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The real deficit

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

The real deficit

Unread postby smiley » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 14:45:29

The US government released its Annual Financial Report. In it are some very interesting facts. But the reals stunning part is the deficit (page 11).

http://www.gao.gov/financial/04frusg.pdf

It shows that the balance, or Total Assets minusTotal Liabilities and Net Responsibilities increased from:

- $35 trillion (!)

to

- $46 trillion (!)

That is an whopping $11 trillion increase, or a 30% increase from the 2003 total or 1.4 times all the public debt that the United States has collected in its entire existence.
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Unread postby Jack » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 15:35:16

That's amazing. If one combines peak oil with fiscal insanity, I wonder how anyone can conclude that a soft crash will be the outcome.
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Re: The real deficit

Unread postby spot5050 » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 15:57:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', 'T')he US government released its Annual Financial Report. In it are some very interesting facts. But the reals stunning part is the deficit (page 11).

http://www.gao.gov/financial/04frusg.pdf

It shows that the balance, or Total Assets minusTotal Liabilities and Net Responsibilities increased from:

- $35 trillion (!)

to

- $46 trillion (!)

That is an whopping $11 trillion increase, or a 30% increase from the 2003 total or 1.4 times all the public debt that the United States has collected in its entire existence.

I'm not quite sure what you're saying. Are you just getting freaked out by the size of the numbers? The US is big, so the numbers will be big. You've put exclaimation marks by both the $35t figure and the $46t figure so you are freaked out by both, yes?
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Unread postby gnm » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 16:25:56

Well according to the CIA world factbook the US has a GDP of $11Trillion "purchasing power" whatever that means. So personally I'm pretty freaked out by having a deficit that is 3-5 times the GDP. Realistically has any country in history ever survied deficits of that level? I mean over a period of decades? Nope..


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Unread postby FoxV » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 16:32:28

I would liken this to a person's total debt including house mortgage so the numbers only make sense when compared to the person's income.

So what's the rule of thumb, if total debt exceeds your gross income by a factor of 4 your over extended.

Anybody have numbers for the US governments income

edit---
I personally think your in trouble with a debt more than 4X your gross income, not just over extended
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Unread postby smiley » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 18:34:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nybody have numbers for the US governments income


It's 1.8 trillion. That's why I put the exclamation marks at the numbers. The US is certainly a big country but not that big. However most of the $45 trillion is not interest bearing debt, like a mortgage. 'Only' $8 trillion is interest bearing debt.

Most of it are future obligations to pay like Medicare, pensions and social insurance. When you break that promise the deficit disappears. So that is what is going to happen. Somewhere in the future they are going to say: "Sorry there is no money, forget Medicare".

That is my point. Bush is promising all sorts of improvements in Medicare and Social Security, while he knows that the government will not and cannot fulfill those promises.

Meanwhile he is raiding social security and Medicare. The report painfully points out that he is spending all the money that should have been reserved for these things is gone. When they want to start drawing money from these funds all they will find are GWB I.O.U's.
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Unread postby Claudia » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 20:11:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's 1.8 trillion. That's why I put the exclamation marks at the numbers. The US is certainly a big country but not that big. However most of the $45 trillion is not interest bearing debt, like a mortgage. 'Only' $8 trillion is interest bearing debt.

Most of it are future obligations to pay like Medicare, pensions and social insurance. When you break that promise the deficit disappears. So that is what is going to happen. Somewhere in the future they are going to say: "Sorry there is no money, forget Medicare".


Okay. That makes sense. I guess a lot of us are expecting this to happen.

I'm really depressed that nobody seems to be upset about this, out in everyday life. The ones that do care feel so shut out of the political system at this point, we're in a state of learned helplessness where our government is concerned.
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Unread postby MD » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 20:17:10

As stated before, our government is "spending money like there is no tomorrow".

They either are being profoundly foolish, or they do not believe there is a tomorrow.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Unread postby jaws » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 20:19:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'A')s stated before, our government is "spending money like there is no tomorrow".

They either are being profoundly foolish, or they do not believe there is a tomorrow.
When you're a politician, there's no such thing as the future. Only the next election matters. If cutting back on spending makes you lose the election, you just keep spending and hope that in your next term the problem will go away.
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Unread postby FoxV » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 22:18:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Claudia', 'I')'m really depressed that nobody seems to be upset about this, out in everyday life.

I think there's a very common attitude in our modern culture that "if it doesn't hurt now, it'll never hurt at all". People won't start getting upset until they start applying for their social security and all they get are rubber checks.

in the meantime, earning $50K/year and qualifying for a 125% mortgage on a $800,000 house is a great way to appease the masses. I think the general public should be ashamed at how easily its being fooled.
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solution?

Unread postby Cool Hand Linc » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 22:32:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I'), Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the United States of America, do declare that said national emergency still continues to exist and pursuant to said section to do hereby prohibit the hoarding gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States by individuals, partnerships, associations and corporations and hereby prescribe the following regulations for carrying out the purposes of the order:


Dated: 5 April, 1933
Presidential Executive Order 6102

All the President need do is write it off! Take everybodies gold. Give you pennies on the dollar for it. Then revalue the gold to a higher value.

Roosevelt did it!

I guess I should supply a link. http://www.the-privateer.com/1933-gold- ... ation.html
Peace out!

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Unread postby joewp » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 23:37:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'A')s stated before, our government is "spending money like there is no tomorrow".

They either are being profoundly foolish, or they do not believe there is a tomorrow.
When you're a politician, there's no such thing as the future. Only the next election matters. If cutting back on spending makes you lose the election, you just keep spending and hope that in your next term the problem will go away.


Especially when you're a politcian that's a dry-drunk born again christian, you think you're bringing on Armagedon or something.
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"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
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Unread postby LadyRuby » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 23:53:01

I believe Bush, Inc. is the first US president to cut taxes while at war, mostly for the wealthiest Americans. Wrong man, wrong time, for too many reasons to name. I once heard someone say on NPR's Smiley Tavis show something like if Bush had been a black man, he wouldn't have been elected president of the local money mart.
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Unread postby CalgaryEng » Sat 18 Jun 2005, 19:47:05

joewp alludes to an important point when he mentions that Bush is a born again christian. In my day to day life I tend not to encounter the beliefs of a signficant proportion of the population. I forget that there are tens of millions including Bush who believe that the god thing they believe in will soon end the world as we know it and establish some sort of theocracy with jesus christ in charge. The problems we identify concerning resource depletion and environmental degradation are completely irrelevant. Only a pinko atheist tree hugging commie is concerned about such things. People of true faith know that the god thing will provide for them and clean things up after they get rid of athiests like me. I think they are in for a surprise as things get really bad and the rapture does not occur.

When I travel I sometimes listen to the fundamentalist radio stations to remind myself of the sort of people who have significant power in the world today. Peak oil is just not a problem. The only important issue is your personal relationship with jesus christ. I cannot imagine how one could get one's head more deeply buried in the sand.
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Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 18 Jun 2005, 22:58:11

.

CalgaryEng said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen I travel I sometimes listen to the fundamentalist radio stations to remind myself of the sort of people who have significant power in the world today. Peak oil is just not a problem. The only important issue is your personal relationship with jesus christ. I cannot imagine how one could get one's head more deeply buried in the sand.



What you are witnessing here is what happens when an Informational Entity aquires precedence by disregarding the welfare of the biological host that maintains it. It is a form of bio-cognitive insanity.


.
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