[copious.abundance]

Your first link requires a subscription.

If you're talking about global numbers, you're off-topic, since this thread was supposed to be a thread about whether or not the US economy was about to slip into a double-dip, or go into a meltdown, or whatever.

Also, if you start at 2000 I wouldn't be surprised. After all, in 2000 the price of oil had fallen to - what? - $20/barrel? That's hardly going to encourage much investment for several years. On the other hand, if you start around 2007-10 the price of oil was plenty high then to get oil companies to think about spending money.

[kublikhan]

See if this link works for you for that broken link I posted earlier:
Movement in prices and US upstream spending

Would you like me to create a new thread for this topic? Because I would really like to see if you have a better response to this than "that's off topic".

The oil price in 2000 was climbing, not falling. It had risen to it's highest value in nearly a decade:
Oil Price Chart

[copious.abundance]

Your chart shows exactly what one would expect with oil prices rising starting in the mid-2000's: Rising capex spending.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he oil price in 2000 was climbing, not falling. It had risen to it's highest value in nearly a decade:

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'G')o here, type in 1990 as the start date and press "Make Chart." The price of oil was flat around $20 from 1900 to 2000. If you look at the monthly data you see that the year 2000 itself featured oil prices in the high-20's to low-30's range, but fell back to $20 in late 2001-early 2002. That is NOT going to encourage investment. It wasn't until around 2003 that you saw the beginnings of a sustained rise in oil prices. THAT is going to encourage investment, and even then there's going to be a delayed effect as oil companies make sure it's not just a short-lived thing. So you can't really talk about oil capex in any serious manner until at least the mid-2000's. Prior to that the price of oil had simply been too low for too long.

[copious.abundance]

OK, let's start at 1858 - all the way to the beginning! Since 1858, oil production has climbed by infinity, and oil capex spending has also climbed by infinity. So they even out. Issue resolved!

This is getting waaay off topic.

[kublikhan]

I did offer to start a new thread, you ignored me. I think the quality of your response speaks for itself.

[copious.abundance]

I'm not stopping you from starting a new thread.

[copious.abundance]

Back on topic ....

Note that I did not editorialize this article title!



U.S. Job Openings Now More Than 4 Million: Opportunities Galore
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')merican businesses claim over and over that they cannot find people with the required skills or with the proper qualifications to fill job openings. It turns out that Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the so-called JOLTS report for the month of November. While there is a one-month lag on this versus unemployment and payrolls, the Labor Department showed that job openings in America are now at 4.001 million.

What stands out the most about this report is that the 4 million job openings threshold has not been seen since March of 2008. That puts the openings at nearly a six-year high! This 4.001 million is also 84% higher than the series low in July 2009.

Geographic and workforce limitations are going to always be serious issues to an economy with full employment, but there exists here an opportunity now to remedy the U.S. unemployment issue once and for all. The number of counted unemployed people per job opening is also at a post-recession low.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover report is a signal that the labor market is still slowly on the mend. It is also comes with a hint of a suggestion that the Federal Reserve can continue tapering its bond buying activities. There were 4.001 million job openings at the end of November, versus 3.931 million at the end of October.

The hires rate came to 3.3% in November, while the separations rate came to 3.1%. This was effectively unchanged from October. BLS data showed that there were 4.494 million hires in November, versus 4.484 million in October.

[...]

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'T')he Great Recovery has now almost achieved 1940s levels of manufacturing employment

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e can agree that the manufacturing recovery has had a minimal effect on the labor market

[Loki]

Oily, I'm glad we agree that the recovery of manufacturing is just another indicator that the 5% have recovered. Thank the gods for that, the 5% have recovered. Yay.

So how long should I hold my breath before the labor market has recovered? And median income? Because, ya know, that's what really matters to the vast majority of Americans.

As for manufacturing jobs, yes, wages are significantly higher.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n average, hourly wages and salaries for manufacturing jobs were $29.75 an hour in 2010 compared to $27.47 an hour for non-manufacturing jobs. Total hourly compensation, which includes employer-provided benefits, was $38.27 for workers in manufacturing jobs and $32.84 for workers in non-manufacturing jobs, a 17 percent premium. Even after controlling for demographic, geographic, and job characteristics, manufacturing jobs maintained significant wage and benefit premiums.

http://www.esa.doc.gov/sites/default/fi ... al5912.pdf

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'Y')es, but just think how many more opportunities there would be for young women to degrade themselves for minimum wage if the manufacturing robots bought more coffee.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow many bikini coffees do you think these manufacturing robots purchase per day? Try to quantify on a scale from 0 to 10.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'O')ily, I'm glad we agree that the recovery of manufacturing is just another indicator that the 5% have recovered.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'B')ut think how many more opportunities there would be for young women with limited options to degrade themselves for minimum wage if the manufacturing robots bought more coffee. Maybe if the robots could be programmed to drink coffee, 20 year old women wouldn't have to take their shirts off to pay the rent.

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'T')hat chart says absolutely nothing about people's desires or work ethic. It's just absolute numbers. If Americans were as eager to work in manufacturing as you claim they are, then you wouldn't see so much of this. And I note, that article tells a lot about your claim that manufacturing jobs are high-paying. Quite a lot of them aren't. You might want to read this, too. I repeat: You're glamorizing and being nostalgic about something which is hardly worthy of being glamorized and getting nostalgic over. Like most doomers, you idolize a past which wasn't nearly as good as you think it was.

No, I'm arguing that the decline in manufacturing jobs is irrelevant, because not many people want those jobs anyway. For your reference I'll quote what I said above:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'S')ince there are not hoards of people wanting manufacturing jobs, as you did explain (see below), the fact that the manufacturing recovery has had little effect on the labor market is completely irrelevant as to whether or not the "95 percent" has been benefiting.

[Scrub Puller]

Yair . . . copious abundance. Your constant barrage of charts and numbers gets a little mind numbing . . . I have been around for long enough to know that thinking in averages is geekspeak bullshit.

Got a few acquaintances 'Stateside and they reckon it's pretty difficult to come up with your published payrate numbers . . . they respectfully suggest you migrate to the real world.

Cheers.

[Loki]

Oh, by the way, your median household income chart above is not adjusted for inflation or seasonally adjusted.

Here's one that is:



Another one from NYT.

I appreciate your interest in my personal employment, but I have plenty of work, thanks. I've chosen an even less desirable job than manufacturing, I'm a farmer Funny, I keep hearing from folks like you that Americans don't want to work in agriculture, yet here I am....

How about you Oily, care to give up your disability check and do an honest day's work on the farm?

[ROCKMAN]

Actually the trade deficit from oil imports have increased in this latest cycle. While increased domestic production combined with some demand/conservation destruction has reduced the NUMBER OF BBLS of oil we import the rise in oil prices (which has driven the rise in US oil production) have resulted in SENDING MORE US $'s OVERSEAS than during the days when we were importing more oil. And while increased domestic production has partially lessened the amount of $'s we send to the oil exporters then if production hadn't increased the American consumer is paying 3X as much per domestic bbl than they were about 10 years ago. The change in domestic oil dynamics have been fantastic for the Rockman and his cohorts. For the vast majority of Americans...not so much.

[lasseter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
') While increased domestic production combined with some demand/conservation destruction has reduced the NUMBER OF BBLS of oil we import the rise in oil prices (which has driven the rise in US oil production) have resulted in SENDING MORE US $'s OVERSEAS.