by GHung » Fri 23 Sep 2016, 09:38:45
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'S')o guys what chance to you give for a major world-wide Pandemic to unfold within the next 10 years?
Who knows? My take is it will coincide with (be an artefact of) a general systemic decline. Costs will overwhelm healthcare systems. Vaccination programs will become less supported worldwide. Migrations will introduce diseases to new populations, begetting more migrations (rinse/repeat). Pandemics often coincide with (are a knock-on effect of) wars. Increased water and food scarcity will reduce resistance and the ability to respond affectively at scale, and declining sanitation will create new vectors (as Tanada mentions). Economic decline will inhibit overall ability of private companies to produce medications and vaccinations, and governments will be too taxed to respond at scale. Triage will ensue. All of this will be exacerbated by climate change and sea level rise even as the global depression worsens.
BTW: HIV-AIDs is already considered a "pandemic", even though most of us ignore that. Our future won't be one pandemic but a distributed coincidence of multiple disease outbreaks (typhus, cholera, malaria and other tropical diseases, influenza, tuberculosis, plague, ebola in some areas, measles where vaccinations become unavailable, more; choose your poison, and most are only being held at bay due to industrial-age measures. At least the diabetes/obesity epidemic will likely wane as diets will have less sugars and carbs.
7.34 billion hosts, and growing.