[Atr0p0s]

Scary stuff to read from my computer in the suburbs with a minivan in my driveway :\ I'll do what I can though, thanks pops.

[VMA131Marine]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Royale', 'T')his is what was meant, I didn't bother elaborating. 100 years from now is a ridiculously short time frame for billions of people to die. There's no need to scare monger when faced with something like that.

[Pops]

Hi VMA, I don't think you’ll get a response from Royale. I think he was member No. 1 on the original member list but he’s long gone. We are a really young board.

I won’t disagree with your point though.

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Atr0p0s', 'H')ey, John here. I'm 15 years old but relatively well educated when it comes to Peak Oil. I've read through most of the internet sources and some manuscripts of Peak Oil conferences and the likes. Ever since I heard about this about a month ago I've been preaching it to people, and I've become a firm believer in peak oil. But my views diverge from people who say

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b')illions of people are going to die.

[sheilach]

We are fast running out of time to act and prepare ourselves for the decline to come.
It's unfortunate that most of us live in cities or huge, spread out suberbs with tiny yards too small for self sufficiancy.

Too many of us chose to have too many children inspite of the decades long warnings from people like Paul Ehrlich about overpopulation.
Those warnings were ignored by the economist who run "our" government and now we are in a impossible to solve mess.

I still am reading articles about how to geneticly modify crops to grow MORE food for the growing masses.
Why won't they learn that "feeding" the problem will only make it worse?

Why aren't they instead concentrating on better, cheaper BIRTH CONTROL?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e will not see the instant death of 90% of the world population. It will, instead, be a long slow decline that brings us down to the 1-2 billion people level say one hundred years from now. Other "scare mongers" also believe that there will be nuclear holocaust and widespread wars

[Pops]

It's interesting to see old threads brought up. I think this was the fourth thread on this site and one of the first I posted to. There certainly are more Peak Oilists here now, and at any one time there are 3-4 times as many guests as reg. users online. Page views passed ½ million recently and there are some very intelligent people here, but as Aaron pointed out somewhere you have to be fairly smart to do the research or even be interested in the first place.

Actually She. I think little old ladies are going to become a valuable resource! Hang in there.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'H')ello all,

It seems to me that it is pretty obvious that any finite resource will have a mid point of availability. It isn’t a huge leap them to understand that the high point of discovery indicates the eventual high point of production. While economists can wax about “demand destruction” and “replacement technology” the difference is that this “commodity” is fundamental to our ENTIRE way of life, there is no replacement technology to this fantastically “dense” energy source and the few possibilities will take years and huge investments to even get close. Demand destruction in this case relates to the reduction of the world FOOD supply for kripe sakes!

Believe it or not, I didn’t come to “Peak Oil News” to debate (or rant) about the validity of peak oil, there are lots of sources of information and evidence available for those willing to read and decide for themselves. It is a very scary thing to get your head around, but here are our plans FWIW.

We are going the “Lone Farmer” route; relocating away from large populations, learning more agrarian skills, and preparing for the (hopefully) long slide. In the interim (5,10, ? years) I will continue working as a graphic designer, I can work anywhere there is dependable power and a satellite link to communicate with my rep back in town. This has been our plan for years for early/semi retirement, its just earlier than expected. We don’t look at it as a “bunker” so much as a “school” to teach our kids and grandkids (and ourselves) how our parents and grandparents got by without cheap oil.

We are “Ebaying” and yard-saling our late 20th century technology and replacing it with early 20th century technology; out with the electric guitar and in with the acoustic. Our small budget includes alternative power but also lots of “elbow grease” powered solutions.

I don’t believe there will be an oil “crash” soon, but there certainly could be an economic crash as the cost of oil and virtually everything else begins its inevitable rise. That is the wild card; how long do we have to prepare before the cost of preparing is out of reach or the necessities unavailable?

Pops

[Pops]

haha a blast from the past T! I recognized the title right way. One thing I was way wrong about back then was the extent to which I'd come here to debate and rant, LOL

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I')t seems to me that it is pretty obvious that any finite resource will have a mid point of availability. It isn’t a huge leap them to understand that the high point of discovery indicates the eventual high point of production.

[sparky]

.
pretty good read and some real good calls
Kenny » Wed 17 Mar 2004, 13:39:39 ............... get a clap , not bad prognostic
It feel like we are at the fulcrum point of production ,
balanced between demand and price in a no growth pattern
it is economically sustainable but there are a lot of debts blow out


I suppose we'll see how it turn out!

[SeaGypsy]

Nice work there Pops! Lots of grey areas to sort through, how much of what's discovered is actually recoverable, stuff like kerogen shale in the discovery mix with dubious utility, redefinitions etc. But keep up the good work!

[ROCKMAN]

Sparky - "fulcrum point". I like that...maybe better than "plateau". It gives a sense of movement/instability. Sorta like standing on a balance beam: OK until you fall off. Plateau sounds like a relatively safe place...it doesn't appear to be so.

[Subjectivist]

Reading this thread made me wonder how Matt Savinar and Ken Deffeyes are doing these days? Do they regret the media attention they got around 2005 o do they wish hey were still in the spotlight now?

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'R')eading this thread made me wonder how Matt Savinar and Ken Deffeyes are doing these days? Do they regret the media attention they got around 2005 o do they wish hey were still in the spotlight now?

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'D')effeyes is not a clown, you idiot. Deffeyes holds a B.S. in petroleum geology from the Colorado School of Mines and a Ph.D. in geology from Princeton University, studying under F.B. van Houten.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')
As of July, 2011 Deffeyes was still claiming peak oil still happened in 2005.

"2005 is still the year of greatest oil production. That makes me feel happy all the way down to the tips of my toes."

http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/curren ... -07-a.html

He stopped posting at his website soon thereafter. Things that make you go mmmmm.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghd5weu5Mpg

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')World class geologist for certain. But uranium ain't oil and gas.

[dashster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')
As of July, 2011 Deffeyes was still claiming peak oil still happened in 2005.

"2005 is still the year of greatest oil production. That makes me feel happy all the way down to the tips of my toes."

http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/curren ... -07-a.html

He stopped posting at his website soon thereafter. Things that make you go mmmmm.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghd5weu5Mpg

[peripato]

Tad Patzek's still around and writing about oil, un-sustainability - the whole macro view. However he's now resigned, like many other peak oilers, to the sh*t completely hitting the fan, with everyone more or less clueless or in complete denial as it all unfolds.

I find this chart of his very illuminating on getting to grips with the oil picture (below is the commentary)...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') set up this model of global oil production probably in 1995, or so, and never changed its parameters. I have only updated the blue data curve, which is a superposition of the old historic data from a variety of sources and the EIA data. By a lucky coincidence, or the Central Limit Theorem, or both, the world production of crude oil and lease condensate has been quite predictable for the last 17 years or so.

I want to point out that there will be future small Hubbert curves for the new Iraqi oil, GOM oil, the Arctic oil, etc., but the fundamentals will not change, just as they are unchanged for the Norwegian sector of the North Sea shown in my earlier post. At the time scale of this chart, the global oil production plateau surely looks like a peak.