General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
by jedrider » Thu 23 Jun 2016, 19:54:42
PBS had a nice show about the American Passenger Pigeon that use to number in the Billions. They were wiped out to extinction in a mere 50 years. It's hard to conceive. They were obviously social animals that relied upon being in a large group, which made them easy targets. Our civilization is sort of like this, requiring large groups to provide our sustenance. There may always be oil somewhere, but there also must be sufficient amount to maintain our sophisticated infrastructure. Sort of like the weak link.
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by ennui2 » Fri 24 Jun 2016, 00:02:58
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'A')dam, when all is said and done there IS still a geological limit.
Of course there is.
Nice to see you concede that point, since the book you referred people to a while back seemed to suggest there is effectively no limit.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Climate change being one of the current majority favorites I believe.
It's one of the favorites because it's a genuine issue, and one which is in many ways more intractable than peak oil. We only have one common biosphere and if we wreck it, we're screwed.
I know sometimes I come across in the peak-oil threads as a "someone will think of something" corny because I see certain kinds of breakout technology on the way. However, I see none that will significantly change the AGW outlook. It would require some sort of fusion powered terraforming stations to convert CO2 into O and huge stores of carbon-black or something. But there are other threads for that topic.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') Why now and not X plus years from now? The fact that we do not know the exact date does not diminish the enormity of the problem.
Does it make a difference if you are killed, or your children ,or your great great grandchildren?
It does, actually, because humans always discount the future.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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by AdamB » Fri 24 Jun 2016, 12:47:53
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'A')dam, when all is said and done there IS still a geological limit.
Of course there is.
Nice to see you concede that point, since the book you referred people to a while back seemed to suggest there is effectively no limit.
Only if you paid attention to the title, and didn't read the book. There is quite a difference between geologic limits to hydrocarbon resources, discussed quite well by the EIA working paper I have been pondering and referencing as of late, and ENERGY, which is a different animal altogether. At this point in our technological devleopment, there is no "effective" energy limit because we do not have the capability to build a Dyson Sphere. When we reach that point, we will have likely bumped into the "energy" limit of our solar system, as compared to just the boiled carbon scum we use to generate power.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Climate change being one of the current majority favorites I believe.
It's one of the favorites because it's a genuine issue, and one which is in many ways more intractable than peak oil. We only have one common biosphere and if we wreck it, we're screwed.
It is absolutely genuine. Just as it was when the indigenous peoples of the Bering land bridge watched their homes go under the rising seas. Right now, current climate change hasn't been able to uproot real estate owners along the barrier islands of the outer banks. The speed at which climate change is..changing...things isn't near as cool, quick, or catastrophic as peak oil. So while it can substitute as a trigger for doom fantasy role playing, it really doesn't have the same kind of kick.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '
')I know sometimes I come across in the peak-oil threads as a "someone will think of something" corny because I see certain kinds of breakout technology on the way. However, I see none that will significantly change the AGW outlook. It would require some sort of fusion powered terraforming stations to convert CO2 into O and huge stores of carbon-black or something. But there are other threads for that topic.
No terraforming stations required really. But basalts come in handy. So sure, there is always some techno-wizardry of some sort or another. But that doesn't change climate change, only CO2 emissions. While related, they are not the same.
Most recent CO2 techno-wizardry!
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... eakthrough
Old ideas reaching fruition today. These ideas were poo-pooed back in the PO days, except by those who didn't fall for peak oil because they knew these kinds of things were coming down the pike and now...they are here!
http://saskpowerccs.com/ccs-projects/bo ... e-project/
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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by StarvingLion » Fri 24 Jun 2016, 14:20:13
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;...who didn't fall for peak oil because they knew these kinds of things were coming down the pike and now...they are here!"
Indeed they are here...here it is...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... -to-leave/"Asked why people voted for Brexit, he said:
"People are angry. All over the world they're angry."Adam will soon replace the departed David Cameron with his message of....
Techno-utopian Pseudoscience Adams first speech: "Shut up or I'll spray you with rubber bullets..., no you won't be getting any V10 Lamborghini's ...but there is this pathetic worthless piece of shit called a solar cell...thats all we have left...deal with it"
No, wait, thats my speech, ...here is Adam: "La la la la la land,,, here we go, to the land of oz with our dreamin"...
Outcast_Searcher is a fraud.
