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Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Re: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 25 May 2015, 14:34:00

The optimist sees the glass half full , the pessimist sees the glass half empty, the realist is looking to find more water.
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Re: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 25 May 2015, 14:48:02

The optimist sees the glass half full ,
the pessimist sees the glass half empty,
the realist imagines he knows the truth

IOW, the optimist and pessimist can both consider themselves realists, just with different tendencies.

The realist doesn't imagine he has a bias, which of course it the biggest bias.
Last edited by Pops on Mon 25 May 2015, 14:56:34, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: edited about 5 times as I my biases evolved
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Re: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 25 May 2015, 14:54:25

Yes but the realist does not wallow in emotions good or bad, he/she acts based upon available info. Bias usually is related to emotions, I would think.
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Re: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 25 May 2015, 15:03:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Timo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'A')nother factor/ reason to hang on to optimism is that pessimism & inaction have a very solid marriage. If you like being active, better have a positive reason to act. If you like being inactive, what better excuse than committed negativity?

SG, you just perfectly described American Republicanism. Nicely done!


what? that's a really fucked up reduction.

What?

You don't find the likes of Pelosi, Reid, Hillary Clinton, and every Democrat committed to taxing and spending their way to "success" and shrieking that every attempt to limit ANY social spending is "starving the poor" or some such nonsense, a GOP problem?

You don't call any attempt to stop ANY spending programs from the left "an attack on Big Bird" pessimistic?

Watch out. The illustrious Rachael Maddow, that bastion of optimism from MSNBC is likely to give you a BIG, sarcastic frownie-face!

Yeah, delusion is only suffered by the GOP... :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 25 May 2015, 15:32:51

I disagree onlooker.

Ask MBS and Copious (just to pick two) and they would tell you they are neither optimistic or pessimistic but realistic. Yet they have 2 opposing points of view. How can that be?

We each make up our own reality from the inputs of our few senses, our unique experiences, our genetic predispositions, our diet, health status, age and who knows what.

I think the full time job of the subconscious it to stitch together a narrative that somehow blends all those pieces and influences together so we can make a guess at what is going to happen next. Good from a survival perspective and obviously a trait that has been selected for and maybe we are better at it than most animals, but that doesn't mean that we are prescient or omniscient or even merely unbiased.

There is no objective reality, only subjective interpretation. Realism is just another bias, one of the least desirable I think because a person is biased to such an extent they think they have no bias.
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Re: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 25 May 2015, 16:12:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is no objective reality, only subjective interpretation. Realism is just another bias, one of the least desirable I think because a person is biased to such an extent they think they have no bias.


Certainly their is some validity to what your saying Pops. Yet I still claim that a problem can have a empirically based solution and the realist is the one most equipped to solve it because he/she does not let emotion/bias as much as possible cloud the analysis and final solution or conclusion. The example would be a scientist who dispassionately studies something and using experiment , trial and error and available facts tries to reach the logical conclusion based upon this careful screening. Admittedly it is not a perfect process and yes as humans we can easily consciously or unconsciously be swayed by some preference or bias. However, the pursuit of an answer via a logical procession of deductions, observations , revelations and conclusions is what intelligent reasoning is about. After this verbose post I am ready for something cold it is quite hot here in N.East. :-D
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Re: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 25 May 2015, 16:13:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is no objective reality, only subjective interpretation. Realism is just another bias, one of the least desirable I think because a person is biased to such an extent they think they have no bias.


Certainly their is some validity to what your saying Pops. Yet I still claim that a problem can have a empirically based solution and the realist is the one most equipped to solve it because he/she does not let emotion/bias as much as possible cloud the analysis and final solution or conclusion. The example would be a scientist who dispassionately studies something and using experiment , trial and error and available facts tries to reach the logical conclusion based upon this careful screening. Admittedly it is not a perfect process and yes as humans we can easily consciously or unconsciously be swayed by some preference or bias. However, the pursuit of an answer via a logical procession of deductions, observations , revelations and conclusions is what intelligent reasoning is about. After this verbose post I am ready for something cold it is quite hot here in N.East. :-D
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Re: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Unread postby Timo » Mon 25 May 2015, 21:54:17

Reading through the last few posts about realism and subjective interpretations of billions of personal observations, all separately, yet collectively shaping the world we all see around us has lead me to the following hypothesis: The universe is a hologram, and reality, as we all understand it, does not exist. Reality, in fact, cannot be defined, not by any one, or even uniformly by billions of people, because everyone's interpretations of their own personal observations are different to some degree. We all can only be realists in the extent of our own minds, based solely on our own interpretations of our own personal observations. No two individuals live in the same reality. That reality changes depending on the POV of the individual. Just like a hologram.

I'm very optimistic that my hypothesis is correct.

