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New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 14:04:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '
')Although playing up large reserves at this point in time is bad form it is also dangerous to suggest there is nothing there. Doing so puts you in the camp of cranks.


In other words, the truth tends to lie in the middle of two extremes, and moderate veiwpoints are hard to come by on a worldsend like this.

The maddening aspect to this is that ETP fanbois continue to harp on about geologic depletion while simultaneously claiming that supply shortfalls will lead to prices going DOWN rather than UP. It makes no sense.

Where before this geologic depletion alarmism was meant to lead to PRICE SPIKES and eventual empty store-shelves and panic, now geologic depletion is supposed to lead to LOW PRICES with simultaneous empty store-shelves an panic.

Seems to me the former makes a hell of a lot more sense than the latter.

All this anal fixation on charts don't change how absurd the ETP cause-and-effect logic is.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 15:12:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'r')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'o')ckdoc, discoveries (not reserves, not even resources) had plummeted even during the high-price regime before 2014 Discoveries of new oil and gas reserves drop to 20-year low

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')epending on later revisions, 2014 may turn out to have been the worst year for finding oil and gas since 1952.

The slowdown in discoveries has been particularly pronounced for oil, suggesting that production from shales in the US and elsewhere, and from Opec, will play an increasingly important role in meeting growing global demand in the next decade.

New finds of oil and gas are likely to have been about 16bn barrels of oil equivalent in 2014, IHS estimates, making it the fourth consecutive year of falling volumes. That is the longest sustained decline since 1950.



Well first off 2014 already saw the rapid decline in prices and immediate response by oil companies cutting exploration budgets, it was a shortened year which is why I don't use it. 2013 was the last full year of oil and gas activity at higher prices.
More importantly my note was in response to your claim there had been no important discoveries whatsoever. Trying to change your argument now?

Also note that the WoodMac data only refers to conventional oil and gas and not additions of unconventional. That activity continued to increase in 2013 mainly in North America but also in Argentina, Russia, China and Algeria. More importantly many of the companies who were previously strictly conventional E&P companies such as Exxon, Chevron and Shell began switching their strategies in 2011 onwards, refocussing capital on unconventional E&P which would normally have been deployed in the search for conventional hydrocarbons.
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 16:17:43

It is amazing to me how quickly you shift your arguments and seemingly forget what it was you wrote one page up thread.

This is what you actually said
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') challenge you investment-scamming shills to name a new significant reserve addition. Just one. Come on your flacks, man/woman up and give us a new giant reserve by name, year of discovery. Even some little pikers would do.


To which I showed that there were indeed significant discoveries being made. You then changed the argument to ....oh I'm not interested in 16 bboe discovery because it doesn't mean anything. Get your story straight and stick to it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')veryone knows that (outside the majors and service companies) investment scams drives the oil industry. The same investment scams pay for advertising in said oil pubs. . . . where Oilfinder found is "discoveries" They are still mouthpieces for the oil industry. The new discoveries were all on paper. Fake investment opportunities.


Argumentum ad populum. You haven't a clue what you are talking about here. Looking at the non-majors who were successful from 2008 - 2013....Premier Oil, Cairn Energy, Kosmos Energy, RWE Dea, OMV, Santos, Lundin Petroleum, Murphy Oil, Tullow OIl, Apache, Repsol, Hess, Petronas, Talisman Energy, Noble Energy, Anadarko to name a few, are you claiming they are all scam companies? If so it will come as a major surprise to their investors who have made lots of money as these companies found and commissioned billions of barrels of oil equivalent over the years.
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 12 Sep 2016, 12:23:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'n')othing's shifted except your argument. It's shifty lol


Well, shifty is a small character flaw in this world of sheeple celebrating and cheering the death of our world's beautiful creatures of the sea, don't you think?

<edited to conceal Mr Pstarrs family members celebrating the death of ocean mammals>
Last edited by AdamB on Mon 12 Sep 2016, 12:50:37, edited 1 time in total.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 12 Sep 2016, 12:44:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'n')othing's shifted except your argument. It's shifty lol


Well, shifty is a small character flaw in this world of sheeple celebrating and cheering the death of our world's beautiful creatures of the sea, don't you think? Worse yet, I found this on Fakebook, where people go to pass these kinds of celebratory images of their joy about the destruction of our natural world.


We are biologists you fucktard.


We? I thought you were a guy? Who studied at the Stoner Complex thousands of miles from any ocean wildlife like that? That is a undoubtedly a nice lady in real life, full of her power and victory over the beautiful life of the sea...after its been brought to heel of course.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')We enjoy the fucking cycles of life and death.


and dominion over the earth and all the creatures in it as well...obviously. Come on pstarr, give us the bible chapter and verse you adhere to when imposing your will on the creatures of the sea! You must have it memorized!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Mortality measures indicate ecological statis or change. It is how baseline population is established. Stupid jealous fucktard, stalking my wife.

You have GOT to be kidding? I found this picture on Facebook, someone referenced it as just another horrifying example of what this world is coming to, and I must say it is quite compelling in its "picture worth a thousand words" component.

be honest now, are you saying you condone this sort of celebratory activity when it comes to animals of the oceans? I find it quite repelling, which is why it works so well as a visual. Admittedly, you have avoided my questions about your trying to save the planet by owning an EV, so this helps explain why you can't discuss anything about how you are helping those of us who care about such thing, CO2 emissions and our beautiful sea creatures.

<edited to conceal photographic evidence of Mr pstarr's family members celebrating the death of sea life>
Last edited by AdamB on Mon 12 Sep 2016, 12:51:54, edited 1 time in total.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 12 Sep 2016, 12:47:52

Upon second thought Mr pstarr, I am quite happy to remove this evidence of your hypocritical stand on such things as human sustainability and someone in your families happiness at the death of such beautiful creatures. If you want to pretend to continue to care about our eco-systems while members of your family contradict your claims in pictures across such a public forum as Facebook, you can continue doing so, I hate to expose a fraud who would prefer to keep pretending they are something else.

