[evilgenius]

It's going to be hard to change over to nat gas as a vehicle fuel source. Eventually there will be a huge push for it by those who have the power to do so. They won't count the cost of failure induced by the change wrought amongst those who live paycheck to paycheck, and can't easily absorb the changeover costs. That'll just get chalked up to the next recession, I suppose.

If it happens that way it'll be ironic because that kind of nat gas usage will severely change the supply/demand curve. It won't be the thing they think it will, able to enable the current rate of energy usage through to 2100. It will get them through the rest of their lives, probably, the average amongst them.

It could be the last great dead man's push for power in a world that has seen a lot of those. You can't dig up a dead man and grind his bones in a blender in order to exact revenge for what he's done. You have to stop him before he does it.

The funny thing is I don't see much going on in the form of sustainability that works. There is a lot of work going on toward a future that posits we will all sink back into the stone age. Backyard chickens and little gardens are very popular, but they won't feed 9 billion people. You gotta have complex and developed infrastructure to do that.

Capital has always been our way of approaching these kinds of situations, but capital might be broken. In the same way that healthcare in the US suffers from committees that fix suggested prices for procedures, and hide any comparison shopping from hospital to hospital, or that the price of communications are still too high years after its been possible for them to come down, the energy system is full of holes where capital ceases to perform as we commonly understand it should. Solar is like a great big mining stock scam. The conservatives won't allow basic research on anything that might threaten the money spigot, er, plan. The liberals enter in with so many preconceptions that only the extremes can function, the shiny city on the hill or total collapse, no workable in between.

There is a middle way. It isn't the middle way of the anthropomorphic universe model either, where we are here because this is the kind of universe we can survive in and that also explains the nature of the universe. There is time too, though less and less of it. We should be happy that this is happening at a time when man has grown so much as a corporate/societal being. We have both laws and societal conventions within which what needs to happen can happen, if we can choose to believe in them and not having gotten to the doorway begin to doubt and run scared, looking for xenophobia or jingoism to save us.

[Econ101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', ' ')"Just Wait!" they holler, frantically attaching wheels to the goalposts, "The good old days will be right back!"

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', ' ')The notion of peak oil is political not scientific.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', 'W')e are actually entering the good old days right now.

[Econ101]

Peak oil is a notion with, as it turns out, many definitions. It is a political science, not a hard science. It doesnt employ the scientific method and has no reproducable results. It only has a political hypothosis that says we are out or running out, depending on the definition.

Politics has a direct affect on the amount of oil produced. The research dollars and subsidies offered through the tax code, and outright public grants, have financed all of that engineering and reasearch used to produce artificial fuels. The Germans did a lot in WW2 as well. Its amazing how some will count the kitchen sink in the eroei of oil yet let the simple and obvious truths about public funding and energy slip right by. Thats the purpose of the notion of peak oil and peak oil politics: control public funds.

Energy is fungible. All crudes are chemically different just as palm oil is different. The natural gas produced from coal in the coal gasification plant in North Dakota is probably proof of peak oil in some minds but its just another example of how energy is fungible. Nobody cares if its palm oil, whale oil or shale oil as long as the lamp burns and the turbine spins. Its a distinction only a peak oiler would make in defense of a failed notion with rapidly waning political influences.

Oil production is being displaced by some of these artificial substances mentioned earlier. Maybe you haven't noticed that oil production and energy production in general will always match demand. If extra artifical substances that are not considered true oil are put into the system through the huge government subsidies made possible by peak oil politics and the notion of peak oil then some oil is left in the ground until needed. Its a simple concept really. Its cheaper to store it in the ground than in a tank.

The point of peak oil has always been moot. It was advanced and then tooled into a political scheme. There is no shortage of oil. The only evidence is to the contrary: oil production is higher year in and year out.

[Econ101]

The production of oil energy has been interupted by the false issues of peak oil and climate change. Development in the Arctic was stopped by peak oil political constituencies. That political action had a dramatic affect on oil production in North America. It resulted in everyone paying higher prices. We were forced to increase imports from the middle east evolving the chaos we see now. It also led to advances in technology that has given us shale gas and oil, a revolutionary supply that is burgeoning world wide as the new technologies are disseminated. In addition, the world is still in possession of all the other mind boggling reserves that are currently off limits politically. There is enough in Ca along to run this country for a generation, shale and otherwise.

