil accumulation is high enough to offset our extraction rates." But the Rockman could be wrong...that did happen once very long ago when he was young and inexperienced. LOL.

But it doesn't matter if oil (abiotic or biotic) is accumulating quickly or not. As explained above we still have to find it. If oil is currently accumulating in any field I'm producing I would know about it. Maintaining a clear picture of where oil is concentrated in a reservoir OVER TIME is the primary job of a PRODUCTION GEOLOGIST as opposed to an exploration geologist. The Rockman has been a production geologist much of his career. And we have some rather sophisticated tech to do it. In fact the Rockman's current hot project (drilling hz wells in a 70 year old oil field) was based solely on his work proving oil existed in areas in the reservoir where others assumed were depleted.

IOW over the last 4 decades the Rockman has found beaucoup oil in areas of reservoirs others thought did not exist. The Rockman's first promotion came in the late 70's for doing such a good job in offshore Louisiana for Mobil Oil. I have to stop typing now...shoulder sore from patting myself on the back.