by vox_mundi » Fri 05 Feb 2016, 22:09:35
There's a chance Venezuela's Zika outbreak is worse than Brazil's $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Julio Castro, a professor of tropical epidemiology at the Central University of Venezuela, says he believed between 250,000 and 400,000 people had been infected with Zika in Venezuela. He calculated those numbers by feeding the government’s limited official data and other reports of unexplained fever cases into epidemiological and mathematical models, he said.
Other Venezuelan experts, including some from the independent Network to Defend National Epidemiology, have come up with similar projections.
If those numbers are correct, that would mean Venezuela, with its 33 million people, could have a higher per-capita rate of Zika infection than Brazil, which has 205 million people, and where officials estimate there have been between 500,000 and 1.5 million infections.
Castro added that there are other reasons to believe that Zika is several times more prevalent in Venezuela than Brazil. They include the fact that Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that carries the disease, is present in 16to 20 percent of Venezuelan homes but just 4-5 percent of Brazilian homes, he said.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')uniades Urbina-Medina, president of the Venezuelan Pediatric Society, agreed, warning that he feared Venezuela could be on the brink of a more concentrated wave of microcephalic births than Brazil has witnessed.
“We can expect the first births from mothers potentially exposed to Zika in March and April and right now, we simply have no idea what is coming,” he said. “That lack of information and transparency [about the number of Zika infections] would be unthinkable in a serious country. Of course, I am extremely concerned.”
Urbina-Medina also cited the government’s dropping of its weekly public health report, which included current numbers of cases of infectious diseases. “Remarks from officials every now and then, on an ad hoc basis, are not enough for us to be able to address this problem,” the doctor said.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Urbina-Medina says that, with the exception of a single government hospital in Caracas, Venezuela even lacks the supplies to test for Zika and give definitive diagnoses.
Just as worryingly, the doctor says a shortage of new machines and parts to repair old ones means many hospitals in Venezuela are unable to carry out ultrasound scans to determine the health of babies in the womb.
“Venezuela is not in a position to address public health crises,” Urbina-Medina said. “Right now, there is a national deficit of 70,000 intensive care beds. The future is very dark for our patients, and even for our doctors as they are especially exposed to Zika.”