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by AdamB » Sat 25 Jun 2016, 09:02:37
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;...who didn't fall for peak oil because they knew these kinds of things were coming down the pike and now...they are here!"
Indeed they are here...here it is...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... -to-leave/"Asked why people voted for Brexit, he said:
"People are angry. All over the world they're angry." People have always been angry, for various reasons, and to various degrees. Just ask a Ross Perot voter from a quarter century back. And peak oil was about doom and gloom, lack of fuel for tractors, dieoff and high prices and lower production.
Anger is easy. Just shut down the internet at any hotel and watch what happens next.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '
')Adams first speech: "Shut up or I'll spray you with rubber bullets..., no you won't be getting any V10 Lamborghini's ...but there is this pathetic worthless piece of shit called a solar cell...thats all we have left...deal with it"
Adam doesn't own any rubber bullets. Only hardball and jacketed hollow point.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '
')No, wait, thats my speech, ...here is Adam: "La la la la la land,,, here we go, to the land of oz with our dreamin"...
I never said things were peachy keen. Only that peak oil doesn't work so well as a trigger for the doom fantasy league like it did a decade ago, and climate change moves too slowly to substitute.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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by vtsnowedin » Sat 25 Jun 2016, 10:55:27
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 's')nip....
I never said things were peachy keen. Only that peak oil doesn't work so well as a trigger for the doom fantasy league like it did a decade ago, and climate change moves too slowly to substitute.
I don't know about that. All it would take is drought that cuts one of the worlds major grain producers harvest by half to get to a SHTF moment.
Our climate troubles are (allegedly) caused by fossil energy use and our financial house of cards rest on investment to procure and use fossil fuel energy. Break any leg on that three legged stool and we are on the floor wondering what happened.
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by StarvingLion » Sat 25 Jun 2016, 16:14:08
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 's')nip....
I never said things were peachy keen. Only that peak oil doesn't work so well as a trigger for the doom fantasy league like it did a decade ago, and climate change moves too slowly to substitute.
I don't know about that. All it would take is drought that cuts one of the worlds major grain producers harvest by half to get to a SHTF moment.
Our climate troubles are (allegedly) caused by fossil energy use and our financial house of cards rest on investment to procure and use fossil fuel energy. Break any leg on that three legged stool and we are on the floor wondering what happened.
You're both in denial. We're too broke to develop the remaining low EROEI shit oil, and too broke to outbid the remaining high EROEI oil in around Russia and Iran. The only other option is the total fantasy world of SUBSTITUTION.
The entire Peak Oil narrative is wrong. There is no decline, just instant collapse.
The mindless Global warming malarkey is a delusion to avoid reality...that instant economic collapse is HERE RIGHT NOW. Not tomorrow or in 20 years.
NOW.
Outcast_Searcher is a fraud.
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by vtsnowedin » Sat 25 Jun 2016, 17:06:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '.').that instant economic collapse is HERE RIGHT NOW. Not tomorrow or in 20 years.
NOW.
OK but can I fix supper for the misses before I load all the guns and dig us fox holes?
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by AdamB » Sat 25 Jun 2016, 18:30:19
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 's')nip....
I never said things were peachy keen. Only that peak oil doesn't work so well as a trigger for the doom fantasy league like it did a decade ago, and climate change moves too slowly to substitute.
I don't know about that. All it would take is drought that cuts one of the worlds major grain producers harvest by half to get to a SHTF moment.
True. And it has already happened. And if you widen your perspective a bit, you can just see how those major grain producing areas were once something like, say, a shallow sea, or a desert, and climate change made them into the productive region they are today. So climate change will one day make them less productive, as they were once before?
Bring in the new boss..same as the old boss....
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') Our climate troubles are (allegedly) caused by fossil energy use and our financial house of cards rest on investment to procure and use fossil fuel energy. Break any leg on that three legged stool and we are on the floor wondering what happened.
Are climate troubles are (allegedly) caused by people. Plenty of them, and wanting an easier life than living on a farm tilling the land behind a horse and plow. And being clever monkeys, we came up with all sorts of ways to turn our cleverness to making our lives easier, the transmutation from icky stinky smelly geologic scum fecal matter into power generation being one. But it isn't the fuel's fault for emitting CO2, it is the humans fault. Blaming the fossil fuel is like blaming a spoon for someone getting fat.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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by AdamB » Sat 25 Jun 2016, 18:48:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '
')You're both in denial.
