[copious.abundance]

Translation: P-the-starr cannot devise a refutation of the contents of the first link in my sig, plus it defies what doomer-types have been led to believe, so in a defensive mechanism to hold on to his doomer/peaker worldview, he simply rejects it out-of-hand.

[shallow sand]

Hamm says 2 million per day? Any detail on how he arrived at that? The production spike has taken me by surprise.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'T')ranslation: P-the-starr cannot devise a refutation of the contents of the first link in my sig, plus it defies what doomer-types have been led to believe, so in a defensive mechanism to hold on to his doomer/peaker worldview, he simply rejects it out-of-hand.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'B')ut the fact is, primary energy consumption per capita continues to rise...

[copious.abundance]

1.11 million barrels/day in July

[shallow sand]

Copious. Noticed that only one of the four major producing counties had a significant increase July over June, two had small increases and one had a small decrease.

I am new to the board and am pretty limited in most areas discussed. Could you give me some ideas as to where the long term supply is coming from in the Bakken? it is my understanding over 85% of the oil produced comes from 4 ND counties which are already in the infill drilling and refrac stage.

The same issues seems to arise in the Eagle Ford, being just a few major counties and dwindling locations. The Permian appears to have the most long term potential, which seems to make sense given its 90 year history.

Also heard Hess CEO on CNBC say won't stop drilling Bakken until price drops another $15. That would be a pretty good floor for many lower 48 non shale producers IMO.

[copious.abundance]

A few years ago I read an analyses by Julie LeFevre (sp?) who is the state of North Dakota's top petroleum geologist, and she said something to the effect that they had discovered (to date) something like nine additional oil-bearing zones in the Williston Basin. And that was, like, 4 years ago, I think they've still encountered some more since then. This appears to be a stacked, multi-pay zone, depositional basin. Browse through this thread (including the archive version) and I'm pretty sure I linked an article or two on that topic. Many of these recently discovered zones they've only recently starting developing.

I'm sure not all of them will pan out, but if even just half of them do that's a lot of new zones to explore and develop.

[copious.abundance]

^
Here, you might want to read this analysis I posted here a couple years ago.

Also, the technology to drill these wells is getting better, so that's one source of production growth too.

[shallow sand]

Thank you for the info

[copious.abundance]

Looks like I missed this from back in April.

Bakken crude breakeven prices as low as $58/bbl in 2014 -report
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '(')Reuters) - New efficient drilling practices may drive breakeven rates in the best areas of the Bakken shale oil play as low as $58 per barrel, Wood Mackenzie said on Tuesday, far lower than the traditional $70 per barrel figure frequently touted by analysts.

The fast adoption of multi-well pad drilling, or the ability to drill several wells from one location, should reduce the average cost per well to $7.5 million on average in 2014, allowing companies to make more off each barrel of oil, Wood Mackenzie analyst Jonathan Garret said.

"The major driver of (well cost) reduction has to do with the number of wells drilled from pads," Garret said. "You're now drilling 3, 4, 12, even 16 wells from a single pad."

This year, more than 90 percent of wells drilled in the Bakken will be drilled from multi-well pads, Garret said. Multi-well pad drilling is more efficient by reducing the amount of time it takes to drill each well as well as the equipment used.

[copious.abundance]

If this turns out to be true, no doubt some doomers will get all excited. But of course it won't be for the reason they've been expecting.

North Dakota Governor Sees Oil Production Dip From Flaring Rule Change
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ILLISTON, N.D., Sept 18 (Reuters) - Some of North Dakota's oil companies likely will experience a production dip starting next month as they try to meet aggressive new flaring standards, Governor Jack Dalrymple said on Thursday.

Flaring, the wasteful burning of natural gas that is extracted alongside crude, has become a widespread problem in the state, the nation's second-largest oil producer.

In an effort to curb the problem, which harms quality of life and reduces tax revenue, state regulators will require companies to flare no more than 26 percent of produced gas starting Oct. 1, with standards tightening in the future.

If producers fail to meet the standards, they will have to curb production.

"A lot of people were surprised we took that step because there are going to be some operators impacted by this," Dalrymple, a Republican, said in a speech to the North Dakota Association of Oil and Gas Producing Counties. "We are very committed to reducing the flaring of natural gas."

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'I')f this turns out to be true, no doubt some doomers will get all excited. But of course it won't be for the reason they've been expecting.

North Dakota Governor Sees Oil Production Dip From Flaring Rule Change
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ILLISTON, N.D., Sept 18 (Reuters) - Some of North Dakota's oil companies likely will experience a production dip starting next month as they try to meet aggressive new flaring standards, Governor Jack Dalrymple said on Thursday.

Flaring, the wasteful burning of natural gas that is extracted alongside crude, has become a widespread problem in the state, the nation's second-largest oil producer.

In an effort to curb the problem, which harms quality of life and reduces tax revenue, state regulators will require companies to flare no more than 26 percent of produced gas starting Oct. 1, with standards tightening in the future.

If producers fail to meet the standards, they will have to curb production.

"A lot of people were surprised we took that step because there are going to be some operators impacted by this," Dalrymple, a Republican, said in a speech to the North Dakota Association of Oil and Gas Producing Counties. "We are very committed to reducing the flaring of natural gas."

[shallow sand]

Copious. I see Williston Basin posted price has dropped below $73. This would seem to put pressure on some of the Bakken and Three Forks projects?

[copious.abundance]

^
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', '[')url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/02/energy-crude-bakken-idUSL1N0MU21Z20140402]Bakken crude breakeven prices as low as $58/bbl in 2014 -report[/url]

[shallow sand]

Noticed the shale drillers stock prices off quite a bit since the price of crude started falling. Will market value erosion limit ability to continue rapid development? My shale driller, EGN has lost 1.6 billion in market cap. When I bought them in 1995 they were primarily a gas utility. The sold the gas utility business recently to Laclede for 1.6 billion. Ironic.

[shallow sand]

Looks like Williston posted price will be at $58 or below today. Copious, is that good or bad?

[copious.abundance]

Once again, not all Bakken drillers are getting $58 for their oil. It depends where they ship it to.

But at this point I don't think anyone knows what effect the price drop will have. It's been such a rapid drop I would guess a lot of drilling companies are still taking a wait-and-see attitude.

[shallow sand]

Are you sure it depends where they ship it to as opposed to whether they are receiving a volume premium? Also, assume the larger players have a marketing division or subsidiary and maybe difficult to really tell how much they are netting. I am just getting info from Plains All-American crude price bulletins, which is available to everyone. If you know where there are some other sources of information, let me know.

Have looked at production in the past in CO & WY. In addition to being lower gravity, seemed there was quite a bit of basis risk out west due to transportation and other issues. It was not constant, could lose $10 or more pretty quickly.

I don't know much about Bakken profitability, I just get a little perturbed when there is talk about Bakken "break even" and no mention of the weak basis that is presently there. And not perturbed at posters here, but the media, who doesn't seem to even be aware of that issue. Look at corn basis in ND, it was selling for under $2 per bu. recently. I agree, no reason to panic yet, but I do hope for somewhat of a slow down rather than an all out price war, which is not good in the end if it causes rigs to be stacked.