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When do we fall off the undulating plateau? Pt 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 02 Oct 2015, 15:17:25

Pstarr, that was an honest question. Did you link to the wrong article? I could be mistaken but you seem to have quoted one article and linked to another.
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Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby ennui2 » Fri 02 Oct 2015, 17:48:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')right now I am working on irrigation at my fortress doomstead. It's not an easy task, as each garden bed is wired with C4 explosives and guarded by many guard dogs.


Forgive my French, but decide whether you are only here to yank people's chains or make a damn point because this kind of filler isn't informative in the least. Everything you say seems to be intended to mock and belittle a wildly exaggerated (and inaccurate) straw-man representation of everyone else. I feel like I've got a better perspective on this because I stepped away from it for a while. You've been knee-deep in doom for so long it seems like it's completely destroyed your ability to communicate with others in a respectful manner, including other doomers, because we don't frame things exactly as you've framed things, which, apparently, isn't going to change no matter how much data conflicts with your narrative.
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Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby ennui2 » Fri 02 Oct 2015, 19:14:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'P')erhaps if you would stop calling me a 'doomer'


If it walks like a duck, it's a duck.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')But seriously, do you really believe that geological petroleum depletion is "narrative."


Your narrative isn't just "geological petroleum depletion". That's about as generic as can be. Your narrative is "everything from 2008 onward, even ultra low prices, is the outcome of PEAK OIL DOOM."

I think you'll find that not everyone here believes your specific narrative. They just don't challenge you as much as I have, because it's so fricken tiresome to go around in circles over your endless insinuation that peak oil caused the credit crisis or that speculation didn't pad the super-spike in 2008.

You're clutching at that the way Linus clutches at his belief in the Great Pumpkin. But it's over, man, and you're one of the few out there still plugging away at your outdated narrative.
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Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby hvacman » Fri 02 Oct 2015, 19:32:00

What, there's no Great Pumpkin? I'm doomed...

To paraphrase Linus in "It's the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown":

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')inus: There are three four things I have learned never to discuss with people: religion, politics, PO and the Great Pumpkin.


Not a bad thought for a guy who sucks his thumb and carries a blanket.
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Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby ennui2 » Fri 02 Oct 2015, 19:43:33

Add Obama to the list. I guess that falls under politics but it seems to be a topic in and of itself.
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Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 03 Oct 2015, 09:25:59

Falling off the plateau?

Did you read the article off the homepage talking about all the six major producers ticking upward and price estimates not going over $52 or so?

Falling off the plateau remains to be seen.
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Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 03 Oct 2015, 12:19:01

Depends on who you refer to. If you are talking about a country in Central America like Guatemala, you probably have fallen off the plateau already.
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Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 03 Oct 2015, 22:02:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'D')epends on who you refer to. If you are talking about a country in Central America like Guatemala, you probably have fallen off the plateau already.


You know, there are lots of countries that never ever produced any oil to speak of. Oil is a global commodity and it's not necessarily TEOTWAWKI for any part of the world that doesn't have oil if it can trade for enough circulating around the globe to keep it supplied (and there is plenty available for that). Countries that hitched their wagons to oil revenue and didn't diversity are SOL when they go post-peak and don't earn any sympathies from me.
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Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 04 Oct 2015, 03:05:39

But you are missing the point that once we (the whole world) falls off the plateau there just won't be enough oil circulating around the globe. Those that have it will hoard it or sell it only at very high prices and those without which have been getting along fine supplied by the global market will suddenly find that they can't get any oil at a price they can pay.
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Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 04 Oct 2015, 03:57:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'B')ut you are missing the point that once we (the whole world) falls off the plateau there just won't be enough oil circulating around the globe. Those that have it will hoard it or sell it only at very high prices and those without which have been getting along fine supplied by the global market will suddenly find that they can't get any oil at a price they can pay.

Thank you!
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Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby Strummer » Sun 04 Oct 2015, 05:26:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'O')il is a global commodity and it's not necessarily TEOTWAWKI for any part of the world that doesn't have oil if it can trade for enough circulating around the globe to keep it supplied (and there is plenty available for that).


