[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MisterB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you are in Britain, is time to hit the supermarket, and go to the canned food section, it may not be this week, it may not even be this month, but it will come and it will be ugly.

[JPL]

Sigh... we in Britain have years of this crap ahead of us, you won't turn a G8 member into a banana republic overnight - and food shortages would probably be a minor comedy compared with exploding social unrest, crime and hyperinflation.

Stocking up the cellar with canned meat is an admirable response but it will not change the future at all. Sorry...

JP

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19978900
The "worst may still be ahead" for the banking system, the Bank of England's deputy governor has told a gathering of leading bankers.

Paul Tucker said reserves held by banks were still not calibrated for the "end-of-the-world risks" that remained a possibility.

He added that bank bosses should be paid in debt, so they had a stake in the survival of their institutions.

Mr Tucker is a leading contender to be the Bank of England's next governor.
....

He said that by paying banks' leadership in IOUs from their own banks, they would have a "powerful incentive" to ensure they are run safely.

[ROCKMAN]

Question for our Brit cousins: they discuss capping NG and electricity prices but I don't see the method. Does the plan use gov't subsidies to offset the higher costs or does it allow a loss of supplies if the utilities are unable to pay the imported market rates? Everyone would like lower prices but not if it means freezing in the dark.

From: http://www.downstreamtoday.com/news/art ... a_id=40834

Reuters - Britain's Labour Party has seized the initiative by promising to freeze gas and electricity prices for 20 months if it wins the next general election, due in May 2015, putting utilities and its political opponents on the defensive. Price freezes may be poor policy, perhaps even irresponsible, but as a way to seize political advantage the pledge was a master-stroke, pushing questions about the cost of living to the top of the political agenda.

Concerns about high living costs resonate with voters more than fears about crime, immigration, unemployment or any other subject except healthcare and public services, according to polling firm YouGov. Polls show two-thirds of voters worry they will not have enough money to live comfortably over the next two to three years.

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'Q')uestion for our Brit cousins: they discuss capping NG and electricity prices but I don't see the method. Does the plan use gov't subsidies to offset the higher costs or does it allow a loss of supplies if the utilities are unable to pay the imported market rates?

[ROCKMAN]

d - Thanks. I suspected it was just politics as usual. Price controls can do a good job of keeping costs down to the consumer. Unfortunately they can also do a bang up job of reducing availability. That's why I guessed it was more talk than meaningful action. Folks might not vote for you if they are getting high utility bills. But they for sure aren't going to vote for you if they're sitting in the dark freezing.

[dorlomin]

The government has responded by announcing a freeze on the increase of fuel duty.

Uk oil consumption has been falling for a few years. Down from 1.820 million bpd in 06 to 1.6 million bpd in 11. About 10% drop. So price of energy is a big issue on the doorstep.

Bicycle sales are booming though.

[ROCKMAN]

d - "However, he said he hoped to extend the freeze on fuel duty, which has already stretched more than two and a half years, by cancelling the 2p-a-litre rise pencilled in by former Labour chancellor Alistair Darling for September 2014 . "Provided we can find the savings to pay for it, I want to freeze fuel duty for the rest of this Parliament," said Mr Osborne to loud applause. "Conservatives don't just talk about being on the side of hard-working people. We show it day in day out in the policies we deliver." If Mr Osborne scraps the rise in next year's Budget as planned, motorists will save £750 million a year, leaving pump prices 20p a litre lower than under the plans inherited from Labour and bringing the total reduction in the tax burden to £22.6 billion over the course of the Parliament, said aides.

There...take that you commie Labour dudes. Glad you Brits have risen above the petty political games we Yanks play. LOL.

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
')There...take that you commie Labour dudes. Glad you Brits have risen above the petty political games we Yanks play. LOL.

[ROCKMAN]

Reuters - Britain faces a tight winter gas season as it relies heavily on struggling Norwegian supplies and has few alternatives to source cheap gas elsewhere. Britain already relies heavily on Norwegian imports to meet its needs and analysts say this dependency is set to rise as Russian gas will mainly go to continental Europe, while shipments of overseas LNG will mostly head to Asia, where customers pay more for gas.

