[M_B_S]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurberma ... -peak-oil/

Conventional oil production peaked in January 2011 at 86.2 mmbpd unconventional oil 2015?

=>
oil-barrel-pyramid-model-by-m-b-s-peak-2011-t33970.html#p550313
PEAK OIL!
q.e.d.

M_B_S

[dolanbaker]

It will be interesting to see how this affects future investments in oil production, after all Forbes readers are generally people who would make these decisions.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'I')t will be interesting to see how this affects future investments in oil production, after all Forbes readers are generally people who would make these decisions.

[Pops]

peak-t71841-60.html#p1288271

[dolanbaker]

I thought I'd seen that story somewhere already.

[Pops]

Yeah but it wasn't in ALL CAPS!
lol

[GHung]

I just did a search of the Oil Drum archives, going back 5-6 years, and it's remarkable how many commenters expected a long undulating plateau in oil production. " ...that Peak Oil seems to be shaping up into Peak Plateau" (2013); "Production may have already peaked, but I think it will plateau and remain fairly constant for a while" (2011); "All I can see is plateaus and peaks...." (2011).....

Seems some over at TOD weren't so wrong after all.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '(')mods: if the search function worked better or I knew how to use it better, then oh well . . . . is there search function help?)

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', 'I') just did a search of the Oil Drum archives, going back 5-6 years, and it's remarkable how many commenters expected a long undulating plateau in oil production. " ...that Peak Oil seems to be shaping up into Peak Plateau" (2013); "Production may have already peaked, but I think it will plateau and remain fairly constant for a while" (2011); "All I can see is plateaus and peaks...." (2011).....

Seems some over at TOD weren't so wrong after all.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'I')t will be interesting to see how this affects future investments in oil production, after all Forbes readers are generally people who would make these decisions.

[ennui2]

Doomerism as any sort of movement lost steam in the fall of 2008. The closest thing we have to mainstream doomerism is the climate change movement which is comprised mostly of bright-green libs ala Graeme. Maybe George Monbiot is the most mainstream doomer these days as far as how big his bully pulpit is and how much of a killjoy his message is, but again, it's environment and not energy. OK, maybe the Pope, with his anti-capitalistic message, but he's not talking about peak oil either.

You're bound to have people professing doom, even serious sounding ones. But there aren't many. This guy is no Matt Simmons. Let's see this guy write a book and get in front of the camera on CNN and CNBC. If he really thinks we've got a serious problem he'll do more than write an isolated editorial.

[jesus_of_suburbia]

When are the two of you just going to get it over with and hate fuck each other?

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'D')oomerism as any sort of movement lost steam in the fall of 2008. The closest thing we have to mainstream doomerism is the climate change movement which is comprised mostly of bright-green libs ala Graeme. Maybe George Monbiot is the most mainstream doomer these days as far as how big his bully pulpit is and how much of a killjoy his message is, but again, it's environment and not energy. OK, maybe the Pope, with his anti-capitalistic message, but he's not talking about peak oil either.

You're bound to have people professing doom, even serious sounding ones. But there aren't many. This guy is no Matt Simmons. Let's see this guy write a book and get in front of the camera on CNN and CNBC. If he really thinks we've got a serious problem he'll do more than write an isolated editorial.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')I think if you believe that concern about climate change (i.e. AGW) isn't becoming seriously mainstream, you're deluding yourself.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'A')ll of this stuff has been on a gradually declining trend for years now.

[GHung]

ennui said; "You are misreading it. By 2011, according to TOD's logic, peak was already 6 years in the past. So it's not that TOD were correct,..."

What would be incorrect is your assertion that there was a consensus at TOD. Opinions there ran the gamut regarding peak/no peak, and the implications. Your saying otherwise is as silly as those of you who claim "America this" or "America that".

[shortonoil]

Peak Oil is a statistical function. Without doing more work on this than is necessary, we can say with a 97.5% probability that Peak will have occurred if for two consecutive years production has fallen by at least 1.65 mb/d from the previous year. That is based on 49 years of data taken from the EIA; which is about the best that there is. Production fell by more than 1.65 mb/d per year four times over that period, and it fell by a lesser margin from its previous year 14 times over that same period.

To be 99.5% sure that peak had occurred in any year production would have to fall by 5.001 mb/d for that year. Using volumetric data, Peak will not likely be known with any reasonable level of confidence, for at least two years after it has occurred. Use of an energy metric is not so constrained by such limitations.