[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'F')or those of you who have not been following my blogs, I thought his one might tickle you. Courtesy of the Einsteins at ar15.com


Pearls of Wisdom on Peak Oil

Today, I have put together a blog that is the cumulative utterances of a group of people who just don’t quite get it as yet. The only editing I have done is for spelling and pronouns; otherwise, it is unaltered.

I think the whole “Peak Oilâ€

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GD', '
')More drilling! All our problems solved!

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'G')reat. Someone else has joined the "It's not that bad" club.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', 'I')f those statements weren’t so sad, scary and pathetic they’d be hilarious.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('k_semler', 'I') can sum it up with just these brief descriptions of all of the points:

1. We can use the "Last Man Standing" policy to ensure our supply.
2. We should drill more.
3. Undying faith in technology and human ingenutity as our saviour.

No new arguments here that have not been refuted before.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'T')he really weird thing is the attitude "something will come along"....

[ennui2]

I would agree with AdamB's armchair diagnosis, but only up to a point.

We've been tracking the LTG chart pretty closely for the last 40 years or so. And if that keeps up, we will start to see some of these charts turn negative, most importantly, population. The chart has been decoupled from Hubbert's curve (circle the oil drum calling peak around 2005) for some time, but I think the next couple decades are key here.

So I wouldn't totally shrug off doom. It's more of the big LTG picture that seems to describe what's going on.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')dam, neither chart reflects reality.

[Shaved Monkey]

a political, strategic game at play glut
or a deflationary glut.

[ennui2]

If the hair were being split any thinner it would be thinner than a carbon nano-tube. A glut is a glut is a glut. I know people here hate to admit it, but you guys spend so much time talking about grief cycles. Learn to accept when doom doesn't happen on schedule.

[Shaved Monkey]

A glut is not just a glut, cause and duration are massively important.
Being able to predict how wide the plateau is and how steep the cliff is at the edge of the plateau are more important than buying a new SUV and pretending the new oil glut world is flat

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shaved Monkey', 'A') glut is not just a glut, cause and duration are massively important.
Being able to predict how wide the plateau is and how steep the cliff is at the edge of the plateau are more important than buying a new SUV and pretending the new oil glut world is flat

[EdwinSm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's not that bad

[KaiserJeep]

Edwin, M. King Hubbert really did know what he was talking about in 1956: http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf

No, he did not predict every nuance of the real ingenuity of mankind when confronted with falling production from conventional wells. He did not predict "tight" oil, oil shales, gas-to-liquids, etc. other than in the most general sense - and we are still in the period he called "the jagged peaks" when alternate hydrocarbon sources are being exploited for energy. But for as little data as he had, and without a computer to aide his calculations, he made remarkably accurate predictions. The source of many of the "inaccuracies" in his published data are the manipulations of OPEC, the unanticipated world population surge, and the rising demand for oil fuels in China and India and the Third World.

Some of the PO.com members have been anticipating the doom that still hasn't quite arrived since 1982 or so - there was an earlier forum called "The Oil Drum" which still can be found in archival form at http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9085.

It is becoming apparent (to me at least) that the World As We Know It (often referred to around here as BAU which stands for "business as usual") is more complex than Hubbert or anybody else could model in precise detail. The primary wild card in anybody's peak-related calculation is human behavior. But it is also apparent that TEOTWAWKI is upon us, but will take decades to arrive, barring "hot" resource wars.

May I recommend for your reading enjoyment another online work:
https://ecoartscotland.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/kunstler-the_long_emergency1.pdf
...which I first read online, and then went back and purchased. I carry both that and "King" Hubbert's seminal writing around with me on my E-reader.

FWIW, I am pretty sure that the Oil Peak (for conventional wells) occurred in the period 2008-2012. But the substitution of alternative hydrocarbons is blurring the impact of this. However, the meaning of "oil peak" is that half the available resource has been consumed. With consumption at such incredibly high levels, and the world economy sliding slowly into the crapper, destroying as it goes the demand for hydrocarbons, the duration of the second half of the hydrocarbon consumption curve is highly debateable.

With the primary factor in duration being human behavior, we simply don't know in any detail when the world as we know it will end. But I for one subscribe to Kunstler's "slow crash" scenario as most likely. That really is both a satisfactory state of things and a way to live your life going forward - because if we did actually possess a calculus of human behavior, we would know IF the world will end, and WHEN. And then I believe we would immediately destroy ourselves in anticipation of the end.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')dam, neither chart reflects reality. And what are you going on about?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shaved Monkey', 'A') glut is not just a glut, cause and duration are massively important.

[EdwinSm]

Since we are talking of 'brilliant' modeling, here is part of the summary from the IEA World Energy Model 2004 I see that they were right on with the prediction of GDP growth and prices - with the current low prices of oil being around the high expected for 2030. Maybe they should have hired Rockman to learn about the futility of such estimates

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he key assumptions underpinning the projections of the 2004 edition include:

GDP is assumed to grow worldwide by an average 3.2% per year over the period 2002 to 2030.

The world's population is assumed to expand by 1% per year, from 6.2 billion in 2002 to over 8 billion in 2030.

The average IEA crude oil import price is assumed to fall back from current highs to $22 (in year-2000 dollars) in 2006. It will remain flat until 2010 and then begin to rise steadily to $29 in 2030.

Natural gas prices will move broadly in line with oil prices. Steam coal prices will average around $40/tonne through to 2010 and to rise very slowly thereafter, to $44 in 2030. In the WEO-2004 High Oil Price Case, the crude oil price is assumed to average $35 over the projection period (2003-2030).

[Tanada]

Here is my recent Pearl of Wisdom,

In the current world market every time the world price of oil falls below $30/bbl the smaller OPEC players and/or Russia talk about cutting production to drive it back up.