[SeaGypsy]

Shorty, this is the kind of discussion went on at Easter Island when the natives went from harvesting the flat land timber to harvesting the slopes.

[Econ101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'S')horty, this is the kind of discussion went on at Easter Island when the natives went from harvesting the flat land timber to harvesting the slopes.

[SeaGypsy]

It is safe enough to assume some folks on Easter Island would have noticed and been concerned about increased effort being required to keep the fires burning. There has been and is a massive increase in effort to keep the status quo of oil supply going. The EROEI of oil and other FF's is so high that this increased effort is so far only tripling prices from a decade ago. It's not about how much the world produces now, but the continuum of increasing effort for sustained outcome versus the exponential function.

[Econ101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', 'H')ad we allowed normal development of known resources to go on in the 1970s

[Ferretlover]

"Will Peak Oil doom reality the peakoil.com website? Yes. Plain and simple.
When people are scrambling to keep their homes, food on the table, their jobs, there will be a lot less interest, if not availability, of the Internet and its sites.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', 'A')s I have been stating for over a year now the impact of the oil shales will be to return oil pricing to a price competitive model made possible by increasing supplies. Peak oil politics limited supply and made a supply competitive model possible. This model assures us of the highest possible price and limited supply. A price competitive model assures us of reliable supplies and competitive price, as it was prior to the 1970s and the advent of peak oil politics.

This is currently the headline on MSN-MONEY:

US OIL OUTPUT BOOM SETS OFF WORLD-WIDE SUPPLY SHOCK:

Rising production will help meet most nations' demand in the next 5 years, even if the global economy picks up, leaving little room for OPEC to lift output without risking lower prices, the IEA says.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', '
')I came to the site first as SOS. I only posted on the front page. Eventually I looked at the forum. Econ101 was first used there on a new computer. For a while I was using both because of auto login features but am using Econ101 now almost exclusively.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', 'I') think what we are seeing today: 1) Politically expedient bengazi lies permeating our government for political gain 2) in a politically fascist style the government seizing AP phone records 3) Government using the IRS to silence political enemies and now the information coming out that the EPA is showing the same type of discrimination that the IRS was showing causes one to wonder about the accuracy of your statements pstarr. Also the unimaginable amount of oil we now know are in the shales dont need a political shill.

Peak oil politics is the real shill. It is holding back production in the US right now. We wouldnt even need the shales yet but peak oil politics has delivered this gift from God just in the nick of time.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', '
')
LOL.

Peak oil was an effective political policy. It's used to cement voting blocks. It united enviros, liberals, school teachers, 1960s radicals and their offspring. Now, its not a complete joke, but it is not a real physical constraint. Its known we have as much as we need in any relevant time frame.

My question would be what is the point of peak oil? Is it to sell electric cars, windmills or solar panels?

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', '
')So what you are saying is that you are only trying to forcast the future of oil? You are checking the "wood pile" so-to-speak?

If due diligence is the reason why the resistance to the obviously good news that we have more then we need? It seems to me we should be celebrating. I know I am.

American Shale development technologies are being deployed world wide. The North Dakota production graph is going to be repeated over and over again. Its no longer trying to find some investors to drill an isolated pool. Thats what peak oil politics reduced the oil business to. Now, the news of the shales and the question: what will these enormous supplies do the the peak oil website?

I think they will change the focus. First some will be defensive, anger and frustration will be evident from some of the peak oil committed. There may be some frustrating transitional times, but anger and frustration will give way to realization and acceptance. The website will eventually be populated by those embracing the worlds oil production and its contribution to our high quality of life.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', '
')
Well Keith, have you ever heard of ANWR? That was the next development after Prudhoe Bay and that was going to keep the Alaska pipeline full. After that there were more federally controlled lands that were going to keep it full. Thats when they stopped it. Prudhoe is contributing less and less and this will continue over the next 50 yrs. Had the development continued in an orderly fashion we wouldnt need North Dakota right now and the world probably wouldnt be after the shales. The shales are a gift of peak oil politics just as the war and mayhem of the middle east are.

The peak politics politcal constituency that I speak of includes enviros, peak oil people, climate change groups, liberal and left leading big government types, tax and spend liberals, solar panel companies, the nuclear industry, wind industry, hunt and gatherer types and probably survivalist as well, among others.