The new gas year starts on October 1, when European gas buyers and sellers adjust supply volumes ahead of the peak demand winter heating season. But Norway's biggest gas field Troll, which accounts for around 35 percent of its gas production, has had its capacity reduced for much of this year, and its operator says supplies will be limited until 2014.

They expect to see somewhat reduced capacity into the winter at the Troll field due to technical issues at Troll A. Norway's gas system operator Gassco said production capacity would be reduced by 34 million cubic metres per day until September 2014, compared with a capacity of up to 120 mcm of gas per day before the outage.

Norway normally produces gas at full capacity during the coldest months, and Troll's outage leaves no flexibility to ramp-up production to meet peak demand in case both the UK and continental Europe freeze. News about Norway's gas outage extending throughout the winter has forced British gas traders to buy more forward contracts in order to hedge against any further supply disruptions from Britain's key gas supplier.

Should Norwegian supplies not meet demand in case of a cold British winter, UK customers could begin importing gas from continental Europe, which receives most of its gas from Russia. But analysts say such a switch would come at a high cost, forcing British customers to pay above Russian oil-indexed gas prices to attract flows from continental Europe. Point Carbon estimates Russian oil-indexed price at 74-78 pence per therm, compared with current UK spot prices of under 65 pence and average winter prices of below 70 pence per therm.

[ROCKMAN]

UK Fracking Industry Must Highlight Lower Bills, Job Creation

From: http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/1 ... b_Creation

“The energy industry must emphasize lower bills as well as job creation if it wants UK public support for fracking, according to a consumer survey published Thursday by market research firm Viewbank.”

That would be funny if it weren’t so sad for my Brit cousins. They must being paying too much attention to our cornucopians. The boom in both oil and NG (when it was booming before the price collapse) development was and is the result of higher prices. Unless the Brits think their shales will be much more productive than ours and that they can do it a lot cheaper than we do it, the requirement of “lower bills” fails before the effort even begins. Maybe some of our Brit cohorts here can pass the word onto the fellow countrymen.

[Tarrel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'U')K Fracking Industry Must Highlight Lower Bills, Job Creation

From: http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/1 ... b_Creation

“The energy industry must emphasize lower bills as well as job creation if it wants UK public support for fracking, according to a consumer survey published Thursday by market research firm Viewbank.”

That would be funny if it weren’t so sad for my Brit cousins. They must being paying too much attention to our cornucopians. The boom in both oil and NG (when it was booming before the price collapse) development was and is the result of higher prices. Unless the Brits think their shales will be much more productive than ours and that they can do it a lot cheaper than we do it, the requirement of “lower bills” fails before the effort even begins. Maybe some of our Brit cohorts here can pass the word onto the fellow countrymen.

[Tarrel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'd') - "However, he said he hoped to extend the freeze on fuel duty, which has already stretched more than two and a half years, by cancelling the 2p-a-litre rise pencilled in by former Labour chancellor Alistair Darling for September 2014 . "Provided we can find the savings to pay for it, I want to freeze fuel duty for the rest of this Parliament," said Mr Osborne to loud applause. "Conservatives don't just talk about being on the side of hard-working people. We show it day in day out in the policies we deliver." If Mr Osborne scraps the rise in next year's Budget as planned, motorists will save £750 million a year, leaving pump prices 20p a litre lower than under the plans inherited from Labour and bringing the total reduction in the tax burden to £22.6 billion over the course of the Parliament, said aides.

There...take that you commie Labour dudes. Glad you Brits have risen above the petty political games we Yanks play. LOL.

[ROCKMAN]

Tarrel – Looks like it’s up to you to get the truth out. Good luck, amigo. LOL. My recommended attack plan: don’t bother to downgrade the potential productivity of English shale. Neither side can make a substantial argument either way today IMHO. This debate would turn into an endless sideshow. In fact talk up the potential to a ridiculous level.