I'm very pessimistic that i'll ever have another trip like that, where I came to reach this hypothesis. :roll: That was one helluva mind-meld I had with my Volcan spirit guide. But it all seemed so logical at the time!
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Re: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 26 May 2015, 04:31:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'T')he optimist sees the glass half full , the pessimist sees the glass half empty, the realist is looking to find more water.


I think all three points in the analogy should be equivalent. That means all three of them should see the glass in different ways, or all three should be looking for more water for different reasons.
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Re: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 26 May 2015, 04:34:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') disagree onlooker.

Ask MBS and Copious (just to pick two) and they would tell you they are neither optimistic or pessimistic but realistic. Yet they have 2 opposing points of view. How can that be?

We each make up our own reality from the inputs of our few senses, our unique experiences, our genetic predispositions, our diet, health status, age and who knows what.

I think the full time job of the subconscious it to stitch together a narrative that somehow blends all those pieces and influences together so we can make a guess at what is going to happen next. Good from a survival perspective and obviously a trait that has been selected for and maybe we are better at it than most animals, but that doesn't mean that we are prescient or omniscient or even merely unbiased.

There is no objective reality, only subjective interpretation. Realism is just another bias, one of the least desirable I think because a person is biased to such an extent they think they have no bias.


That doesn't follow from the analogy: one can see a glass as half-full or half-empty, the amount of water in the glass is the same either way.
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Re: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 26 May 2015, 05:01:47

Well spotted Ralphy, I always thought it was a silly question too, however it is an analogy for a bunch of questions about attitude. You could fire dozens of the questions we discuss here at a person at random & generally expect one of 3 reactions overall. Fight, flee or accept. One could react in any of these modes with a positive or negative self view, which after all is just an attitude about an attitude. We can see fight or flight & we see acceptance, these are actions, hence some people doing amazingly positive things in an intensely aware headspace, yet still be miserable & others can be happy being worse than any animal in their behaviour. Weird monkeys.
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Re: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Unread postby Pops » Tue 26 May 2015, 08:39:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'T')hat doesn't follow from the analogy: one can see a glass as half-full or half-empty, the amount of water in the glass is the same either way.

The bias is imagining you can sense the level more accurately than another person.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he three "tenets" of naive realism are:

That I see entities and events as they are in objective reality, and that my social attitudes, beliefs, preferences, priorities, and the like follow from a relatively dispassionate, unbiased and essentially "unmediated" comprehension of the information or evidence at hand.

That other rational social perceivers generally will share my reactions, behaviors, and opinions—provided they have had access to the same information that gave rise to my views, and provided that they too have processed that information in a reasonably thoughtful and open-minded fashion.


That the failure of a given individual or group to share my views arises from one of three possible sources—
the individual or group in question may have been exposed to a different sample of information than I was (in which case, provided that the other party is reasonable and open minded, the sharing or pooling of information should lead us to reach an agreement);

the individual or group in question may be lazy, irrational, or otherwise unable or unwilling to proceed in a normative fashion from objective evidence to reasonable conclusions; or

the individual or group in question may be biased (either in interpreting the evidence, or in proceeding from evidence to conclusions) by ideology, self-interest, or some other distorting personal influence.[2]
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Re: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Unread postby Pops » Tue 26 May 2015, 08:50:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Timo', 'R')eality, in fact, cannot be defined, not by any one, or even uniformly by billions of people, because everyone's interpretations of their own personal observations are different to some degree.

Because we are realists, pretty well everything stated as fact around here flies in the face of the observations of billions of people.

You can't have it both ways.
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Re: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Unread postby Pops » Tue 26 May 2015, 09:01:40

Here are two headlines from google news
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/orders-for-durable-goods-drop-05-percent-in-april/2015/05/26/38975560-03a4-11e5-93f4-f24d4af7f97d_story.html]Orders for durable goods drop 0.5 percent in April–Washington Post[/url]

US durable goods pick up pace in April–Financial Times


They both describe the same reality but my guess is you (the reader) will have a knee-jerk affinity for one version or the other.
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Re: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 27 May 2015, 04:03:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'T')hat doesn't follow from the analogy: one can see a glass as half-full or half-empty, the amount of water in the glass is the same either way.

The bias is imagining you can sense the level more accurately than another person.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he three "tenets" of naive realism are:

That I see entities and events as they are in objective reality, and that my social attitudes, beliefs, preferences, priorities, and the like follow from a relatively dispassionate, unbiased and essentially "unmediated" comprehension of the information or evidence at hand.

That other rational social perceivers generally will share my reactions, behaviors, and opinions—provided they have had access to the same information that gave rise to my views, and provided that they too have processed that information in a reasonably thoughtful and open-minded fashion.