The hysteria surrounding agriculture and the environment is simply an extension of the peak oil/climate change poltical science. The EPA would like to see all small farmers out of business and only huge corporations farming. Its a question of control. I doubt folks supporting agricultural and environmental hysteria have any ideas that dont involve some type of government involvement and control of some groups.

Right now the EPA is after the family corporate farm at every turn. This hysteria of yours offers no high ground for you and is no justification for the human suffering resulting from the peak oil political policies that have brought us energy shortages, human suffering thorugh higher prices and caused childern to go hungery.

[ROCKMAN]

Pops - Praise the LORD! Let me run outside and see if the sky is full of flying pigs! "We are actually entering the good old days right now." Finally econ and I agree on something!!!

Not just good ole days but the best of days. Big salary. Huge bonus potential. Perks out the ass (we actually have a fulltime in house masseuse). Hundreds of $millions in capex available to me and my partners to drill what we see fit. And that includes projects that have been sitting in my file cabinet for almost 15 years waiting for oil prices to get high enough.

And one of the best things: enough very expense scotch that I never have trouble falling asleep thinking about all those little people on the other side of the fence. It even helps blur the mental image of those shiny boxes coming in at Dover.

Life IS good.

[dinopello]

Predictions are meaningless until power acts based on them. This guy says oil is so plentiful in the US that the SPR is OBE

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')veryone knows these are lean times for the government, partly because the economy is not growing fast enough. Faster growth means more revenue from existing taxes. Because of that, every penny counts. That’s why it's time to take another look at a no-longer-needed asset the Federal government is holding in a handful of underground locations: It’s time to sell the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Since 2005, everything’s changed. The United States is no longer energy scarce, it is energy abundant. Fracking for natural gas and oil has put the United States back into the big leagues of the world’s energy producers.

Because oil production is growing so rapidly, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates by 2020, the US will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s biggest oil producing country.

If this is the case, do we still need to hoard oil?

[ROCKMAN]

dino- Mucho thanks. Now I know I can skip over any reports from the Milken Institute assuming this guy is indicative of their work.

Most here already know the facts but for the newbies:

“The United States is no longer energy scarce, it is energy abundant” First, the classic misdirection: he starts of talking about oil and then switches to “energy”. Mixing apples and oranges to confuse the storyline. While we may have decreased our imports lately, in 2012 we still imported about 3.9 BILLION bbls of oil. IOW we paid foreign producers about $350 BILLION. I can only assume his concept of energy no longer being “scarce” is vastly different than mine. Although to be honest oil hasn’t been scarce in the US thanks to domestic production and the imports…just been expense.

Next: “…has put the United States back into the big leagues of the world’s energy producers.” Again, mixing “oil” with “energy” to continue the deception. The US has never been out of “the big league” since the beginning of the oil age. We may not be the largest oil producer as we once were but we’re have always been in the top three of all oil producing countries. And still produce 83% of that of the largest current producer Russia.

And now I’ll switch and play his “energy” theme. As far as “energy” goes when you look at NG the US has been the biggest producer for most of the time since the beginning of the hydrocarbon age. Today the US and Russia run neck and neck for the top slot. Combined our two countries produce about half the NG on the planet.

He also does the ole apple/orange bait and switch again: “the IEA estimates by 2020, the US will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s biggest oil producing country”. Well da…we’re only just within about 10% of them now. What a gutsy call. LOL. Perhaps we will take the lead but that says nothing about how much oil the US will still be importing at that time. Which leads to his next big blind spot:

The SPR. As he seems to understand the SPR was developed to protect the US economy in case of a sudden disruption in imports. Given the health of US economy is still dependent upon imports and will be at least for decades even by the IEA’s optimism he must believe the potential geopolitical risk of oil import disruption has vanished. Of course it has…what could go wrong? So what if Iran is still trying to develop the bomb. So what if Israel has vowed to set the ME on fire if Iran succeeds. So what if China is gaining more control over global oil exports. So what if the majority of global oil production is controlled by national oil companies and not the free market oil companies. So what if major terrorist organizations have clearly identified not just the US but also the leadership of Saudi Arabia (the largest oil exporter on the planet) as targets.