So now you present yourself as a true Brit shale gas cornucopian…the Conservatives will want to adopt you. And once they do you can point out with great optimism that the UK can do just as we Yanks did when our NG prices were 3X times what they are today. Thus, of course, to duplicate our “success” all you Brits need do is start paying 3X as much for your NG as you do now. The basic supply/demand relationship: the more money the drillers demand the more NG they’ll supply.

Problem solved. LOL.

[Tarrel]

OK, so here's the strategy:

Become adopted as you suggest. Demonstrate unconditional support for Shale and therefore become "Call Me Dave"'s secretary of state for energy. Engineer a series of gas price hikes, ultimately leading to a 3x increase, citing dependence on imported gas from those pesky Russkies as a reason. Then bring the drillers on board, achieve a "massive" 20% "reduction" in gas prices. Gain unparalleled popular support. Make a bid for the leadership. Presto! Prime Minister in five years!

(Only one problem; I'd need to become a Conservative MP. Since I live in Scotland, and Conservatives up here are as welcome as a fox in the henhouse, I think it's unlikely.)

Ah well...

[ROCKMAN]

Tarrel - You may have to move then...the price of being a hero. BTW do you know what we call a conservative Yankee Republican politician in Texas...a Democrat. Really. There are northern Republican politicians that couldn't defeat a Texas Democrat...too liberal. LOL. That conservative/liberal tag can vary greatly depending where you are in the US.

[Tarrel]

No, that would be a "bridge too far". I'd rather stay put and leave the folks in the fracking fields to themselves.

Besides, we could be independent in a few years.

As, indeed, could you? (or is that being too impertinent and controversial?)

[ROCKMAN]

Tarrell - Are you referring to the Texas urban legend that we could withdraw from the US? A very popular idea in these parts when folks start getting irritated with the fed govt for whatever reason. You may know that Texas was once an independent country and not a territory of the US. Our joining the Union was a negotiated matter so there were a variety of stipulations. One of the actually laws is that unlike all other states Texas has sole control over offshore water for the first 10 miles from the coast. This is how Texas became the first state granting offshore wind leases and built the first offshore wind turbine pilot project. In the meantime fed govt efforts to build out offshore wind along the east coast continues to get blocked by local law suites.

I’ve never seen documentation of the claim that Texas can withdraw from the Union. But I do see a potential for a major upset when the US truly becomes desperate for energy. Back in the late 70’s when NG became a supply issue and Texas business had to shut down the state govt starting making noise about restricting shipments out of the state. A lot of heated rhetoric but it passed when the entire economy started to sink into recession. The most serious potential uproar might develop over oil/NG that the state actually owns. This is particularly true in the very hot west Texas basin where the state owns a good bit of mineral rights. For instance just the state university system this year will receive $1 billion from the royalties alone. As I understand it the state has the right to take its share of production in kind as opposed to a check. This would allow to state to earmark this oil to our refineries and not allow the products to be shipped out of state. Should this come to pass and other states complain a rebuttal from Texas would be a reference to govts of all the other states that have restricted oil/NG development.

I would anticipate such a scenario long before any serious talk of succession would develop. It would be an ugly development especially if the fed govt tried to prevent such efforts. Texas does have its own army that's larger than most of the rest of the countries in the world. Back in the unpleasant times of the late 70’s the governor here threatened to send our state guard to the borders and disrupt the NG flow. Just one more example of the potential for Texas politicians to go bat-shit crazy under the right circumstances.

[Tarrel]

Yes, that's what I was getting at. Interesting to read your insights, thanks.

[dorlomin]

Energy firms jacking up the price on retail energy by 8% atm. Blaming taxes, with no real reason. There has been a small increase in taxes but many of their profits jumped 40% last year.

They do however have a number (3 I think) of big thermal coal stations going to the scrapper this year as they have used up their allotted hours. This will see costs increase as they have to buy more gas. But they are not saying this.

Government cuts funding for energy efficiency plan.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... obligation

Would help people insulate their houses. People stay warmer for less energy, CO2 saving, increases national energy security. It ticks every box except good for the utilities profit margin and it costs some tax payers money.

Priories George, priorities.