[DesuMaiden]

I know with virtual certainty that the population will crash after peak oil. There is no way we can support 7 billion + people without oil. Now the better question is this. How will the population decrease? Will it be a catastrophic die off where most of the deaths happen within a very short span of time (let's say within 5 to 10 years). Or will the die off happen slowly, and there will only be slow decreases in population or perhaps 1 or 2% per year decrease in population for the next 50 to 100 years? Or will it be a combination of fast and slow population decrease? This means the population experiences fast die offs with slow population decreases between the fast die offs. I just hope the population doesn't suddenly crash to under 2 billion people starting in another 2 decades. I hope the die off is slow, because a fast die off is virtually impossible to prepare for. If several billion people perish within the span of 5 to 10 years, that would be virtually impossible to prepare for because the deaths would be too catastrophic to handle. I want the population to slowly decrease over the next 50 to 100 years, and not suddenly experience large scale deaths.

[vtsnowedin]

History would lead us to believe that a sudden die off caused by famine quite possibly brought on by war is the most likely cause of the expected die off. Anything gradual and people being the clever and desperate creatures they are find ways around it. But cut off their food supply and eliminate their ability to grow or buy more and they will die within months.
This time around I expect a collapse of the western economies will be the trigger. A lack of credit will prevent farmers both private and commercial from planting and harvesting a sizable portion of the crops they grow today. There is not enough slack in the system to withstand such a cut back in acreage planted and worldwide shortages will result. The collapsed economy will also have created widespread unemployment and the collapse of government benefits of all types. So not only will there not be enough food on the store shelves you won't have any money or credit to buy it with.
Living in the city you will have rat on the menu as long as the rats last. In Paris in the siege of 1870-71 they lasted four months. They ate everything, the cats the dogs , the horses even the elephants in the zoo.
This same collapse will mean there is no grain or other food available for export which will spread famine and death to all those countries that relies on imported food from the west . It will snowball from there.

[GregT]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'H')istory would lead us to believe that a sudden die off caused by famine quite possibly brought on by war is the most likely cause of the expected die off.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GregT', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'H')istory would lead us to believe that a sudden die off caused by famine quite possibly brought on by war is the most likely cause of the expected die off.

[forbin]

the 5th Horseman is chaos but you already knew that

Also if Fembots become mainstream and as actual robots or androids instead of the current virtual ones then we'll die out due to lack of reproduction

sorry the west is already doing that ( low birth rates ) so all we need is to export our life style to the Row and ........... ah oh . yes there's a problem here Houston ......


Forbin

[SeaGypsy]

meet-cannibalistic-capitalism-globalization-s-evil-twin-t66150.html

Something along these lines.
When capitalism masters cannibalism & this becomes the status quo we are on the long road.

[Pops]

It could happen like this



http://www.ipss.go.jp/webj-ad/webjourna ... donald.pdf

[dinopello]

Don't expect no help from the Romney clan



I guess the point is, don't worry ... we won't run out of presidents either

[Pops]

You're in rare form lately D.

LOL

[Subjectivist]

Some people like having a lot of kids while others had a lot of kids because of cultural or economic factors. With good life expectancy and social safety nets those who had lots of kids for security in old age no longer need to do so, and with changed economic circumstances those who had many kids for family labor reasons also have no motivation to do so. Sociological reasons are causing like these are causing many women to reduce or forgo reproduction completely. That doesn't mean that if circumstances change the next generation of girls won't grow up and then produce multiple children of their own some time in the future.

[Pops]

Read the paper I linked above Sub. it argues the opposite:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n general, Group 2 countries are countries in
which there is a strong, traditional value that family
and state are separate entities and that families
should support their own members without intervention
from the state. Accordingly, states in these
regions have been slow to implement broad-based,
family assistance measures. The opposite tends to
be the case in the Group 1 countries; in general,
they are notable for the family-friendly institutional
arrangements that they have implemented in the
past 20 years. Thus, the argument is that there are
universal social and economic trends that draw
young people away from family formation but that
in Group 1 countries the effect of these trends is
less severe because of the family support policies
that they have introduced.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'R')ead the paper I linked above Sub. it argues the opposite:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n general, Group 2 countries are countries in
which there is a strong, traditional value that family
and state are separate entities and that families
should support their own members without intervention
from the state. Accordingly, states in these
regions have been slow to implement broad-based,
family assistance measures. The opposite tends to
be the case in the Group 1 countries; in general,
they are notable for the family-friendly institutional
arrangements that they have implemented in the
past 20 years. Thus, the argument is that there are
universal social and economic trends that draw
young people away from family formation but that
in Group 1 countries the effect of these trends is
less severe because of the family support policies
that they have introduced.

[Pops]

did you read the link?

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'd')id you read the link?

[Hawkcreek]

I expect that young people who spend all their time posting on the web will go first --- then everybody else.
Naa, just kiddin -

I don't think PO will cause a "total" die off. It will be a slow reset to a less energy intensive lifestyle for everyone. That will kill off a lot of people, but at some point the available energy / food / water resources will reach a new equilibrium point (probably several cycles of this type).
The trick is to find a way to stay alive during the decline.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'Y')ou're in rare form lately D.

LOL

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'I') know with virtual certainty that the population will crash after peak oil. There is no way we can support 7 billion + people without oil.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'I') know with virtual certainty that the population will crash after peak oil. There is no way we can support 7 billion + people without oil.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'I') know with virtual certainty that the population will crash after peak oil. There is no way we can support 7 billion + people without oil.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')Finally, societies in the past did adjust to various crises, but I'm not sure if they experienced the combination of crises that are taking place today, as well as factors including a large global population, arms proliferation, significant environmental damage, and the effects of global warming.