Pragmatists are rarely in denial.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '
') We're too broke to develop the remaining low EROEI shit oil, and too broke to outbid the remaining high EROEI oil in around Russia and Iran. The only other option is the total fantasy world of SUBSTITUTION.
We are already developing oils that you appear to not like, your happiness over their use having NOTHING to do with their use, yesterday, today and tomorrow. You are attempting to claim that the EV can't be mass produced, after it already has, and people have them sitting in their driveways. Sorry, but this horse is already out of the barn, and the IMPORTANT point you appear to be missing is that the oil companies, RIGHT NOW, are going about making the development of shales and tar sands cheaper, because the must, or die. Some will die. But not all. And those that survive will buy up those who have, and suddenly what was a $20/BOE cost of operations becomes a $18/BOE cost of operations.
And the EIA published a study recently saying just this. So you can deny the reality around you, and call other people names, but all we are doing is examining the bread crumbs, where you say no such bread crumbs exist. Tell it to the US authority on energy statistics and analysis.
https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/drilling/$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '
')The entire Peak Oil narrative is wrong. There is no decline, just instant collapse.
That was once the claim, yes. One version of it here.
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2005- ... l-nutshellAgain, after peak oil happened a decade or so back, note past tense and year on the book here:
https://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/instant collapse is not what happened.
May I recommend a MS newspaper, or better yet an image of the current glut as expressed in US storage levels at unbelievable levels?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '
')The mindless Global warming malarkey is a delusion to avoid reality...that instant economic collapse is HERE RIGHT NOW. Not tomorrow or in 20 years.
NOW.
Latest global GDP numbers and estimates:
May I recommend a rethink on who is in denial? All of this information is out there, just waiting for the questioning mind to separate the preconceived subjective hope, dream or fantasy trigger event from reality.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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by ralfy » Sat 25 Jun 2016, 20:02:01
The global economy has been experiencing weak growth for around a decade because of high oil production costs coupled with fallout from financial speculation. Other factors to consider include volatile commodity prices and financial markets, low BDI, and diminishing returns in capex.
Global warming did not "substitute" but added to the world's problems, contributing to that weak growth by decreasing GDP through protection and effects of damage from natural disasters. And then there's environmental damage.
All of these points have been reported and discussed in detail in the forum. Given that, one can avoid having to explain the obvious repeatedly by using the ignore function.
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by ennui2 » Sat 25 Jun 2016, 21:30:33
That article from 2005 is instructive, however. It's boilerplate hard-crash doomerism.
It's telling that the only person flogging doom at that level is StarvingLion, who is probably an undiagnosed paranoid schizophrenic, or at the very least, some form of borderline personality disorder.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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by AdamB » Sun 26 Jun 2016, 01:18:09
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'T')he global economy has been experiencing weak growth for around a decade because of high oil production costs coupled with fallout from financial speculation.
High oil production costs (production costs not being near as high as capital costs) aren't the issue for the 2008 recession, and while growth might have been weak,that isn't COLLAPSE, and it was still GROWTH. Might have been costly growth, based on the way it was achieved, but that is yet to be seen Certainly what Greece did with their windfall (paying bureaucrats pensions and salaries) was different than what the US did (energy extraction with a life of production more than a quarter century on a well basis).
And discovering along the way that bell shaped curves aren't worth squat. All hail the sine wave of oil production!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')Global warming did not "substitute" but added to the world's problems, contributing to that weak growth by decreasing GDP through protection and effects of damage from natural disasters. And then there's environmental damage.
Global warming DID substitute, as a new trigger for gloom in the doomer fantasy game playing league. Because oil gluts and low prices are tough to sell to anyone, as the natural consequences of peak oil.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')All of these points have been reported and discussed in detail in the forum. Given that, one can avoid having to explain the obvious repeatedly by using the ignore function.
Peak oil now being higher production and cheaper prices have also been reported on this forum. Given that, is there any reason why you appear to indicate that peak oil was a BAD thing?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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by ennui2 » Mon 27 Jun 2016, 11:47:30
This link is relevant to the thread topic, methinks.
