[NorthernLine]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '/')derail.

[Beery1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristen', 'I')n Minneapolis, bikes lanes will be on most major roads.

[Guthrum]

Most of us want specific predictions about the future. How much the stock market rises or falls? How will I pay for my retirement? How much will petrol cost? What will be the best jobs? For such specific predictions, no one's crystal ball is any better than anyone else's - mine included. It's actually broken - it doesn't predict winning lottery tickets worth a damn! So for those, you're on your own.
General predictions about the future can be more accurate because vast amounts of data will depict trends. It doesn't mean "we" (the collective, mass "we") can do anything about the trend, but we do get reasonably accurate road signs. History also gives a guide if comparable fact scenarios can be discerned and analysed.
In terms of a general prediction about "collapse", the only thing we can predict for sure is that it will be very slow. The collapse of the Western Roman Empire took about 300 years - 180 (the death of Marcus Aurelius) to 485 (the bundling off of Romulus Augustulus). That's a process over a time span beyond the ken or witness of generations. The classic Maya collapse took about 150 years (roughly 800 to 950). Again, beyond the ken or witness of generations. These long periods are of course punctuated by black swans - events that erupt, have their effect and then fade. But the whole process is slow, slow, slow.
So to answer your question: in ten years time, the world, in aggregate, will look much like it does today, except there will be a slightly elevated level of economic and general stress due to peak oil and perhaps a black swan or two. You should prepare yourself for it - and no matter what, you will adapt. In 150 years however, we're back in the year 500. That will be right out of Martin of Tours: gangs of thugs fighting each other in the depopulated ruins. But none of us will be here for that.

[rollin]

Ten years from now the world will be entering or be in the midst of an economic depression. Twenty years from now will be vastly different from now, the details of which will be set by our actions in the next ten years.

Western culture will attempt to slowly convert to more sustainable energy sources and methods. However, the developing world will want to enjoy the growth and prosperity that western culture had. This will present a threat to western societies and cause new conflicts, thus distracting the world further from a path that might be successful. Eventually resource depletion and climate change will put so much stress on the system that collapses will occur world wide.

[GregT]

I think that it is almost impossible to forecast with any accuracy, at exactly what point in time that everything will unravel. There are far too many variables and different complex systems intertwined, to pinpoint the one that will start the dominoes to fall. If I were to take a guess, I would have to say that sometime between 2020, and 2030, modern industrial society will completely crash.

I see a perfect storm brewing, of resource scarcity, environmental degradation, overpopulation, non sustainable economic and monetary policies, demographics, and climatic disruptions. Any one of these alone has the potential to cause a fall. All of them are complex in nature, and all complex systems tend to not end with a slow decline, they tend to reach tipping points before rapid and catastrophic collapse.

The exponential function is often overlooked, or simply not understood. A quick look at any hockey stick shaped chart, shows that there is a point at which exponential growth (or decline) quickly goes to infinity. We are surrounded by hockey stick shaped charts, and they are telling us that trends are not linear, they are rapidly accelerating. Everywhere.

People tend to focus on only one, or even a couple of our predicaments. To not look at the big picture, is to not look at reality. The reality is, we have surpassed the carrying capacity of the planet earth, and we are living on borrowed time, provided to us by fossil fuels.

[AgentR11]

Here's some of the most blatant statements I've seen in public about what I've been describing:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-3 ... -risk.html

"Bernanke told lawmakers July 17 that low inflation poses a risk to the economy, and policy makers “will act as needed” to ensure it rises toward their goal. "

Deflation will not be permitted under any circumstances.

[radon1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NorthernLine', ' ')60+ million people in the UK live on an island that can't grow anywhere near enough food. We need the imports.

[Pops]

Aside from resource issues, the biggest "societal" change happening now is the transition to the "Jetson" economy. If you are old enough or had Nickelodeon you remember George Jetson, the guy in the future whose job, one hour a day one day a week was to push one button, one time.

George had a good life, a pretty wife (a homemaker overworked by the need to push a button to cook and clean), nice house on a pole up in the sky, a couple of flying saucers, 2 cute kids and a robotic maid. His boss, Mr. Spacely I think, was a grump as bosses are but had invested wisely in automation which made Geo's job so simple.

So here is the thing, what happens to the rest of us? Not everyone is cut out to be a one-button operator and even if we were, the point of automation is to pay as few as possible so that Spacely can pocket as much profit as possible.

The political pendulum has swung toward the owners easing their tax burden the last 50 years, that's part of the "wealth inequality" bit, but the far bigger factor is automation, transportation and labor arbitrage. The latter two will sort themselves out (though not in 10 years) but automation I think is the biggie. One way or another people need to make a living but not everyone is equipped to push that one button, and the whole point is to not need them to, not need them to do anything except consume.

So if everyone can't be like George, how does the future look to the average Joe?

The cartoon is no help but maybe a hint is that we never get to see the ground. Could be there is a good reason George and family are forced live up in the sky
.

[AgentR11]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'O')ne way or another people need to make a living...

[Pops]

You've always been right about one thing AR; fat people don't riot.

[rockdoc123]

my prediction for the future is we will all have flying cars, be able to push a button and get any kind of food delivered to us by some sort of computer and have robot maids named Rossie....hold on, I think that was a Hanna Babera cartoon when I was a youth based on the predictions of the late fifties (see Popular Mechanics/Popular Science) for what we should have seen not that long ago. Well it has to happen sooner or later....

I do have to say the fifties was a much more pleasant time....everyone was positive, if you were the kind of doom and gloomer that is more common these days someone would sort you out in a physical sort of way. Wonder where it all went awry?

[sparky]

.
Loved the Jetson , same as I loved the Flintstones
thoses were optimistic times , everybody was getting better off
the rate of power consumption is the rate of happiness