[Revi]

I know how you feel. I've got a kid and a wife and can't just take off to the backside of Borneo or somewhere. I can, however start to create a soft landing pad for us. We have installed solar, bought a woodlot, shrunk our cars and are out of debt, almost.

I feel like I see peak oil everywhere. It's in the news. The prez of bolivia steps down, the yukos scandal, the problems with the US economy, everywhere! Am I just seeing the world through the peak oil lens, or is it really getting close to the time when TSHTF? What can we do about it anyway? I thought of buying a farm to weather the storm, but the taxes would eat up any possible income. I don't have the money to buy one, anyway.

I guess the only thing to do is to plan as best we can, and then let it happen.

[Roop]

This is my first post to PeakOil.com, let me introduce myself by saying that I am a 25 year old man who has lived in Louisville, Kentucky for nearly 2 years, I am a native of Massachusetts. I just wanted to share how I am dealing with Peak Oil and my thoughts on how I plan to prepare, please excuse my rambling style of writing.

I've been aware of Peak Oil for less than a month and obviously it has been quite a shock to my system. It started when I read an interview with James Howard Kunstler on Salon.com and went out and bought his book "The Long Emergency" and read it. I have to admit, within the first 40 pages or so I really started to freak out and feel completely depressed, it was suddenly like the world around me had suddenly become a living nightmare. I could not look at at anything the same: washing dishes or clothes, driving a car, taking a shower, eating food, etc. without feeling incredibly bummed out. I started ranting to my fiancee about how we needed to learn how to grow all of our food, how we were living in a dangerous place for a petroleum depleted future (Louisville, KY) because all of the crazies were gonna get us, how there was no point in me going to a grad school for library science since there would be no use for libraries when we were just trying to eat, etc. All of these things did kind of upset her, however she did like the idea of subsistence gardening. I couldn't even enjoy going down to my favorite local brew pub to have a couple of pints without thinking how someday we won't be able to brew beer. Another interesting effect of my Peak Oil awareness was that it initially killed my life-long enthusiasm for cars, something I could never have imagined. I suddenly lost interest in restoring the 1970 Saab sitting half apart in my garage as the idea of it seemed so futile and wasteful. I also temporarily lost interest in anything else modern like recorded music. The only exception, of course, was the internet (so I could continue researching Peak Oil).

The hardest thing in dealing with Peak Oil is that I am a depression and anxiety prone person and somewhat of a pessimist to boot. The first thing I've done in an attempt to salvage my sanity is to not read any more of the more pessimistic aspects of Peak Oil (great die-off, Olduvai Theory, famine, etc.). As fascinating as that stuff may be it does nothing except freak me out and cause me to start mulling my eventual suicide. I always had a hard time thinking forward about the future. I've been kind of trying to figure out what to do when I "grow up" since graduating from UMass with a B.A. in Communication in '02 and this whole Peak Oil thing has really kind of thrown a monkey wrench into vague plans for the future.

After the initial freak-out and telling everyone I could about Peak Oil I managed to push it to the back of my mind for about a week. This was good since I was able to enjoy the visit with my family in Massachusetts and I also had my fear of flying to deal with, can't have too much on my plate at once. About a week ago I type "Peak Oil" in Google again and here I am...

My plan right now for dealing with Peak Oil is to try to see how I'm doing now and what I can do to realistically prepare. I've realized that I am actually in not such a bad place in my life for it all. First, my fiancee and I live pretty close to most of what we need, she lives less than two miles from her job as an English teacher at a progressive private high school. The only real driving either of us have to do is my daily 15 mile roundtrip commute to work at a soulless suburban office park. However, I have changed my plans for grad school. Instead of a 2-hour roundtrip commute at to the University of Kentucky for a library sciences degree I have decided instead to apply to the urban planning program at the University of Louisville which is right downtown which I can easily ride my bicycle to. Louisville is also a fairly small city with a lot of surrounding land that could be useful for agriculture, although more and more of it is being gobbled up for ridiculous McMansion subdivisions. We are planning on purchasing a house next year in this section of town and fortunately the housing bubble never really affected this area, a good small house can be had in Louisville for $50-75k. When we finally get one I plan on doing solar electricity and hot water heating, wood stove, and backyard garden. The only real debt either of us have are student loans from our undergraduate educations, we have always tried to live frugally and within our means.

