I don't know what to say. If this is what some small, exceptional part of the world can do, just imagine what happens when the rest of the world imitates us. Let the Saudi's eat cake!
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy-tic ... on-growth/
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BP review: U.S. tops global oil, gas production growth
BP review: U.S. tops global oil, gas production growth
by John_A » Thu 13 Jun 2013, 10:37:40
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Re: BP review: U.S. tops global oil, gas production growth
by TheAntiDoomer » Thu 13 Jun 2013, 10:48:03
Great Post John_A!
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar
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Re: BP review: U.S. tops global oil, gas production growth
by westexas » Thu 13 Jun 2013, 11:01:52
On the gas side, Citi Research recently issued a report that would appear to be in substantial agreement with Art Berman's, Tad Patzek's and David Hughes' work.
I think that we have the RW (Real World) Wing of Citi and we have the FI (Fantasy Island) Wing of Citi (Ed Morse). The RW Wing estimates that we need about 17 BCF/day of new gas production every year to maintain the current level of production (66 BCF/day). This is equivalent to the three times 2011 peak rate of gas production from the Barnett Shale (5.5 BCF/day).
So, to maintain 66 BCF/day, over the next 10 years, we would only need 30 (peak production rate) Barnett Shale Plays.
An excerpt from a recent report by the RW Wing of Citi:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')●Aggregated detailed well production data (HPDI) for nearly 100% of total U.S. natural gas volumes reveals that almost 2/3s of total current natural gas production is from wells drilled just in the past five years or since a host of shale plays really began to alter the U.S. natural gas landscape.
●Meanwhile, we would note that the overall U.S. natural gas production decline rate (Ex. Appalachia) accelerated in 2012 and averaged ~26% due to a higher ratio of new wells that came on line in 2011 and which posted high first-year decline rates of ~50%. With fewer new wells brought on line last year, we expect decline rates to moderate to ~24 % in 2013 and ~23% in 2014 due to a lower proportion of new wells in the U.S. natural gas production mix.
●Nevertheless, the ~23-24% decline rates imply that domestic natural gas production would need to grow by ~17 Bcf/day annually just to offset natural declines and keep current production flat.
I think that we have the RW (Real World) Wing of Citi and we have the FI (Fantasy Island) Wing of Citi (Ed Morse). The RW Wing estimates that we need about 17 BCF/day of new gas production every year to maintain the current level of production (66 BCF/day). This is equivalent to the three times 2011 peak rate of gas production from the Barnett Shale (5.5 BCF/day).
So, to maintain 66 BCF/day, over the next 10 years, we would only need 30 (peak production rate) Barnett Shale Plays.
An excerpt from a recent report by the RW Wing of Citi:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')●Aggregated detailed well production data (HPDI) for nearly 100% of total U.S. natural gas volumes reveals that almost 2/3s of total current natural gas production is from wells drilled just in the past five years or since a host of shale plays really began to alter the U.S. natural gas landscape.
●Meanwhile, we would note that the overall U.S. natural gas production decline rate (Ex. Appalachia) accelerated in 2012 and averaged ~26% due to a higher ratio of new wells that came on line in 2011 and which posted high first-year decline rates of ~50%. With fewer new wells brought on line last year, we expect decline rates to moderate to ~24 % in 2013 and ~23% in 2014 due to a lower proportion of new wells in the U.S. natural gas production mix.
●Nevertheless, the ~23-24% decline rates imply that domestic natural gas production would need to grow by ~17 Bcf/day annually just to offset natural declines and keep current production flat.
On the oil side, if we assume a 10%/year oil production decline rate, we would only need about 10 new Bakken Plays (based on current production) over the next 10 years, in order to maintain current US oil production. Following is a link to an essay I wrote on some decline rate scenarios for US oil and gas production. Interesting enough, my assumption for the decline rate for existing US gas production (20%/year) is below the Citi Research estimate.
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013- ... l-exporter
In any case, no problemo. Based on above estimates (24%/year decline rate for existing gas, 10%/year for existing oil), we only need 30 new Barnett Shale plays and 10 new Bakken Plays in order to maintain current US oil & gas production for 10 years.[/quote]
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Re: BP review: U.S. tops global oil, gas production growth
by John_A » Thu 13 Jun 2013, 11:17:12
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')sn't it wonderful? U.S. energy demand fell 2.8% last year, the largest decline in the world yet we still have an economy (albeit a crappy one.)
