[GHung]

Despite massive central bank interventions, worldwide, post 2008, it seems growth is stalling. While consumption seems to be peaking, many indications are that the global economy, overall, is reaching hard limits. Hard to find any positive growth aspects in the beginning of 2016:

Commodities are crashing, being led by oil. Many analysts predict this to continue into the indefinite future.

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) is at an all-time low. Not much stuff moving around the globe.

Equity markets around the world are continuing their downward trend.

China is clearly struggling to maintain their growth rate with less-than-stellar results.

Debt levels, especially public debt in the more advanced economies, continues to rise to unprecedented highs. Debt to GDP in many countries is over 100%.

The climate is clearly changing, and world response is, so far, impotent. The ecosphere is in severe decline.

The political class is clearly clueless, either about our collective situation, or as to how to respond to our vast collection of predicaments. The electorate is deluded and clueless for the most part; many seeming to be suffering from anxiety born of cognitive dissonance.

Is "Limits To Growth" proving its value as a prediction of things to come? I propose a we compile a score-card of positive and negative trends; an evaluation of where we are and where we're headed. Links, charts, graphs, etc., welcome.

[Ibon]

It's hard to tell what possible shenanigans are left to put into play to extend this. Just don't underestimate the inertia to keep BAU on a steady course. Is the peak oil story an accurate analogy where we have extended the plateau for years with fracking etc. Is there a financial equivalent that will result in an extended period of fiat illusion or will we see an abrupt correction?

When a severe correction wipes out disposable income will I have to return to raising cattle here when the stream of tourists dry up?

How many of us are left with these existential questions of what we will all do in the event of a severe contraction?

Maybe raising sheep for the small Arab and Palestinian population here that run the duty free businesses at the border. Their sorrow will require many sacrificial lambs?

Enjoy each day as if the abrupt correction was tomorrow.

Save all your nickels and dimes in jars.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'S')ave all your nickels and dimes in jars.

[dolanbaker]

No, the contraction hasn't started yet, but the growth is still slowing down and is slowing to levels that are having really serious consequences for the financial system that is hard coded to operate with growth.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '
')Walmart closing 269 stores.

[Newfie]

I don't know if we are on the verg of a contraction or not.as always I think things are too chaotic to really know until later. The fog of war and all that. I do think it's a good possibility.

Thanks for posting this LTG chart. IIRC they said that once one of the major tracking trends starts to break bad in a big way, then their model fails, it can't track the backside of the trends. Things get too chaotic. Do you know if that is true?

[Pops]

Yeah Newf, Fog O War.
I thought, it is hard to tell the tide in a storm

Just my knee jerk but I think we're due for an extended period of stagnation while governments try to rescue the ownership from their excesses, ostensibly by modulating the Great Moderation.

The US is due for a recession, but that is just BAU.
Ditto the commodities bust; overinvestment, glut, consolidation... nothing new.
Those are enough to worry and plan for because it seems to me the cycle has been short-circuited the last couple of times. I think the Great Moderation has actually been the great postponement.

The boom these last several decades has been the payoff of globalization, computerization, communication, containerization. China and the BRICs were like a farm kid in town for his first payday, spent all they had then borrowed more to build a bunch of ghost cities. That's yer peak demand.

Can't tell much from here about future capacity, never could really. WAG is we'll have a further period in Zombietown before we have an idea of what limits may or may not have been crossed
.

[Cog]

No recession yet in the US. No spike in unemployment and 4th quarter 2015 was positive. Relax. Just some stock market hijinks. Nothing to worry about.

[shortonoil]

"Despite massive central bank interventions, worldwide, post 2008, it seems growth is stalling."

By our calculation world petroleum production will decline by 11 mb/d with 36 months. That will wipe out 4.4% of the world's economy. The world is now in a deflationary spiral from which there can be no escape. At what point the world's integrated global economy comes unglued is the now the real question. We will know when some people find food on the selves, and others don't.

[ennui2]

"By our calculation world petroleum production will decline by 11 mb/d with 36 months. That will wipe out 4.4% of the world's economy."

I wish someone would bank some of shortonoil's specific predictions so we can call him to task on them if they turn out to be bogus.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'I') wish someone would bank some of shortonoil's specific predictions so we can call him to task on them if they turn out to be bogus.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')i]"Despite massive central bank interventions, worldwide, post 2008, it seems growth is stalling."

By our calculation world petroleum production will decline by 11 mb/d with 36 months. That will wipe out 4.4% of the world's economy. The world is now in a deflationary spiral from which there can be no escape. At what point the world's integrated global economy comes unglued is the now the real question. We will know when some people find food on the selves, and others don't.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')i]"Despite massive central bank interventions, worldwide, post 2008, it seems growth is stalling."

By our calculation world petroleum production will decline by 11 mb/d with 36 months. That will wipe out 4.4% of the world's economy. The world is now in a deflationary spiral from which there can be no escape. At what point the world's integrated global economy comes unglued is the now the real question. We will know when some people find food on the selves, and others don't.

[dolanbaker]

Well, unless someone in the ME is lying about reserves, they'll just continue plodding along for another decade or so with a similar output as today. What is changing though is, as Saudi Arabia is dropping the fuel subsidy, the increase in their internal consumption is likely to slow down and maybe stop rising completely. China appears to be just filling the tanks while it's cheap.

[onlooker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')aving really serious consequences for the financial system that is hard coded to operate with growth.

[dohboi]

Dow Jones down nearly 300 points today, about 2 and a half percent. Lots of volatility right now.

May be fog.

It may be the fog that keep us from noticing that we are going over a cliff...

Too soon to tell.

[Cog]

Its not a matter of if the DOW will zoom back up to the 18,000 level but when.

[MonteQuest]

I think the real contraction started in the early 70's with we went off the gold standard and the first oil shocks occurred. Since that time, GDP has only grown due to increased debt. Now, more debt doesn't grow GDP, it hinders it. I have a link to a study I will post when I find it again. But this chart alone speak volumes.