One of my biggest worries about Peak Oil is how my immediate family will deal with it. I've told both of my parents about Peak Oil and they have acknowledged that it is a problem. They live in a fairly good place, a small town in northeastern Massachusetts with lots of room for local agriculture. However, both of them have fairly long commutes to their jobs which are both vulnerable to the problems of Peak Oil (dad works for Home Depot, mom works for Verizon). They are in their late forties/early fifties and they will be getting older as Peak Oil becomes more of a problem. On the up side is that they also live fairly frugal lives and my dad is a pretty handy guy with lots of old Yankee know-how. I'm also concerned about my sister who just graduated from college and moved to New York City to pursue a career in theater. I have a feeling that large cities will not be a very good place to live in the coming decades. I am also worried about living 1000 miles away from them as I have a feeling that in the coming decades the world is going to become a much bigger place again.

I'll end my post by discussing what I am doing now to prepare for Peak Oil. I've been very careful about conserving electricity, not using A/C in my home, making sure I turn lights off, etc. I've tried to reduce my driving as much as possible, bicycling where I can instead. I drive an '85 Saab with 140k miles and I plan on keeping it as long as possible, I figure why replace a car that works perfectly well? Again, I feel very fortunate to live here in the Highlands section of Louisville where just about everything is within walking distance. We've also been trying to buy more organic and/or locally produced food and support local businesses. Finally, I've again been able to take pleasure in things like listening to records and CDs and watching movies, trying not to take such technology for granted. I've also started wrenching on the antique Saab in the garage, I figure it can be my last hurrah with cars and just because I have it doesn't mean that I have to drive it that much. I'm also considering a scooter or small motorcycle for commuting to work. Finally, I'm also pondering the idea of trying to hook up with some other Peak Oil people in Louisville as I know there must be some out there.

So I guess that's that, I'm happy to have found this group. Take care.

[Claudia]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve been aware of Peak Oil for less than a month and obviously it has been quite a shock to my system. It started when I read an interview with James Howard Kunstler on Salon.com and went out and bought his book "The Long Emergency" and read it.

[sdcoyote]

Roop...

Don't give up on that advanced degree...It may be your ticket out of misery.

I finished my BS several years ago and was certified to teach high school. I did so in an urban area.

However, the moment PO became real to me everything changed. That was in 1994. A good friend of mine is a geologist (Ph.D. - taught at a school of mines in Missouri) and while drinking some very good wine one evening he proved to me that we as a culture were/are in big trouble because of energy. The next day I talked it over with my wife and children and we decided to make big changes. I went back to school (I already had an MA) and was awarded a Ph.D 4 years later. Why you ask? Simple, really.

I have leveraged the Ph.D. into a small farm and a job that pays really well while being at work only 2-3 days per week (post tenure, however. Pre tenure was different). I have to publish, which I do, but that is really not all that difficult either if you know the scientific method and how to conduct an experiment (I have co-authored 2 books and published 20 articles).

I chose and was hired at a university that is located in a very rural area. We are into organic farming, chickens, a couple of pigs, and hope to own a dairy cow in the near future. We have wood stoves in an old house that I continually renovate with PO in mind. We have a HUGE garden. The goal is to produce 90% of what we consume. In time we will.

Finally, it is quite windy where I live. The plan is to put in a turbine next year.

The key here is to take control of your life. Create a plan and DO IT. It may not work out. It may take 10 years. The point is that this is better than moping around, worrying about when PO is going to hit.

Cause, its gonna...

And, when it does, I may (probably being a better word) not have a cushy university job. What I will have, however, is a way that my family can be a service to the community and help it survive.

[0mar]

Know, not fear, that one day, you are going to die. Everything else falls into place.

[Roop]

sdcoyote,

I'm definitely not giving up on an advanced degree, it's just that my awareness of Peak Oil has changed my mind about what I want to pursue. I'd rather bike to the local university for their urban planning graduate program then get in my car and drive over an hour each way to a different school to study library science. I think being able to create walkable communities is going to be one of the most important things we can do in the coming decades. One good thing about Peak Oil is that it has, in a strange way, given me a real sense of purpose to work to change the world, if only in a small way.

[marko]

Roop, I read your post and could identify with a lot of what you wrote. Thanks for writing it.

However, I would encourage you to choose something other than an urban planning degree. I thought about going into urban planning myself, as it fascinates me, but gave it up for the following reasons.

If you've read much on this site, you've probably heard that a lot of people see an economic collapse in the next few years, something like the Great Depression of the 1930s, maybe worse. This won't be primarily because of peak oil, though high oil prices might be a trigger. Instead it will be due to the global economic collapse that will occur when the current unsustainable, debt-driven system of global finance breaks down. This involves the US borrowing more than $2 billion every business day from the rest of the world, and it works only as long as real estate prices keep rising and allowing Americans to borrow more money.