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/201 ... y-4-travelWhither peak-oil? Oh, right, ETP. Oil is cheap because of EROEI, which means GDP should be weak too, which means people shouldn't have any money to go on road-trips, right? Something doesn't add up.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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by StarvingLion » Mon 27 Jun 2016, 12:25:43
Rosneft BANKRUPT!!!Rosneft is an integrated oil company majority owned by the Government of Russia. [but we're currently selling off assets because we are BROKE]
EVERY SINGLE INTEGRATED OIL COMPANY ON EARTH IS BANKRUPT and Adam goes LalalalalalaLand...Everything peachy...Cheap oil for all........what a bleeping delusional dreamer....UK Bankrupt....EU Bankrupt...Adam LalalalalaLandIts all good...
AI war on the consumer....Adam Lalalalalalland...everything is fine.
The entire S&P 500 will be liquidated within 2 years and Adam Lalalalalalaland everything is A-OK....An asteroid could hit the planet tomorrow...Adam Lalalalalalalalalalalalala....all the bullshit tech is coming to save you!!!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -to-weigh-11-billion-rosneft-sale-to-china-and-india
Outcast_Searcher is a fraud.
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by StarvingLion » Mon 27 Jun 2016, 12:39:38
The FED Ponzi Machine is printing $100 billion every single month. The ECB is printing trillions a year to keep that negative growth zombie world afloat.
THE GREEN COMMIE SHIT OF "RENEWABLES" IS ALREADY DEAD
THE ENTIRE S&P 500 WILL BE LIQUIDATED JUST LIKE ROSNEFT ASSETS
ITS GOING TO COLLAPSE AT ANY TIME NOW
You're all headed to slave labor or the AI firing squad or the real firing squad.
THE COAL AND OIL EROEI EROSION MONSTER IS RIPPING YOUR FACES OFF
Outcast_Searcher is a fraud.
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by ennui2 » Mon 27 Jun 2016, 17:02:13
StarvingLion, read it again and weep, in a large font.
Cheapest Gas Prices in a Decade to Fuel Record July 4 Travel
The truth hurts, don't it?
I know you won't let those words actually pass through your brain, but just to give it the old college try, let's make them red.
Cheapest Gas Prices in a Decade to Fuel Record July 4 Travel
BTW, you can't even appeal to authority properly. Your link is a 404 error.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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by AdamB » Wed 29 Jun 2016, 23:34:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '
')THE GREEN COMMIE SHIT OF "RENEWABLES" IS ALREADY DEAD
Passed a piece of main column and two blades on the interstate just yesterday. Brand new, not headed to a salvage yard. So no...if they are still building them, they aren't dead.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '
')THE ENTIRE S&P 500 WILL BE LIQUIDATED JUST LIKE ROSNEFT ASSETS
Worse has been claimed (and didn't happen), remember the Olduvai Gorge claptrap from a decade ago?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '
')ITS GOING TO COLLAPSE AT ANY TIME NOW
THIS one has been around since...Malthus! Or the Luddites! It is just so...blase nowadays.
Since the LAST time people said this, the peak oil collapse of 2005 perhaps, an individual has had enough time to collect a college degree, get a job, buy a house, make a MINT off the market since the recovery in 2009, sell the house and make another mint, pop out a few kids, have a decent start on their 401k, I mean REALLY, ANY TIME NOW? AGAIN? How many "ANY TIME NOWS!" can any one person stand!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '
')You're all headed to slave labor or the AI firing squad or the real firing squad.
Fedghettos are so...LATOC. Now THERE is a collapse for you, the collapse of collapse blogs. Collapsenet collapsed, Latoc collapsed, FTW collapsed, maybe we should focus on THOSE?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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by ennui2 » Thu 30 Jun 2016, 17:31:53
Again I urge people to just ignore StarvingLion. Out of all the posters here, his analysis is the most disconnected from reality, and if you engage him then the board will be nothing but people playing whack-a-mole against his boiler-plate end-is-nigh-ism.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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by Whatever » Fri 08 Jul 2016, 01:53:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'A')gain I urge people to just ignore StarvingLion. Out of all the posters here, his analysis is the most disconnected from reality, and if you engage him then the board will be nothing but people playing whack-a-mole against his boiler-plate end-is-nigh-ism.
Those who choose to ignore StarvingLion do so at their own peril. Out of almost all the posters here, StarvingLion is the most accurate poster when it comes to rapid collapse. He is right about the nigh part, too.
"The entire Peak Oil narrative is wrong. There is no decline, just instant collapse."~StarvingLion
That is what I have been saying for years.
---Futilitist
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