The peak oil politics continues up there today. Just this month the Obama admin took over 50% of Alaskas remaining federally controlled mineral resources off line. Over 90% of Alaska is under federal control. Here is a link if you want to know why oil prices are high:

http://newmediajournal.us/indx.php/item/6478

Just imagine all of that oil kept off limits since Jimmy Carter and the Shales!!!

Just imagine 1 mill/B/D flowing into a huge refinery in North Dakota, out of federal control and the other 18 million flow the way they used to. Your gas prices would fall.

Our oil imports will never fall to zero, but they are falling and will fall further. Its our exports that will keep the net falling. Production will keep peak oil in the realm of radical thought unsported by nothing more than emotional conviction.

Production charts will continue straight up, monetary policy and its effects on the diminishing value of the dollar will continued to be used as proof of diminishing supply even in the face of increasing supply and known reserves! But facts are winning. The USGS just tripled the inventory in North Dakota you know and they are as conservative as they come,

This will all have an effect on the websites focus. Eventually the good news will be embraced as fact overcomes and wins the day. Everyone will celebrate, Wide Spread Panic will play. Phish will make a guest appearance. The oil companies will be honored and celebrated. The web site will host a panel of those that correctly saw the future and everyone will cheer!! RM will give us all a chance to "buy-in" to a play.

[Econ101]

I have proved peak oil!

You just spent a whole lot of posting time telling us production is not up?



that chart represents flow. New flow that the world didnt have. At current flow rates, which are obviously rising quickly, there is a generation of pumping to do according to the conservative estimate recently made by the USGS.

If folks are having a harder and harder time affording their lives its not because of oil. In fact if you want an easier time affording your life get involved with oil. Steady work, good wages. What made America great is still rewarded out there. What makes America weak is evident in the cities and the decay in the human condition. Its all a result of politics, and peak oil politics are not helping.

The website will have to come to grips with these burgeoning flows (see graph above). Expect more of the same from Tx, Ca, Utah, Wyo, Montana, Africa, China and Europe. The technology is being deployed now.

There are tremendous reserves waiting for development in Venezuala and other parts of South America as well as Brazil. The Gulf of Mexico and both american coasts are rich with crude. The generational supplies known to exist in the Arctic are still there too! Russia and EXXON are going after 10% - 20% of it right now.

This is eventually going to change the focus here, or force another change in the definition of peak oil!

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', 'I') have proved peak oil!

You just spent a whole lot of posting time telling us production is not up?



that chart represents flow. New flow that the world didnt have. At current flow rates, which are obviously rising quickly, there is a generation of pumping to do according to the conservative estimate recently made by the USGS.

If folks are having a harder and harder time affording their lives its not because of oil. In fact if you want an easier time affording your life get involved with oil. Steady work, good wages. What made America great is still rewarded out there. What makes America weak is evident in the cities and the decay in the human condition. Its all a result of politics, and peak oil politics are not helping.

The website will have to come to grips with these burgeoning flows (see graph above). Expect more of the same from Tx, Ca, Utah, Wyo, Montana, Africa, China and Europe. The technology is being deployed now.

There are tremendous reserves waiting for development in Venezuala and other parts of South America as well as Brazil. The Gulf of Mexico and both american coasts are rich with crude. The generational supplies known to exist in the Arctic are still there too! Russia and EXXON are going after 10% - 20% of it right now.

This is eventually going to change the focus here, or force another change in the definition of peak oil!

[radon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', '
')The peak politics politcal constituency that I speak of includes enviros, peak oil people, climate change groups, liberal and left leading big government types, tax and spend liberals, solar panel companies, the nuclear industry, wind industry, hunt and gatherer types and probably survivalist as well, among others.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', 'N')ew flow that the world didnt have. At current flow rates, which are obviously rising quickly, there is a generation of pumping to do according to the conservative estimate recently made by the USGS.

[Econ101]

Whats your point? They dont want the liability of predicting where the money is.

[SeaGypsy]

You are the one with a liability around here Shorty; where is the oil supply to make flow rates match demand for the next "100 years before peak"?

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', 'W')hats your point? They dont want the liability of predicting where the money is.

[ROCKMAN]

Pops – “Fracking is a symptom, not a cure.” Well put. IMHO the same could be said for oil prices. Like I said the other day it’s beyond my understanding how some think the entire dynamic doesn’t hinge on pricing. That somehow we’ll have an ever expanding supply of FF’s at lower prices.

Remember what I said about teaching pigs to roller skate? Put the roller blades up, bubba…it ain’t working. LOL