[Pops]

Just wait 'till tomorrow, I'll likely be predicting doom by afternoon!

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Bloomberg Commodity index, which tracks the prices of 22 different commodity prices such as gold, natural gas and oil, fell 0.3pc to 99.84 in early trading, the lowest point since August 2002.

[SILENTTODD]

A close Real Estate friend of mine says Warren Buffett just bought out Prudential Real Estate. Plans are already rolling to rebrand it as Berkshire Hathaway Real Estate by May 1st.

Obviously Buffett thinks there is money to bed made in Real Estate for the next few years.

[Pops]

Buffet accidentally acquired a bunch of real estate brokerages back in 1999 when he bought an energy company of all things. He has been buying up brokerages ever since. This story says they had 75,000 agents as of 2012 when they bought Prudential!
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/bus ... e/1668649/

[SILENTTODD]

Thanks Pops for the article. Referred it to my friend who had been a Prudential realtor for the last 15 years. She's one of her office's top producers and she's impressed with the way they are making the change over now.

[shortonoil]

Come on ralfy, we know the price of oil is down, but the demand is up so where is the deflation?

Of course demand is up? They are pumping almost a million barrels per day into storage, and that oil gets counted into demand. With Cushing now over 80% full things are likely to change real fast in the demand department real soon!

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')i]Come on ralfy, we know the price of oil is down, but the demand is up so where is the deflation?

Of course demand is up? They are pumping almost a million barrels per day into storage, and that oil gets counted into demand. With Cushing now over 80% full things are likely to change real fast in the demand department real soon! /

[GoghGoner]

Gasoline is now blended at the end of the pipeline. This has been a structure change in the last decade and that is why the finished gasoline chart is down.

Total gasoline stocks are not influenced by the change in delivery:

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGTSTUS1&f=W

[Pops]

Thanks G, I wondered what I did wrong, missed it by "that much"!

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', 'U')sing the stock market to assess overall conditions is a bit like saying the cancer patient is doing better because he's gained weight due to the giant watery tumor growing in his abdomen.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fishman', 'H')ey, now that's funny. Baltic Dry Index at absolute bottom numbers. Enough said

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Bloomberg Commodity index, which tracks the prices of 22 different commodity prices such as gold, natural gas and oil, fell 0.3pc to 99.84 in early trading, the lowest point since August 2002.

[GoghGoner]

I endorse this viewpoint.

Is This Powerful Indicator Signaling A Global Recession?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') similar trend is underway in the oil industry. There, too, crashing prices have much to do with a supply glut (brought on mainly by soaring U.S. production), and the glut makes it harder to tell how much of the crash is due to falling demand. This dilutes oil's value as a leading economic indicator.

Because of the shipping glut, something similar is probably happening with the BDI.

That said, the BDI's plunge is likely giving a strong signal about the demand side of the equation. By now, most investors are well aware of the many drags on demand for commodities. European and Japanese economies are in turmoil, a recession is underway in Russia and Canada and Australia may also be entering into recession.

[copious.abundance]

How many times do people here have to point out that the BDI is not a good economic indicator?

Like, read the first page of this thread.

[GoghGoner]

It is a fine indicator. The shippers believed the economic forecasts and built ships accordingly. Three years ago, China's GDP was forecast to grow more each year. The GDP growth actually fell each year and, now, 2015 is looking even worse. The BDI and commodity prices reflect what happens when assumptions are wrong.

So they built all of these ships, mined for coal, mined for copper, fracked for oil, built pig farms, etc... that are not needed. All of that unnecessary expansion was a large part of abysmal growth. What happens now that all of that is curtailed? Global recession.

[copious.abundance]

Bump!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')he BDI isn't all that great as a crystal ball.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-trut ... dex-2012-1

[GoghGoner]

If they are targeting slower growth then why all of the stimulus this year? Obviously, this is out of their control and has been since 2011. Trillions of dollars by central banks and what happens - deflation.

China lowers growth target, promises to open industries

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he growth target of about 7 percent, down from last year's 7.5 percent, is in line with efforts to create a "moderately prosperous society," said Premier Li Keqiang in a report Thursday to China's ceremonial national legislature. Last year's actual growth was 7.4 percent, the lowest since 1990.

[GoghGoner]

Jobless claims unexpectedly rise again this week. Maybe they should start expecting them to rise?

U.S. jobless claims rise; Q4 productivity revised down

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', 'S')o they built all of these ships, mined for coal, mined for copper, fracked for oil, built pig farms, etc... that are not needed. All of that unnecessary expansion was a large part of abysmal growth. What happens now that all of that is curtailed? Global recession.