[Apollo]

I missed this analysis and don't remember it being discussed. From At the Edge of Time:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')img]https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20087409/Images/2015-02-27_Loglets/6PulsesFit.svg[/img]

World petroleum extraction is most likely following a multi-cycle logistic process. After following a standard Verhulst growth path for more than 100 years, geopolitical events introduced a clear perturbation, possibly delaying the process several decades. However, these perturbations are themselves largely logistic in nature, modelled accurately with a Loglet Analysis. In essence, about 95% of the petroleum age heretofore is explained with just two logistic cycles.

[Tanada]

I had not seen this before so thanks for pointing it out. I think the Shale Boom will show but it will be just like the Alaska/Siberia/North Sea spike on the left side slope, only on the right side slope. Also because Shale came on so quickly due to bubble economics it will probably show as a sharper, that is narrower, spike. Ramping up the last three megafields I named above took over a decade and all three are still in production now at 15 to 30 percent of their peak rates. If the low prices last much longer the amount of shale drilling next year will be 50 percent of what it was in 2014, maybe even less. With the decline rates of those shale beds being so steep by then they might only be producing 50 percent of what they produced in 2014.

[ROCKMAN]

Apollo - "The model is clearly missing the shale boom of the last couple of years." I won't pretend to be a Loglet analysis expert but the link seems to do an excellent job of explaining why the methodology missed the shale boom: “World petroleum extraction is most likely following a multi-cycle logistic process.” IOW the method essentially reverse engineers the dynamics to explain the plot the production curve AT THAT POINT IN TIME. IOW if a significant a change in the dynamics (such as the shale boom) DOESN'T kick in the Loglet analysis will do a fine job of projecting the future just as it has done for the other “multi-cycles”...once the Loglet model was adjusted for those different cycles. All the past data fits look good because they include adjustments to the logistic curve based upon those changes.

Just as the conclusions of the article states: “Any proper forecast based on the results presented here must therefore consider the existence of these other cycles, and that their trajectory might at this stage be still largely unknown.” IOW if the dynamics don’t change from the last iteration of the Loglet analysis then it will do a great job of predicting the future. But if the dynamics do significantly change, as happened with the shale boom created by high oil prices, the Loglet model won’t be worth a sh*t…just like it hasn’t for the last 8 years.

I paraphrase their words, of course. LOL.

[jjhman]

Certainly, during this century the hallmark of the peak oil conversation is a curve showing the decline of oil production starting tomorrow, or next Thursday at the latest. I can't help but laugh now everytime someone posts such a graph.