When this system breaks down, millions (probably tens of millions) of Americans will be effectively bankrupt, even if the new bankruptcy law keeps them from declaring bankruptcy. (Taking out a mortgage on a house will put you at serious risk of being one of these people. Even though houses in Kentucky are cheap by Massachusetts standards, their prices are likely to drop when the economy collapses.) Banks will probably fail. Tens of millions of people will lose their jobs. There will be hunger.

Jobs for people like city planners will be among the first to go, since cities and counties will lose much of their tax base and will have to lay off all but the most essential staff (i.e. police, maybe fire, maybe a few school teachers if they accept voluntary, large pay cuts).

If I were in my 20s, I would be learning a trade that will be useful even in an economic depression and that will continue to be useful as society moves away from petroleum. The kinds of people who are likely to have fairly secure work (at reduced real rates of pay) are health-care providers, plumbers, carpenters, all-purpose mechanics and machinists (who can repair broken machinery), police officers, and so on.

If you want to study something more academic, I would recommend engineering. You might specialize in industrial engineering, since high fuel costs will probably bring some production back to the US, and there will be a demand for engineers who can come up with more fuel-efficient processes or who can retrofit homes for greater energy efficiency (for the rich people who will be able to afford this).

Another obvious tack to take would be to move to a farming community and learn how to farm. There are some intentional communities out there (several in Missouri) that already practice a fairly sustainable form of farming and that might do relatively well in an economic collapse. (At least they won't have to worry about starving.)

I am sort of taking this last tack, or at least moving in that direction, by the way.

[Roop]

marko,

I agree and think we could very well be on the urge of the second Great Depression. I have a BA in communication and when the economy starts to give way my current job working as a video monitor for this video newsclipping service will probably be one of the first to disappear. I am sure of it. My job exists because of large corporations and celebrities who contact us to buy reports on what's being said about them in the mainstream media. So obviously there's very little future in that.

Let me try to restate my reasons for pursuing urban planning:

1. I really like tinkering with mechanical things and knowing how things work but I suck at math, always have and always will. So a degree in engineering is definitely out.

2. I was going to pursue a degree in library sciences at the University of Kentucky which is at least a good one hour drive from Louisville each way. That's already an expensive commute and will be much worse when gas hits $5+ a gallon which is not far off. The University of Louisville (where they have a good urban planning program) is practically down the street from me so is easily accesible on foot/bicycle. Secondly, I think being a reference librarian, which was my original plan, will be less important in an energy scare future, after all a majority of these people work for corporations, etc.

3. I think one thing important to try to soften the blow of the system breaking down is to begin ASAP to start building walkable mixed use communities. I pretty much live in one now and I love it. I know getting new ones going in the near future is highly unlikely but who knows what will happen as energy costs rise and people can't afford their long commutes and mall trips. It will be necessary to have walkable communities along with reclaiming space for agriculture, probably from today's sprawl. I hope I'm not sounding foolishly optimistic. I'm just really turned on to new urbanism and I really want to be part of making it happen in the US. I've been reading a lot of Jim Kunstler and have been greatly inspired. Ok, I know that my motivations probably seem kind of naive, but I need some hope or what's the point?

I do like the idea of moving to a more self-sufficient farming community. About the whole house thing: I am really trying to stall on buying one with my fiancee. She and I are getting married in a little over a month, we currently live together in a rented house but she is dying to buy a house as soon as our lease is up (March '06). In fact she had just about convinced me on that and then I found about Peak Oil. I have been talking a lot of Peak Oil to her and one of my concerns is that if we buy a house and the economy (or more specifically the housing market) tanks we'll be be stuck here in Louisville permanently and I don't want that to happen. She seems to think we'll buy a house, turn it over in a few years for more money and then move up north. I just wonder what will happen when no-one can pay their mortgages, are they just going to repossess everyone's houses? We would love to move back to Massachusetts soon but the reality is she and I only make about $50k/year combined (she's a high school English teacher) so that is just not possible.

