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THE US Trade Gap Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Unread postby Pops » Thu 12 May 2005, 12:50:35

Yep, ole Sam takes a hit…

“Spending on discretionary items like spring fashions and patio furniture was unusually weak, the retailer said.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/retail_walmart_earns_dc
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Unread postby EnemyCombatant » Thu 12 May 2005, 13:00:22

On CNBC, the analysts said they thought it was due to consumers cutting back because of high gasoline prices. So if gas prices continue to go down, the trade deficit should go back up.
Now why didn't I take the blue pill.
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Unread postby MagnoliaFan » Thu 12 May 2005, 14:49:08

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=8471243

Wal-Mart's sales have suffered in recent quarters as soaring gasoline prices cut into household budgets, and the world's No. 1 retailer said it expects energy prices to weigh on second-quarter results too.

And these traitors have the gall to say...

Still, the company said it expects trends to improve in the second half of the year and it remained optimistic about the U.S. economy.

They've destroyed the US economy and now they're wondering why everyone is too poor to buy their crap.
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Unread postby bruin » Thu 12 May 2005, 15:00:26

This brings up an interesting point. Seems like most of our "luxury" items are imported while the essentials like food are made here.

Perhaps the first phase of PO will be a big slash on imports while our exports keep up pace. Sounds like there is a silver lining in here somewhere.
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Unread postby nth » Thu 12 May 2005, 15:30:12

Walmart= China import.

This is a small correction for the huge surge beginning of the year.
I think other imports will make up for drop in China import.
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Unread postby EnemyCombatant » Thu 12 May 2005, 17:32:05

I don't think Walmart is too worried.

The idea is to sell to the Asian and Latin American countries.

I read somewhere that they are building a Walmart near one of the pyramids in Mexico.
Now why didn't I take the blue pill.
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Unread postby Malthus » Thu 12 May 2005, 19:45:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ow that is surprising – especially the narrowing with China!

Wonder how China-Mart is doing?


January 2005 2,609.2 17,863.7 -15,254.5
February 2005 3,082.4 16,953.6 -13,871.2
March 2005 3,305.4 16,209.5 -12,904.2

True on month to month basis however wrong on year to year basis, still signficantly up comparedto the same period in 2004

January 2004 2,593.1 14,069.7 -11,476.6
February 2004 3,033.7 11,314.8 -8,281.1
March 2004 3,372.5 13,807.9 -10,435.4

Still if you look at yearly data you will see a trend for imports to botom around march-april and then shoot up in the summer. So one can argue due to the fact that february deficit numbers were very high for that period of the year one can see a few weak monthly import reports ahead till may at best before chinese goods stocks are depleted and the american consumer goes on with his spending spree.
statistic data here

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/bal ... .html#2005
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Unread postby nth » Fri 13 May 2005, 10:56:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Malthus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ow that is surprising – especially the narrowing with China!

Wonder how China-Mart is doing?


January 2005 2,609.2 17,863.7 -15,254.5
February 2005 3,082.4 16,953.6 -13,871.2
March 2005 3,305.4 16,209.5 -12,904.2

True on month to month basis however wrong on year to year basis, still signficantly up comparedto the same period in 2004

January 2004 2,593.1 14,069.7 -11,476.6
February 2004 3,033.7 11,314.8 -8,281.1
March 2004 3,372.5 13,807.9 -10,435.4

Still if you look at yearly data you will see a trend for imports to botom around march-april and then shoot up in the summer. So one can argue due to the fact that february deficit numbers were very high for that period of the year one can see a few weak monthly import reports ahead till may at best before chinese goods stocks are depleted and the american consumer goes on with his spending spree.
statistic data here

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/bal ... .html#2005


Exactly what I was saying. Except you went and wrote down the numbers. :)
Thanks.
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Unread postby Pops » Fri 13 May 2005, 11:58:12

I doubt they are very worried either with a 2.5 billion dollar profit in Q1 vs 2.2 in ’04 but it was below expectations, which is what the market is all about.

It’s also an indication of how quickly increases in gas prices affect lower income people.
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Unread postby nth » Fri 13 May 2005, 13:56:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')It’s also an indication of how quickly increases in gas prices affect lower income people.


Yes, but only lower income people.
Target is going through the roof!
I think Nieman Marcus is doing well too

The sad part is I don't see a drop in gasoline demands
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Trade gap widens

Unread postby frankthetank » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 08:37:58

to 57 Billion...this can't go on forever, can it?
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Unread postby frankthetank » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 08:47:49

Heres the link...mostly due to oil imports...who would've thought

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8168865/
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Unread postby Permanently_Baffled » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 08:51:47

And yet the dollar is stronger than it has been for months. Economics is such a grey area!!! :roll:
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Unread postby Cola-Is-Petroleum » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 09:16:17

Perhaps it's cognitive dissonance on a mass scale? But that won't hold off the problem forever.
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Unread postby frankthetank » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 09:24:17

The U.S. imported $19.4 billion of crude oil in April, the second highest amount on record.
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Unread postby crude_intentions » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 10:04:29

Meanwhile the Canadian Trade Surplus Increased :-D

Trade surplus widens to $5.1 billion in April from $4.8 billion in March

God I wish I was Canadian :cry:
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Re: Trade gap widens

Unread postby FoxV » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 10:25:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 't')o 57 Billion...this can't go on forever, can it?


it can go on as long as the debt gets financed by foreign banks and low interest rates allow the housing bubble to grow.

but hey, guess what T-Bill sales are going down because foreigner's want a higher interest rate to buy worthless american paper.

so quite a pickel:
Raise interest rates to attarct foreign banks; mortgage holders crash
Keep interest rates low to prop up the housing bubble; T-Bill sales crash
(add to this oil prices/GM Layoffs/SUV sales, I think we're seeing it all fall apart right now)

I doubt it'll all make it through the summer, but historically crashes are in October
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Unread postby FoxV » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 10:32:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crude_intentions', 'M')eanwhile the Canadian Trade Surplus Increased :-D


look more closely at those numbers crude'

that trade surplus of $5.1B is including a Trade surplus of $8.2B to the US. Giving us Canucks a Trade deficit of $3.1B to the rest of the world

So if the US goes belly up, so does Canada (keep in mind we're 1/10th the US population when looking at those numbers)
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Unread postby Colorado-Valley » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 11:20:18

And if the U.S. crashes, we're all moving up to Canada enmasse ...
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Unread postby MicroHydro » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 11:25:46

Alan Greenspan is hoping it can go on until after he leaves office in January 2006. 'Après moi le Deluge'
"The world is changed... I feel it in the water... I feel it in the earth... I smell it in the air... Much that once was, is lost..." - Galadriel
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