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The 'Fear The Doomer' thread

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 31 Aug 2015, 19:36:42

Typical doomer response. They've been proven wrong for, like, years now. And they still insist they were right! :lol:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '&')quot;So why the need to mock/ridicule?"

Because Copious was ridiculed mercilessly 10 years ago when he posted as Oilfinder. And it was justified. That useless disturbed individual had the absolute and ridiculous presumption to believe that he was quantifying, establishing and publishing an oil-discovery database. Yet Oily had no formal training whatsoever or experience in geology, oil exploration, or even the oil business. He was an anti-doomer then as well. It was Oily's goal to prove forever that oil discoveries exceed oil consumption. Thus rendering peak-oil meaningless. He failed and gave up, changing his handle to youknowwho.

He was an idiot. Oily developed his oil-discovery database from new oil-industry newsletter and the popular press without any serious analysis. He made no attempt to normalize reservoir-size data because it would have been impossible. SEC protocols were/are soft, liable for revision, and victims of the same government-oversight downsizing that was then and is now hobbling all regulatory bodies. Hence the mortgage/financial meltdown. It occurred exactly while Oily was promoting his own same poor oversight from random data.

So now you see why copius/oily is so angry. He has been ridiculed for a decade, coming on a generation. That is some scary psychological baggage my friends. :-x
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 31 Aug 2015, 19:44:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GregT', '[')b]5 reasons those who mock and humiliate you are mentally unstable ...

BTW, pstarr's reply above is a perfect example of how it isn't just Cornies who mock and ridicule.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread

Unread postby GregT » Mon 31 Aug 2015, 20:47:05

It would appear that you have worn out your welcome here copious? I wasn't around for what pstarr refers to above, but I can see how people would become frustrated with your ignorance and denial rather quickly. Which, by the way, are both emotional responses to fear as well. I'm sure you choose to ignore psychology also?
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 31 Aug 2015, 21:42:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GregT', 'I') can see how people would become frustrated with your ignorance and denial rather quickly.

I think this is an appropriate juncture to quote ... you:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GregT', '[')b]5 reasons those who mock and humiliate you are mentally unstable ...
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread

Unread postby GregT » Mon 31 Aug 2015, 22:04:51

Not attempting to mock or humiliate you copious. Ignorance and denial are perfectly normal emotional responses for a large percentage of the population when faced with dire circumstances. The Kübler-Ross model is very well accepted and understood. If you are not familiar with it, a brief description can be found here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kübler-Ross_model

And "5 reasons those who mock and humiliate you are mentally unstable" is not my quote. It is the title of the article that I posted above, and again here:
http://www.2knowmyself.com/5_reasons_th ... y_unstable
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 31 Aug 2015, 22:21:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GregT', 'N')ot attempting to mock or humiliate you copious. Ignorance and denial are perfectly normal emotional responses for a large percentage of the population when faced with dire circumstances. The Kübler-Ross model is very well accepted and understood. If you are not familiar with it, a brief description can be found here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kübler-Ross_model

That's pretty funny. You are clearly in the denial stage (refusal to believe that peak oil and doomerism have been wrong). There are people here, like Cog and Outcast_Searcher, who have already gone through all those stages and accepted the fact they were wrong and have become de-facto Cornucopians. Eventually, as the years pass and your predicted doom fails to materialize, you too, will gradually trod the same path they did.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GregT', 'A')nd "5 reasons those who mock and humiliate you are mentally unstable" is not my quote. It is the title of the article that I posted above, and again here:
http://www.2knowmyself.com/5_reasons_th ... y_unstable

You used that article to support your own case. Now that I've used it against you you are suddenly distancing yourself from it. :roll:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread

Unread postby GregT » Mon 31 Aug 2015, 23:13:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'r')efusal to believe that peak oil and doomerism have been wrong


How could I possibly be in denial about something that hasn't even played out yet? Sorry cop, you're not making any sense.
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread

Unread postby Cog » Mon 31 Aug 2015, 23:15:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'T')hat's pretty funny. You are clearly in the denial stage (refusal to believe that peak oil and doomerism have been wrong). There are people here, like Cog and Outcast_Searcher, who have already gone through all those stages and accepted the fact they were wrong and have become de-facto Cornucopians. Eventually, as the years pass and your predicted doom fails to materialize, you too, will gradually trod the same path they did.


Image
Last edited by Tanada on Mon 31 Aug 2015, 23:41:57, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed broken quote
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 31 Aug 2015, 23:37:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GregT', 'H')ow could I possibly be in denial about something that hasn't even played out yet?

It would appear he's even in denial about being in denial. After all, as I already noted, these doomer predictions were supposed to have played out in, like, somewhere in the 1800's, or in the 1970's. Friendly reminder: It is now 2015.