Just say the word and I will remove the post while I still can, there appears to be a limited amount of time edits are available to posters. And then you can go back to pretending that you care about the environment and all.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 12 Sep 2016, 13:27:18

Please. It's simply not necessary to use "Walrusgate" (or is it "SeaLionGate?" to discredit PStarr. There's plenty of less questionable material available to hoist him upon his own petard.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 12 Sep 2016, 14:26:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'P')lease. It's simply not necessary to use "Walrusgate" (or is it "SeaLionGate?" to discredit PStarr. There's plenty of less questionable material available to hoist him upon his own petard.


It raises some suspicious questions though doesn't it? He claims to be a biologist, having studied at a place called the Stoner Instructional Complex. And in the past he has said he edits papers, sort of like a professional grammar nazi? And if he ever did get out of the Stoner Instructional Complex to learn something, biology is his claim, why would he demonstrate a complete lack of understanding of science? Not a hint of critical thinking, objective analysis, no ability to learn from those posters here with direct industry and physical world science understanding, while he is falling for any spurious relationship that comes down the line, his cluelessness about even the most basic engineering topics like thermodynamics, and reacting very poorly indeed when it turns out that his family celebrates the death of sea lions as part of some weird religious dominion over the earth fundy belief system, flashing V for victory signs while standing like conquering heros on top of deceased sea mammals?

Of course he hoists himself by his own petard, with nearly every other post. He makes a claim, its wrong, and he reverse himself and claims something opposite on his next post. daily basis. The objective and critical thinking part hanging him up on nearly every post...well...that and a memory issue perhaps related to the Stoner Instructional Complex learning he claims.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 12 Sep 2016, 15:17:14

This is why I just set him to ignore. The one thing that bothers him more than disagreement is him not getting the attention he sorely craves.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby radon1 » Mon 12 Sep 2016, 17:01:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')dam, ennui, marmico, radon, can't identify new discoveries.


What do I have to do with "new discoveries"? Why didn't you put Lady Gaga and Lord of Darkness in your list of those assigned with "identification of new discoveries"? More childish trolling?
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 12 Sep 2016, 18:25:34

"Everyone knows that (outside the majors and service companies) investment scams drives the oil industry.". What I know for a fact: there have been many outright crooks who have cheated hundreds of private investors. I've dealt DIRERCTLY with a number of them...even helped the Texas Rangers arrest a couple of them 30 years ago.

But the vast majority (95%+) of the hundreds of wells I've participated in were drilled by joint ventures composed of sophisticated companies and not private investors. In fact I've only worked for one company during my 41 years that took private investors. Companies avoid them (and even very small independent companies) because they are typically a pain in the ass. LOL. The job is difficult enough without having to handhold "children".

But let's talk about public companies that have millions of unsophisticated investors called " sharerholders". But how is that dynamic and losing money any different then with all the other pubcos in the world? Each stock buyer is responsible for their decisions even if they don't know what the f*ck they are doing. And except for IPO's (the revenue going directly to the company) what about the VERY VAST majority of all monies used to buy into all the pubco shale players? Not one penny was given to the companies themselves...it all went to the previous stockholder. If a new stockholder got "cheated" then they weren't cheated by the oil company.

OTOH if a company loses money and the stock price falls? Well, that's the nature of the stock market, isn't it? Of course if the company violated govt regulations (such as making intentionally misleading claims) shareholders can use that to go after them. But you can't charge someone for making the wrong decisions.

So, with the exception of monies raised in public stock offerings, very little private investor monies were used to pay for the drilling of the shale wells. Money pissed away by folks buying stock in shale playing pubcos? Hell yes...sh*tloads. LOL Just like the sh*tloads lost in the dotcom, mortgage, home building, airline, etc. booms in the past.
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby SumYunGai » Mon 12 Sep 2016, 23:12:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('radon1', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')dam, ennui, marmico, radon, can't identify new discoveries.


What do I have to do with "new discoveries"? Why didn't you put Lady Gaga and Lord of Darkness in your list of those assigned with "identification of new discoveries"?

What are you talking about? The list already includes ennui and AdamB.
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 13 Sep 2016, 10:28:09

It's a sad fact of life that perseverance in any online debate gives the appearance of victory.

Therefore these battles always start to feel more like a filibustering than anyone else, and whoever layers on the last repetitive restatement of their assertion gets to showboat and claim victory.

That appears to be where we're headed. Those who have "a life", something I've been accused of not having, will eventually regain their sanity and pursue other more productive ventures than to keep playing rhetorical whack-a-mole with idiots.

Meanwhile, the patients will proceed to take over the asylum.

There's really nothing to be gained from day-to-day interaction with these people. It's not like if I clocked out for a week or a month that when I come back I will have missed some sort of insightful comment.

What matters is the flow of history and how it either confirms or trashes this or that theory.

Everything inbetween, the moment by moment sniping, is pointless.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 13 Sep 2016, 10:48:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')All they can do is mock because the facts speak for themselves: preciously few significant oil discoveries for several decades. While we burn 30 billion barrels a year, and discover a pitiful few billions per year


Your need to rewrite what peak oil is, and how it might happen AGAIN in the future because you got it so wrong LAST time is not the problem of others. Your inability to understand complex topics appears to be at the root of your denial. And in my rooting around on Fakebook for whatever other type of trickery you might be up to, I found a nice picture of you downing brewskies while what appears to be clear cut logging is going on behind you.

Cheering on the destruction of a local ecosystem with a buzz on being another one of those things normal activities that "biologists" do in their spare time?
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Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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