Don’t worry. Just trust the thoughtful analysis of this lad from the Milken Institute. What could go wrong?

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'd')ino- Mucho thanks.

[ROCKMAN]

dino – Some might think the oil patch would like the potential for oil price spikes. But I think more management is afraid of how the govt would react if the free market jumped hard on such a situation. They fear the dreaded “excess profit” taxes and price fixing. Again, most won’t believe it, but the oil patch would be very happy with a nice stable non-spiking oil price. Eventually price spikes disrupt us as much as they do the economy.

Additionally his recommendation is pointless. I won't go into the details but there are very detailed CONGRESSIONAL laws that govern how the SPR is handled. In reality even the president has very little control over the SPR. Mucho restrictions that would actually take an act of Congress to change. If he or anyone else bothers to read those THOUSANDS of pages of regs they would understand. The Congress understood the potential to dick around with the SPR in the future and IMHO put in some rather surprising poison pills.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak oil is a notion with, as it turns out, many definitions

[ROCKMAN]

Pops - So I take it you're going to hang up those roller skates? Lotsa luck, buddy...I know how difficult that can be at times.

[yeahbut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')

I don't know what your motivation is but I'm tired of your spamming every thread with the same counterfactual opinions. There are comment boxes by the thousands just itching for unsubstantiated blather, time for you to take it there.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', 'T')he production of oil energy has been interupted by the false issues of peak oil and climate change. Development in the Arctic was stopped by peak oil political constituencies. That political action had a dramatic affect on oil production in North America. It resulted in everyone paying higher prices. We were forced to increase imports from the middle east evolving the chaos we see now. It also led to advances in technology that has given us shale gas and oil, a revolutionary supply that is burgeoning world wide as the new technologies are disseminated. In addition, the world is still in possession of all the other mind boggling reserves that are currently off limits politically. There is enough in Ca along to run this country for a generation, shale and otherwise.

The hysteria surrounding agriculture and the environment is simply an extension of the peak oil/climate change poltical science. The EPA would like to see all small farmers out of business and only huge corporations farming. Its a question of control. I doubt folks supporting agricultural and environmental hysteria have any ideas that dont involve some type of government involvement and control of some groups.

Right now the EPA is after the family corporate farm at every turn. This hysteria of yours offers no high ground for you and is no justification for the human suffering resulting from the peak oil political policies that have brought us energy shortages, human suffering thorugh higher prices and caused childern to go hungery.

[ROCKMAN]

ad - That's the irony, eh? "...unless the evidence was strong and of concern to the media owners." You mean, as an example, how quickly the media understood the dangers of smoking and spread the word far and wide to protect the citizens from a proven threat. And the govt response to this huge outpouring of “proof”: those few words printed on the side of a pack loaded with tobacco grown by farmers who, last I heard, still get breaks from the govt. Also, last I heard, the US was the major producer of cigs to the rest of the world.

And this is the system that some expect would take actions to negatively affect much broader (and more powerful) components of the economy? What’s that saying about da Nile?

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'a')d - That's the irony, eh? "...unless the evidence was strong and of concern to the media owners." You mean, as an example, how quickly the media understood the dangers of smoking and spread the word far and wide to protect the citizens from a proven threat. And the govt response to this huge outpouring of “proof”: those few words printed on the side of a pack loaded with tobacco grown by farmers who, last I heard, still get breaks from the govt. Also, last I heard, the US was the major producer of cigs to the rest of the world.

And this is the system that some expect would take actions to negatively affect much broader (and more powerful) components of the economy? What’s that saying about da Nile?

[ROCKMAN]

ad - "we can only tackle these epic issues collectively". I think you hit the nail right on the head. And there's the problem IMHO: no group can function collectively without leadership. And we do have leadership. Unfortunately it's fractured into various groups which sometimes have counter goals. Perhaps when the POD gets serious enough there will be an effective consolidation. But I have my doubts.