Here's a more recent one, from a now-defunct peak oil website elsewhere on the internet:

Image

There's many more where that came from. A really funny example being this infamous write-up by "ace" on The Oil Drum. OOPS!. Of course doomers like yourself will just sweep those embarrassing examples under the rug and continue to repeat the same predictions over, and over, and over again.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'I')'ll give you a hint: It has something to do with being wrong for decade after decade, and even century after century (see: Erlich 1968 and Maulthus 1798). And refusing to learn anything from those experiences.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread

Unread postby GregT » Mon 31 Aug 2015, 23:51:33

Well I guess it's too bad for whomever made that prediction, that the global financial crisis and the 'great recession' stopped oil prices from climbing above $147 per barrel. Sucks to be them.
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 31 Aug 2015, 23:57:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GregT', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'r')efusal to believe that peak oil and doomerism have been wrong


How could I possibly be in denial about something that hasn't even played out yet? Sorry cop, you're not making any sense.


Well, I think copious' response would be that it is supposed to have played out 10 years ago according to The Oil Drum. Point to dying refugees (fleeing Isis, not mutant zombie peak oil bikers, BTW) all you want, but here we are, pretty much still standing, population still growing, supermarket shelves still full, and gas cheaper than a very long time.

Of course, there's only so much schadenfreude you can dish out to bad doomer predictions before you have to reset the clock and evaluate where we're headed long-term, which is still pretty bleak.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread

Unread postby Cog » Tue 01 Sep 2015, 00:33:25

That was a nice trip down memory lane. Over at TOD they were arguing whether 2005 or 2008 was the real peak. Each side argued their point with charts, graphs, and scary depletion models. All of them actually wrong but they were so sure of themselves.

I was a doomer then and was fascinated by how it was all so evident we were on the downside of the Hubbert curve.

Wonder what happened to all those guys over there who invested so much time into all of this only to be proven wrong a short time later. Maybe they became cornies or just sulked in their basements.
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread

Unread postby GregT » Tue 01 Sep 2015, 00:43:37

"According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) International Energy Outlook 2014, the global supply of crude oil, other liquid hydrocarbons, and biofuels is expected to be adequate to meet the world's demand for liquid fuels for at least the next 25 years."

http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=38&t=6

"In the Copenhagen accord 167 countries agreed that to avoid reaching dangerous tipping points, global warming should not exceed 2 centigrades. Unfortunately, the two degree target is no guarantee against a runaway greenhouse effect."

"Scientists have calculated that there is a reasonable hope to stay below 2°C by mid century if we limit our carbon emissions to a total of 565 more gigatons, or corresponding to less than 450 ppmv of greenhouse gases(GHG) in the atmosphere."

"The amount of carbon contained in the proven oil, coal and gas reserves of fossil fuel companies – the fossil fuel we currently plan to burn – is 2795 gigatons. This is five times more than our “allowance”."

http://ufbutv.com/climate-change/

Either way we're in deep trouble.......
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 01 Sep 2015, 02:38:07

It is like a choice between big trouble now via drastic carbon emission cut and big trouble later with continued high carbon emissions. Pick your poison.
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 01 Sep 2015, 02:42:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'T')hat was a nice trip down memory lane. Over at TOD they were arguing whether 2005 or 2008 was the real peak. Each side argued their point with charts, graphs, and scary depletion models. All of them actually wrong but they were so sure of themselves.

I was a doomer then and was fascinated by how it was all so evident we were on the downside of the Hubbert curve.

Wonder what happened to all those guys over there who invested so much time into all of this only to be proven wrong a short time later. Maybe they became cornies or just sulked in their basements.


If production is seen in light of the population that feeds on it, then one should look at oil production per capita. That peaked during the late '70s.
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread

Unread postby Cog » Tue 01 Sep 2015, 02:47:00

Its a little late to be changing definitions ralfy.
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread

Unread postby GregT » Tue 01 Sep 2015, 03:01:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'I')ts a little late to be changing definitions ralfy.


So if I understand correctly, you transformed from being a believer in finite resources on a finite planet, to a believer in infinite resources for all. I find that curious. Please do tell.
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread

Unread postby Cog » Tue 01 Sep 2015, 04:26:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GregT', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'I')ts a little late to be changing definitions ralfy.


So if I understand correctly, you transformed from being a believer in finite resources on a finite planet, to a believer in infinite resources for all. I find that curious. Please do tell.


Not exactly. Oil is still finite. There is just a lot of it still out there. But predictions about impending doom are always wrong. This also applies to the flavor of the day, global warming. Doomers get emotionally attached to the issue of impending doom and they will defend that idea even when the data doesn't support it. I dropped back and reevaluated my thinking about doom and concluded that I was wrong about a great number of things.

I still read the "doom is imminent" threads to see if there is anything worthwhile to consider, but I'm not emotionally invested in them anymore like many people here are.
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Re: The 'Fear The Doomer' thread

Unread postby Strummer » Tue 01 Sep 2015, 05:56:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'B')ut predictions about impending doom are always wrong.


There have been hundreds of local civilizational collapses throughout history, some of them were really massive ones. Are you saying that predictions of their impending doom were "always wrong"?

Or are you saying that predictions of a global civilizational collapse were "always wrong"? Well yes, they were, because until recently, there was no really global civilization, so it could not collapse, duh. Now there is, for the first time in human history, a truly global integrated civilization, and if a collapse (like those hundreds of collapses before) happens, it will be, also for the first time in history, global.
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