It is amazing, isn't it? People in America are making the decision to use less, the economy is certainly in the worst recovery ever but it is recovering, and why those wanting to save the world from fossil fuel emissions aren't screaming about it at the top of their lungs as to how this can be used as a model to save the entire planet is beyond me. You would think that the US drop in CO2 emissions combined with some 8 years now post demand peak would have them writing articles, showering Obama with campaign contributions (not that he had anything to do with it, but still), and trying to push this type of less CO2, less energy demand model across the entire planet, saving the world, American style!
And yet...silence. Are they so ashamed of being American that they can't open their mouths lest they reveal their country of birth?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
') But folks are fed, the lights are on, and some still have jobs at the Walmart. The plateau and sides of the itty-bitty peak ain't so bad afterall. How does it last?
Well, according to the IEA, we've got quite a ways to go before overall peak or decline becomes the issue.
As far as Walmart jobs, I recommend that Americans strive for better. For example, send in a resume for these, assuming you have appropriate skills of course (always a good idea, appropriate skills, otherwise...opportunity might be limited).
http://www.eia.gov/about/careers/
Not a cashier position in sight, but undoubtedly appropriate skills will be required.
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Re: BP review: U.S. tops global oil, gas production growth
by ROCKMAN » Thu 13 Jun 2013, 11:26:53
pstarr – “The plateau and sides of the itty-bitty peak ain't so bad after all.” True. But for many of us…not all of us. And for a very few of us, like the Rockman, it has been great. Which is why I’ve never felt we were heading to an even a light version of a Mad Max world. The POD is a phenomenon that reaches almost every aspect of daily life but like a huge sea going vessel it changes course very slowly. One might argue whether we’ve reached the PO or not but it appears very clearly we’ve reached the POD. Excluding short terms spikes due to weather catastrophes and political upheavals the system keeps steaming on the same course with no significant factors to change its path very quickly. There will be worse times. And better times such as the US has seen with the uptick in oil production. But it pays to remember that uptick has come with a price: higher oil prices. I recently estimated the increase in gasoline/diesel prices in the last 10 years has cost Americans on the order of $250 billion MORE than they would have paid otherwise. Other factors have hurt the economy but it’s difficult to imagine higher energy prices haven’t taken their toll.
No cliffs, no more cheap oil, no magic technology to make electricity too cheap to meter, etc. We are living the future today. It will change significantly but over decades and not just a few years IMHO. But that change is inevitable
No cliffs, no more cheap oil, no magic technology to make electricity too cheap to meter, etc. We are living the future today. It will change significantly but over decades and not just a few years IMHO. But that change is inevitable
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Re: BP review: U.S. tops global oil, gas production growth
by John_A » Thu 13 Jun 2013, 11:31:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('westexas', '
')In any case, no problemo. Based on above estimates (24%/year decline rate for existing gas, 10%/year for existing oil), we only need 30 new Barnett Shale plays and 10 new Bakken Plays in order to maintain current US oil & gas production for 10 years.
')In any case, no problemo. Based on above estimates (24%/year decline rate for existing gas, 10%/year for existing oil), we only need 30 new Barnett Shale plays and 10 new Bakken Plays in order to maintain current US oil & gas production for 10 years.
This same type of analogy was used for finding Saudi Arabias at the world level, and I'm not so sure it works. The rule was what, 1 every 3 years or some such?
74 million a day in conventional crude in 2005, exponential decline of 10%, 8 years, 74*EXP(-0.1*8) would be the Excel command for those interested, and presto! Todays conventional production rate should be 33 million a day which means...gulp....we have found 41 million barrels a day of new production! 4 new saudi arabias!! They were right! A new Saudi Arabia every (8/4 = 2) two years! We must tell the world!!
But wait...how about we check new OPEC countries since 2005 and discover.....no new folks.
Not so sure generalizing like this works very well...unless someone knows where that 41 million a day came from? Because I sure can't find it anywhere.
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). Nuclear production in the US is growing at a snails pace. tax credits for renewables are being allowed to expire in many places. The sense of urgency for an energy transition to non-fossil fuel sources has greatly diminished since the fracking/shale story hit.
