[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '&')quot;The pressure drop along the propped fracture allows hydrocarbons to flow from the shale in the immediate proximity of the created fracture into the fracture." I've never seen a single flow model that allowed the extremely low permeability of any shale formation to flow a commercial volume of hydrocarbons from the shale matrix alone. I would be thrilled if you could show me one

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'S')am - So I take it you consider ever accident evidence of malfeasance: every industrial accident, every airline accident, every school bus accident as wee as every other automobile accident.

[rockdoc123]

Rockman wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve never seen a single flow model that allowed the extremely low permeability of any shale formation to flow a commercial volume of hydrocarbons from the shale matrix alone. I would be thrilled if you could show me one

[ROCKMAN]

Sam - There are many thousands of wells that have produced a lot of oil/NG which were never frac'd. That wasn't what I said, was it? Some of the best wells produced from tite reservoirs did so from naturally occurring fractures. In 1979 I completed a well on the Carmine lease outside of Giddings that flowed 600 bopd from the non-frac'd Austin Chalk. This well offset a well drilled by Mosbacher. They had such severe lost circulation from the natural fractures the had to junk and abandon it.

As far as doc's respond it didn't answer my request: show me just one flow calculation where a commercial rate of hydrocarbon can be achieved from an unfractured (manmade or natural) from any rock matrix with a permeability measured in a thousanths or even a hundredth of a milladarcy.

I wish I could give all the non-geogeeks here some everyday examples of what were debating. Some of the materials in your homes that you wouldn't think much fluid could easily flow thru is a permeable as a spaghetti sieve compared to NON- FRACTURED shale.

I'll make it easy: show me the flow calculation of a 3,000' lateral hole thru an unfractured shale with a perm of 0.1 md assuming dry gas. I'll even let you pick a ridiculously high pressure differential. Just show me a commercial flow rate and you win.

[ROCKMAN]

Sam - Sorry...misread your emphasis. Just for the fun of it I looked up the stats. During the last 5 years between 11 and 18 hands per were killed on rigs as a result of "fires and explosions". That includes accidents other than blow outs but the B. Of Labor Stats didn't break it down further. By comparison last year in the US:

6000 killed texting while driving
8 children killed while riding a school bus
54 folks were killed by dogs
20 were folks killed by ants
82 folks died from falling out of their beds

Obviously I left out the biggies out like car and all other on the job accidents. That would be to easy. I wonder what the public attitude would be about flat screen TV's and unattended mop buckets that are responsible for more child deaths per year than from all the blow outs on the planet during the average year if they gave those accidents the same coverage.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'S')am - There are many thousands of wells that have produced a lot of oil/NG which were never frac'd. That wasn't what I said, was it?

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
')Obviously I left out the biggies out like car and all other on the job accidents. That would be to easy. I wonder what the public attitude would be about flat screen TV's and unattended mop buckets that are responsible for more child deaths per year than from all the blow outs on the planet during the average year if they gave those accidents the same coverage.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')s far as doc's respond it didn't answer my request: show me just one flow calculation where a commercial rate of hydrocarbon can be achieved from an unfractured (manmade or natural) from any rock matrix with a permeability measured in a thousanths or even a hundredth of a milladarcy.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The shale rock itself isn't producing all that oil/NG. It is coming from those natural fractures that have taken millions of years to accumulate the hydrocarbons in them.

[ROCKMAN]

doc/sam - That's great. I'm still waiting to see the simple flow calculation as to how much oil/NG can flow out of an unfractured shale matrix with just a fraction of a md perm. As I said earlier I'll even allow an unrealistic high pressure differential. Now show me how much oil/NG will flow out of a 6" diameter hole through 100' of unfractured shale matrix. I await with baited breath. LOL.

And though it's been a while I once saw the juice flowing out of the formation in a TV vid. And it was coming from fractures that clearly showed up on the Schlumberger FMI log. But could really see the fractures on the vid itself. So I suppose it would look like it was coming out of the matrix.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m still waiting to see the simple flow calculation as to how much oil/NG can flow out of an unfractured shale matrix with just a fraction of a md perm.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'd')oc/sam - That's great. I'm still waiting to see the simple flow calculation as to how much oil/NG can flow out of an unfractured shale matrix with just a fraction of a md perm.