And how are those countries supposed to pay for that oil? You need to have meaningful and actually needed exports to be able to pay for the imports of primary resources. Sure, countries like Germany or Japan will always be able to pay for their oil imports, because they actually produce lots of stuff which is necessary for running the global civilization and will be necessary even after TEOTWAWKI. But then you have someone like Greece (or to a lesser extent Ukraine), countries that are just almost pure consumers. They don't have anything to offer in exchange for the oil they need to exist. Ukraine at least has the choice of returning to the Russian markets, but Greece? No one actually needs Greece for anything (or the United Kingdom, or Ireland).
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Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 04 Oct 2015, 07:01:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'O')il is a global commodity and it's not necessarily TEOTWAWKI for any part of the world that doesn't have oil if it can trade for enough circulating around the globe to keep it supplied (and there is plenty available for that).


And how are those countries supposed to pay for that oil? You need to have meaningful and actually needed exports to be able to pay for the imports of primary resources. Sure, countries like Germany or Japan will always be able to pay for their oil imports, because they actually produce lots of stuff which is necessary for running the global civilization and will be necessary even after TEOTWAWKI. But then you have someone like Greece (or to a lesser extent Ukraine), countries that are just almost pure consumers. They don't have anything to offer in exchange for the oil they need to exist. Ukraine at least has the choice of returning to the Russian markets, but Greece? No one actually needs Greece for anything (or the United Kingdom, or Ireland).

Countries like Ireland have a very robust agricultural sector and do export large quantities of food so will be able to generate sufficient income to buy imported fuel but of course there will be less available to purchase. We have a very dispersed car-centric economy here and that will have to change soon, otherwise the decline in available fuel will have a serious impact on the lifestyles of many.
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Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 04 Oct 2015, 08:20:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'B')ut you are missing the point that once we (the whole world) falls off the plateau there just won't be enough oil circulating around the globe. Those that have it will hoard it or sell it only at very high prices and those without which have been getting along fine supplied by the global market will suddenly find that they can't get any oil at a price they can pay.


Fortunately the countries least able to afford the oil are those very countries that have not built out a high energy dependent infrastructure and still have a significant percentage of their population dedicated to agriculture and small cottage industries. Many of these countries though are not self sufficient in food production and it is exactly this surplus in the population that will through attrition lasting several decades go into decline. It will most likely happen slow enough that Ennui and Pstarr will be still lashing out at each other with their walkers and canes in the old peoples home. Wait a minute, the age difference means that Ennui will be changing Pstarr's diaper while they are still arguing over this undulating plateau.
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Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 04 Oct 2015, 10:17:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', '
')And how are those countries supposed to pay for that oil?


It's called trade. You get oil in exchange for some other goods and services.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', '
')But then you have someone like Greece (or to a lesser extent Ukraine), countries that are just almost pure consumers.


And I'm supposed to feel sorry for countries that can't get their act together?
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Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 05 Oct 2015, 03:56:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', '
')And how are those countries supposed to pay for that oil?


It's called trade. You get oil in exchange for some other goods and services.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', '
')But then you have someone like Greece (or to a lesser extent Ukraine), countries that are just almost pure consumers.


And I'm supposed to feel sorry for countries that can't get their act together?


Like the U.S. using the dollar in exchange for goods and services?
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Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby Revi » Mon 05 Oct 2015, 10:15:39

They will start to shut off countries, like they do when there are blackouts in India. It's call load shedding and the poor neighborhoods get shut off in order to have enough electricity for the richer places. It's cruel, but it's what is going to happen.
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Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 05 Oct 2015, 10:24:14

Oh it is already happening I have heard first hand accounts from both Latin America and the Philippines of such rolling blackouts and limited rationed power. So I assume the same for other poor regions like Africa, Middle East and even some Eastern bloc countries.
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Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 05 Oct 2015, 11:51:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')Like the U.S. using the dollar in exchange for goods and services?


What's your point?
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Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 05 Oct 2015, 22:41:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')Like the U.S. using the dollar in exchange for goods and services?


What's your point?


It's the opposite of what you said.
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Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 05 Oct 2015, 23:15:32

haha, good reply Ralfy. Ennui seems to be under the assumption that all that "funny" money is real. Better acquaint him to the wise saying from the Indians:
“When the last tree is cut down, the last fish eaten and the last stream poisoned, you will realize that you cannot eat money.”
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