That the failure of a given individual or group to share my views arises from one of three possible sources—
the individual or group in question may have been exposed to a different sample of information than I was (in which case, provided that the other party is reasonable and open minded, the sharing or pooling of information should lead us to reach an agreement);

the individual or group in question may be lazy, irrational, or otherwise unable or unwilling to proceed in a normative fashion from objective evidence to reasonable conclusions; or

the individual or group in question may be biased (either in interpreting the evidence, or in proceeding from evidence to conclusions) by ideology, self-interest, or some other distorting personal influence.[2]


But the amount of water remains the same. Perhaps you are looking at the reaction to that reality, and that reaction in turn may be driven by various circumstances, including knowledge of water supplies, the ability to access them, what one needs, etc.

For example, the optimist might be happy that at least the glass is half-full and that he'll manage with it, the pessimist might argue that the water isn't enough because something might go wrong in the future, while the realist will agree with either given his assessment of whether or not the water is enough for his needs and various contingencies.

If all three discover that there isn't enough water, then the optimist might be happy because he believes that in the future some technofix or group of people will solve that problem. The pessimist might argue otherwise while the realist will agree with either based on his assessment of technofixes or others making water available for him.

Given that and the assumption that the examples take place in a limited biosphere, then it is likely that in time the realist will agree with the pessimist. That's why for me there's little difference between the two.
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Re: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 27 May 2015, 06:09:48

How many times have you heard that Obama is black? How many times have you heard that he's half white by comparison? Which is he to his white mama who raised him? It's OK to call this guy black, obviously, & a bit un PC to call him half white, but absurd to call him white, right? Although calling him white is as correct as calling him black, if we remove bias.

I am doing ethics @ university at present & arguing about definitions with my 70 yo professor today about the question of such a thing as 'individual ethics'. Without going into the whole spiel, the question optimist vs pessimist is one bound in this part of our minds which will invariably almost, go hard for the most socially acceptable position. We 'feel' our ethic is personally compelling on a deep level, when in fact it is a response to social pressure. Why else do us lost black sheep congregate in this neck of the world? Why is Facebook the biggest site in the world maybe ever? Human need for social approval in an ever more complex & novel environment.

Positivity is the preferred meat in every sandwich, is why most people are addicted to it, more to abstaining from anything deemed not to fit in with this basic dog brain social requirement. Like existentialism, may be scientifically correct, with it's own fanclub & post modernist spawn, but it is so unbearably anti social anyone under 35 odd is likely to have to read for a while to figure out what the hell I just said.
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Re: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Unread postby Pops » Wed 27 May 2015, 08:43:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'T')hat's why for me there's little difference between the two.

Why doesn't that simply make you a pessimist? I mean after all, most folks believe they are right about most things and especially about their beliefs — that's why they are called beliefs. LOL

In other words, most everyone thinks they are a realist, that they have a grasp of reality. Probably more likely, most never even considers otherwise. Which is maybe why optical illusions like MC Esche's drawings are so fascinating, we are surprised because our preconceptions of reality are challenged.

I'm not turning into some transcendental swami seeking enlightenment on the astral plane, merely acknowledging the fact that sometimes my closely held beliefs, knee-jerks, gut reactions and off the cuff opinions —that I am completely positive about initially, turn out to be mistaken on closer inspection.

Perhaps I'm simply a poor specimen and you all have perfect insight. Or maybe you all [realists] just never consider the possibility you don't.


Positive, adj.: Mistaken at the top of one's voice.
― Ambrose Bierce, The Unabridged Devil's Dictionary

:razz:
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Re: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 27 May 2015, 09:14:14

We all seem to acknowledge that we are entering uncharted waters. That in itself means that our supposition of reality will be challenged. Funny though how this understanding seems to make many people bite down harder on their rigid beliefs.

Hey, this is another one of those silver linings. An uncharted future brings mystery into our lives. That's so much nicer than the boring predictability of living in abundance.

We might even be called upon to move from parasitic consumption toward something more balanced in relationship to our biosphere.

Wow, the future is looking more dignified for our species every moment.
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Re: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Unread postby Timo » Wed 27 May 2015, 11:12:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'W')e all seem to acknowledge that we are entering uncharted waters. That in itself means that our supposition of reality will be challenged. Funny though how this understanding seems to make many people bite down harder on their rigid beliefs.

I'm right, Damnit! You're wrong! End of story!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ey, this is another one of those silver linings. An uncharted future brings mystery into our lives. That's so much nicer than the boring predictability of living in abundance.

Boring is comfortable. If i was after excitement in my life, i'd buy a Playstation!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e might even be called upon to move from parasitic consumption toward something more balanced in relationship to our biosphere.

Don't get your hopes up on that. Remember, you're referrencing human behavior. There's only so much we can do. If we want to erroneously destroy the planet, then by-god, that's what we'll do! Changing our paradigm from "me first" to "earth first" will be a tough pill to swallow. At the most, only 10% of the human population will be able to do that.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ow, the future is looking more dignified for our species every moment.

What planet are you living on?
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Re: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 27 May 2015, 15:35:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Timo', ' ')
What planet are you living on?


Planet optimisto. I am accused of being an optimist and I therefore will embody this perspective.
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