[ROCKMAN]

The interesting side note to the expansion of EFS oil production isn't the volume but where it's going. From Rig Zone: " Energy Transfer Partners will convert a Texas natural gas pipeline system to move Eagle Ford shale crude and condensate to Trafigura's Corpus Christi terminal, the companies said on Thursday. The agreement calls for Energy Transfer to convert the 82-mile (132 km) pipeline system to move about 100,000 barrels per day of crude and condensate from the prolific shale oil play to Trafigura's growing terminal operation. The converted South Texas pipeline system is expected to start up in the next nine months to a year. They are also is building a second deepwater dock, 850 feet long with a 45-foot draft, capable of loading an Aframax vessel at the Corpus Christi terminal. When finished by the first quarter next year, the second dock, combined with existing infrastructure, will allow Trafigura to berth three medium-range tankers and two inland barges simultaneously. The terminal's capacity also will increase. Since mid-2011, Trafigura has delivered Eagle Ford crude and condensate, offloading output from trucks onto barges for shipment to U.S. Gulf Coast terminals. Jeff Kopp, Trafigura's director of oil for North America, said the project will give Eagle Ford producers the "maximum amount of flexibility" to get their output to markets.

What's interesting is that they don't care to explain the "maximum amount of flexibility" aspect. It's the ability to not only haul oil to Gulf Coast refineries but also to ones in eastern Canada. Thanks to another previously reversed pipeline at least 50,000 bbls per day of EFS oil is being shipped to Corpus Christi where tankers wait 10 - 20 days to be loaded before they haul the oil up the east coast to the Canadian refineries. As described below it's more profitable, despite the shipping costs, to do so.

And another surprise for folks who have been distracted over the plans for the Keystone Pipeline system to ship Alberta oil to the US: were you aware that almost 200,000 bbls of US oil has been shipped via a pipeline to Alberta with plans to increase to over 300,000 bpd? From Rig Zone again: How to Profit From Canada's Crude Oil Shortage

"Yes, you read that headline correctly. In spite of surging production from the Alberta oil sands, Canada is in the midst of an oil shortage. According to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, bitumen output from the Alberta oil sands is projected to double by 2022 to 3.8 million barrels per day. The problem with bitumen is that it's too thick to flow freely on its own. It must be mixed with a super-light oil called condensate so that it can be shipped through pipelines. With growing oil sands production, condensate demand is poised to sky-rocket as well. Based on estimates provided by the Energy Resource Conservation Board, the demand for condensate in Alberta could double to 650,000 bpd within the next decade. Today, condensate is the most prized hydrocarbon in Alberta with the light oil trading for a 10% premium over West Texas Intermediate. Analysts fear shortages could result as imports struggle to keep up with demand.

Yet south of the 49th parallel, the United States is facing a condensate glut. In the Texas Eagle Ford, condensate production accounts for as much as 30% of output. With forecasters projecting Eagle Ford production to exceed one million barrels per day by next year, much of that will be condensate. But here's the problem. Nearby Gulf coast refineries aren't well equipped to handle the super light oil bubbling out of the Texas shale. Over the last decade, refineries spent billions of dollars outfitting their plants to process heavy sour blends. Additionally, refining condensate isn't profitable. The light oil doesn't produce the higher value distillates used to make diesel or jet fuel. So with an unexpected surge in condensate production and low demand from refineries, you have a recipe for low prices. In general, Gulf coast refineries have been paying $15 per barrel less for condensate than light oil varieties. That's great for downstream marketers. But that discount is coming right out of the pockets of shale producers.

Canada needs condensate. The U.S. has too much of the stuff. The challenge is moving it. Who's poised to profit? At the moment, the only way to export condensate to Canada is through the Enbridge Southern Lights pipeline which transports 180,000 bpd from Illinois to Alberta. The problem is shipping condensate from Texas to Patoka, Illinois where the line begins. Kinder Morgan Energy Partners is trying to position itself as the leading condensate shipper. The company built a condensate pipeline that can move 300,000 bpd from the shale basin to the Houston area. From Houston, condensate can be shipped through a third-party Explorer pipeline to Hammond, Illinois. Admittedly Illinois is still on long way from northern Alberta. To get the condensate the rest of the way Kinder Morgan has two strategies. First, extend the Explorer pipeline to connect with Southern Lights. That link should be in service by 2014. Second, connect Explorer to the company's existing Cochin pipeline. Propane volumes along the route have been in decline anyway. The company is looking to reverse and expand Cochin to start shipping condensate to Alberta.
At the moment, the only way to export condensate to Canada is through the Enbridge Southern Lights pipeline which transports 180,000 bpd from Illinois to Alberta. The problem is shipping condensate from Texas to Patoka, Illinois where the line begins."

And since none of these plans require a new border crossing pipeline no approval of the POTUS is required. Also notice the flexibility to ship EFS oil via tanker to Houston from where it can be pipelined to Alberta. This might seem like an exorbitant amount of oil movement but remember it's a system designed to handle not $billions of future commerce but $TRILLIONS.