As I said before I do have an interest in mechanical things. I really enjoy tinkering with old cars, bicycles, and tackling smallish DIY projects. I consider myself fairly mechanically competent. Still, I could never see myself pursuing a career in this as it is more of a hobby. My fiancee and I definitely have an interest in permaculture and we both plan on reading up on it and getting a garden going. As I've said I'm new to the whole Peak Oil thing (just found out about it a month ago) so I'm still doing a lot of readjusting. The best thing I've done so far is join the Louisville Peak Oil Awareness Meetup Group, a really great bunch of people, I attended my first meeting yesterday. I believe that responding to Peak Oil is going to be most important on the local community level.

Anyway, sorry for the rambling nature of my post, it's almost bedtime. I'll just close by saying the only way I can keep my sanity in facing Peak Oil is to make productive plans for the future while starting to take action now on a personal and local level. I just have to believe that even though this is going to be a hard thing for humanity that we are going to come out better on the other end.

[bobbyald]

From section 563 of APSO July’05 newsletter:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')onclusion: Expect a severe downturn in the world's economy over the next two years as Bilderbergers try to safeguard the remaining oil supply by taking money out of people's hands. In a recession or, at worst, a depression, the population will be forced to dramatically cut down their spending habits, thus ensuring a longer supply of oil to the world's rich as they try to figure out what to do.

(The Bilderberger organisation is semi-secret society of the World’s elite who meet periodically to discuss important issues)

[SHiFTY]

Wha? You are ranting about an unproven conspiracy theory (Bilderberg) on an unproven future event (peak oil)?

Time to take off the tinfoil hat. You post comes off as some kind of misplaced class warfare. Plenty of actual proven things going on if thats your thing. You can still buy gold and rural land you know.

The rich and powerful have always controlled things; we are relatively at the best time in history to make a difference...

[Cyrus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'o')n an unproven future event (peak oil)?

[bobbyald]

The reference to Bilderberger was from the source I quoted. I have no idea whether it’s a real group or not but the fact that the rich and powerful will manipulate the situation for their own benefit has the whole of history as supporting evidence.

Likewise Peak Oil is hardly unproven since many countries have already peaked. World peak is unproven (for now) but I wouldn’t bet against it.

[seahorse2]

Shifty,

You're contradicting yourself many times over. I only point this out bc you make an unwarranted personal attack with the "tinfoil hat" reference.

First, you accuse bobbyyald of "misplaced class warfare" when you end your own post by stating the "rich and powerful have always controlled things." Doesn't that imply class warfare?

You say the Bilderbergers is an unproven conspiracy theory. We all know it exists, the only question is, who and for what purpose. Maybe you can answer those two questions for us. I'll be waiting.

You also say that peak oil is an unproven future event. Even the most optimistic, say the IEA, agree that there will be a date called "peak oil." The disagreement between the optimist and pessimist is when this peak oil date will occur. So, its simply not accurate to say take the position that peak oil will not occur.

I'm also curious as to what it is you and I can do to make a difference? If we are living in the best of times, what is there to change, why, and how, exactly, are you and I going to do it.

So, please tell us who the Bilderbergers are and what they do, and, please let us know what you would like to change, and how, you and I are supposed to change it. Information and solutions to problems are needed, not name calling.

[Didga]

This quote is taken from the Association for the study of peak oil and gas newsletter complied by Colin Cambell. Interesting now the peak oil lobby groups are warning us about this event being malipulated by undemocratic bodies of the rich and powerful.

[aldente]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobbyald', '
')In 20 years time you will still be told that Peak Oil is not an issue and that our massively lower standards of living are due to the terrorists, the Arabs, wars, communism, China etc. but never, never the governments failure to act on Peak Oil.

[SHiFTY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')irst, you accuse bobbyyald of "misplaced class warfare" when you end your own post by stating the "rich and powerful have always controlled things." Doesn't that imply class warfare?

[themotie]

The Bilderbergers definitely exist, as a closed, not-open-to-the-public-or-media discussion club for the elite. Exactly how sinister the Bilderbergers are may be open to debate however. It is slightly worrisome though that these not democratically elected very powerful people discuss world affairs without any public insight at all. I can understand that they want to chat without being quoted in the press, but do you REALLY believe they only share stock tips?

[seahorse2]

Shifty,

I now understand where you are coming from and agree with what you are saying.

[Kickinthegob]

SHiFTY wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') firmly believe we are at a great point in history- most western countries have democracy enshrined in law. If the situation gest desperate enough, people will demand change from their elected reps one way or another. Organised labour can also be very persuasive.

[EdF]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kickinthegob', '.')..Going to make a difference are we? IMHO it will not make one iota of difference what any one person does in regards to peak oil. In case you have been living in a vacuum, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. Your statement is a contradiction...