[ROCKMAN]

Go Eagle Ford!!! Interesting that even with the production surge oil is still very pricey. From RigZone;

Texas produced oil at a record rate in September, according to data by the EIA. Daily crude oil production in the Lone Star State for the month averaged 2.7 million barrels of oil, the highest figure since the EIA began tracking monthly figures in 1981. In less than three years, Texas has more than doubled its year-on-year daily oil production, based on the September daily average figure. University of Michigan economist Mark Perry noted that oil production in Texas had increased by more than 25% year-on-year for 25 months in a row. “Output in America’s No. 1 oil-producing state – Texas – continues its phenomenal, meteoric rise,” Perry wrote. “That production surge has to be one of the most significant increases in oil output ever recorded in the U.S. over such a short period of time.” The all-time monthly Texas record for oil production was 3.4 million barrels of oil per day in 1972, according to the Texas Railroad Commission. However, production has been on the decline since at least 1981.

But it's also good to remember the risk of being put on a high pedestal: it can lead to a long painful fall one day.

[Plantagenet]

The shallower parts of the EF are now producing oil using waterless fracking. These shales contain clays that hydrate and expand and decrease permeability if tracked using water but produce just fine w waterless fracking

This opens up a large new area of the EF to development

waterless fracking in the EF delivers oil

[ROCKMAN]

P – Interesting. Must be a very new well since the TRRC has no report of any recent EFS well coming on line in Maverick County since Newfield brought in the # 2806H Cage Ranch well one year ago. Initial production rate was 9 bopd with no NG reported. The only other EFS producers coming on line in the county in the last three years were a total of 7 that had initial production rates of 1, 1, 2, 9, 31, 34 and 165 bopd. After 2.2 years that 165 bopd well has made 22k bo and is down to 10 bopd.

No mention of any well operated by Terrace Energy at all. But the TRRC is usually several months behind in their postings. I did find one report that the well produced 11,500 bo in the first 15 days. Time will tell about the decline rate. Oil-based fracs for water sensitive formations is a decades old method. Did my first one about 20 years ago. Maybe they’ve discovered a magic bullet for the EFS in Maverick County. They’ll need it: folks have been poking the EFS in that county for a long time. There have only been 36 wells completed in the EFS in Maverick County since the beginning of the oil age. The best well has made 39k bo since it went online in April of 1980. The best hz well came on in Aug 2010 and has made 26k bo. It came on at 200 bopd and is now down to 45 bopd. Maverick Country has not been a very good place to drill the EFS.

Time will tell if those Canadian lads will change the story. But I might wait a year to see where that well is at before I would start counting those eggs.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
')No mention of any well operated by Terrace Energy at all. But the TRRC is usually several months behind in their postings. I did find one report that the well produced 11,500 bo in the first 15 days. Time will tell about the decline rate. Oil-based fracs for water sensitive formations is a decades old method. Did my first one about 20 years ago. Maybe they’ve discovered a magic bullet for the EFS in Maverick County. They’ll need it: folks have been poking the EFS in that county for a long time. There have only been 36 wells completed in the EFS in Maverick County since the beginning of the oil age. The best well has made 39k bo since it went online in April of 1980. The best hz well came on in Aug 2010 and has made 26k bo. It came on at 200 bopd and is now down to 45 bopd. Maverick Country has not been a very good place to drill the EFS.

[ROCKMAN]

Sub - That requires assuming a number of factors. Obviously oil price determines if drilling activity continues at the current pace. Then there's a question of continued capex availability by the oil patch. And finally it doesn't matter how high the price of oil and how much capex we have to spend, once the majority of viable locations are drilled production will fall. Every trend ever developed eventually gets drilled up.

So I can offer a wide range of answers depending upon what assumptions I choose to make. And since I don't have that magical ability of accurately predicting future oil prices I don't have a freaking idea what/when PEFS is reached.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
')But it's also good to remember the risk of being put on a high pedestal: it can lead to a long painful fall one day.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'S')ub - That requires assuming a number of factors. Obviously oil price determines if drilling activity continues at the current pace. Then there's a question of continued capex availability by the oil patch. And finally it doesn't matter how high the price of oil and how much capex we have to spend, once the majority of viable locations are drilled production will fall. Every trend ever developed eventually gets drilled up.

So I can offer a wide range of answers depending upon what assumptions I choose to make. And since I don't have that magical abilityg of accurately predicting future oil prices I don't have a freaking idea what/when PEFS is reached.